| Home / College Guide / What do you think Boris Johnson is doing in Germany and France? |
| Posted on Thursday, August 22 @ 00:00:08 PDT |
European powers have already ruled out renegotiating Britains departure from the EU. by James Brownsell Boris Johnson met German Chancellor Angela Merkel on his first overseas trip as the United Kingdoms prime minister [Fabrizio Bensch/Reuters] London, United Kingdom - There were cries of Stop Brexit from the crowd gathered in Berlin on Wednesday afternoon, as UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson met German Chancellor Angela Merkel and sat awkwardly as the band selected for the occasion struck up the two nations anthems. Ever the optimist, Johnson is ostensibly in town to convince the Germans not only to abandon their long-held position on the manner of Britains departure from the European Union, breaking with the solidarity of the other 26 members, but to then work to convince those other nations to come into line with Britains vision of the future. That vision, it is fair to say, hasnt been spectacularly forthcoming - which Johnson admitted at a joint press conference. If we approach this with sufficient patience and optimism, then we can get this done, said Johnson, adding it is in the final furlong generally when the horses change places and the winning deal appears. If Johnson fails to win Merkel over, he will have another go on Thursday, as he meets with French President Emmanuel Macron on much the same mission.
Who is Boris Johnson, Britains new prime minister? At the heart of the problem is what is known as the Irish backstop. Its a contingency plan in the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by the European Commission and the administration of Johnsons predecessor, Theresa May, to avoid any hard border being drawn up again on the island of Ireland. It states that Northern Ireland should remain in regulatory alignment - following established standards for health, safety, food and so forth - with the EU until another solution becomes apparent. This has proven unpopular, as it means that either the rest of the UK must also remain in alignment with the EU, therefore being bound to it without any say in it, or Northern Ireland will be set aside from the rest of the UK, being treated much like the Republic of Ireland, which critics say is a loss of the UKs national sovereignty, a step towards Irish reunification, and therefore politically unacceptable. But sharing Johnsons spirit of optimism, Merkel on Wednesday suggested there may be some flexibility in the EUs approach. The backstop has always been a fall-back option until this issue is solved, and one knows how one wants to do that, Merkel said.
It was said we will probably find a solution in two years. But we could also find one in the next 30 days. Why not? European solidarity So if the problem is with the UKs border with Ireland, why is Johnson going to Germany and France? Irish officials reject British calls to renegotiate Brexit Ireland and the UK cannot negotiate, said Jennifer Cassidy, a former Irish diplomatic attache to the EU. The UK has to negotiate with the European Union. But Johnson is not in Brussels, as he has refused to meet EU leaders as a group until the backstop is dropped. Merkel and Macron are not the EU. Its kind of ironic, after hearing that the main reason for wanting to leave the EU was that the UK did not want to bow to France and Germany - which was never the case, though they are powerful actors - and it is now as clear as the sun that Johnsons first port of call is to go and bow to France and Germany, Cassidy told Al Jazeera. His aim is to divide and conquer, a classic strategy of the UK, but I personally dont think its going to work. Alistair Jones, associate professor in De Montford Universitys department of politics, says Johnson will not be able to drive a wedge between Europes major players.
However, from a more cynical perspective, he will return to the UK and have some one else to blame for Britain crashing out of the EU, he told Al Jazeera. The nasty foreigners refused to budge, despite him asking nicely. Its part of his positive agenda; if we all rally round and muck in, we can overcome anything. The whole thing is a charade by Johnson, to bolster his own position and the narrative, in advance of a general election, should he lose a vote of no confidence next month. Boris Johnson ✔@BorisJohnson I have written to @eucopresident about key aspects of the UK’s approach to Brexit, problems with the “backstopâ€& the Government’s commitment to the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement whether there is a deal with the EU or not.https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/pm-letter-to-donald-tusk-19-august-2019 … 4,432 8:21 PM - Aug 19, 2019 Twitter Ads info and privacy 3,826 people are talking about this On Monday, Johnson - who rose to office with support from 0.24 percent of Britains population - wrote to European Council president Donald Tusk, saying the backstop was undemocratic, and asking that it be removed from the Withdrawal Agreement.
He did not, however, propose any alternatives, only suggesting the backstop be replaced with a loose commitment to sort out alternative arrangements by the end of a post-Brexit transition period. Tusk immediately rejected the letter. The backstop is an insurance to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland unless and until an alternative is found, he tweeted. Those against the backstop and not proposing realistic alternatives in fact support re-establishing a border. Even if they do not admit it. The EU position is that the Withdrawal Agreement as it stands is the best and only deal on offer, having been negotiated and finalised with Mays government. But Mark Shanahan, professor of politics at the University of Reading, said Johnsons strategy was to act as if the past three years hadnt happened. He is approaching the EU in a very British way: saying nothing new but talking very loudly as if his Etonian enunciation will make all the difference, he told Al Jazeera. The Irish, especially in the person of [Taoiseach / Prime Minister] Leo Varadkar, arent impressed by his boosterism. Theyve heard it all before and now definitely hold all the best cards in this particular game of poker.
Is his trip to Germany actually to have a meaningful discussion or just to show the British tabloids that he’s being busy? I would suggest the latter. No-deal Brexit could cause UK food, fuel and medicine shortages Blame-shifting Berlin has repeatedly stated that the deal will not be reopened, and that German industries are ready for the effects of a no-deal Brexit, which many economists agree would be bad for many EU economies, but disastrous for the UK. The visit to Germany is for domestic consumption rather than any real expectation that Germany would back down, said Michele Chang, professor of European politics at the College of Europe in Bruges. The Leave campaign had previously argued that Germany would not allow the UK to leave without a deal because they import so many cars from Germany, so he would want to be seen as at least engaging with Germany now. The UK - politicians included - have not demonstrated a strong grasp of the EU in general. Shanahan agrees: There is a large exercise in blame-shifting going on, and if Johnson can shift the narrative so that it suggests hes a willing dealmaker, he can blame the EU and its totemic German heart when it all goes wrong and the UK launches into the no-deal abyss.
Ahead of their Thursday meeting, Macron reiterated that Johnsons proposal was a non-starter, saying that renegotiation of the deal was not an option, and that the EU would not accept the blame for Britain crashing out. It will be the responsibility of the British government, always, because firstly it was the British people that decided Brexit, and the British government has the possibility up to the last second to revoke Article 50, he said. Article 50 is the legal mechanism used to withdraw from the EU, and was triggered by Britain in March 2017. It has a two-year deadline, but the UK was granted an extension after May failed repeatedly to win approval for the exit deal in the UK parliament. Reaching the summit The meetings with Merkel and Macron are Johnsons first test of statesmanship as he embarks on his prime ministerial stewardship. This weekends G7 summit in France marks one month since Johnson took office, and all eyes will be on his approach to dealing with global powers having cast Britain adrift from the worlds largest trading bloc. With a working parliamentary majority of just one MP, Johnson is desperate for a win at the summit to shore up domestic support. A post-Brexit trade deal with the United States is seen as key to Johnsons future in power.
Luckily, he and US President Donald Trump are already allies. I share expectations that the gushing presidential support for Johnson to date will be solidified with numerous pronouncements from President Trump, with some pointed references that a hard Brexit is brilliant and just what the sulky continentals deserve, said Tim Kane, a Republican economist at Stanford Universitys Hoover Institution. The American voter isnt following UK politics and cannot fathom the Brexit turmoil, so the G7 summit in our eyes will be Boriss introduction, and a defining moment. But there is something of an imbalance between the US, the worlds superpower, and Britain, where a couple of inches of snow shuts down half the countrys transport infrastructure. Macron told reporters on Wednesday a US trade deal would represent an historic vassalisation of the UK. The US can afford to be a realist, said Cassidy, now a lecturer in politics at Oxford University. They pull out of the Iran deal, for example, and, other than some light condemnation from other countries, they can get their own way. Britain could once do what it wanted, too, but this is the 11th hour, where the mindset of empire is going to be removed.
The EU is not going to blink.
|
|
| |
|
