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| Adidas creates HBCU masterclass with Emmy-award winner |
| Posted on Thursday, August 13 @ 00:02:55 PDT (2 reads) | |
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Adidas and academy award-winning costume designer ruth e. Carter are bringing the masterclass experience to an hbcu. Plc detroit (pensole lewis college of business & design) is partnering with adidas and ruth e. Carter on a costume design masterclass through the institution’s online learning program, eplc. The course begins august 17, and applications to be part of the cohort are now available.
plc detroit president dr. D’wayne edwards spoke about the honor of working with carter.
“our relationship with ruth e. Carter began with a masterclass, where she guided four plc students in designing dresses for her awards ceremonies,” said dr. D’wayne edwards, president of plc detroit. “In 2025, she collaborated with plc alumni on the ruth e. Carter apparel creation stu/deo by adidas. Today, we invite aspiring creatives worldwide to learn from her through our online platform, eplc. Her groundbreaking career inspires us to open doors for the next generation to shape the future of design.”
the masterclass is set to run across eight weeks and follows the program’s inaugural cohort last school year. Last year’s course centered on showcasing carter’s approach to afrofuturism through costume design and visual storytelling. This year’s experience is set to follow the same format as last year’s class.
carter, a hampton university graduate, spoke about her partnership with plc detroit and adidas for the masterclass.
“afrofuturism has always been about expanding our imagination—about seeing ourselves in worlds that honor our past while designing the future. Costume design is storytelling. It requires research, cultural respect, and the courage to continually evolve your craft. I’m proud to be part of a collaboration like this. Support from institutions like plc detroit and partners like adidas is critical because it invests in the growth and development of artists. When brands champion creative education, they help open doors for the next generation of designers to discover their voice, shape their vision, and step fully into their purpose.” — Ruth e. Carter
the masterclass comes on the heels of her academy award nomination for sinners, along with her academy award wins for best costume design for marvel films black panther and black panther: wakanda forever. |
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| A new model: NEPA consortium working to create physician pipeline here |
| Posted on Thursday, August 13 @ 00:02:55 PDT (3 reads) | |
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Scranton times tribune a new model: nepa consortium working to create physician pipeline here jeff horvath, the times-tribune, scranton, pa. Thu, august 13, 2026 at 12:02 am utc 4 min read add yahoo as a preferred source to see more of our stories on google.
scranton — a collaborative initiative providing local clinical training opportunities for aspiring doctors is working in scranton and could be a model for the rest of the country as officials here and elsewhere strive to address a physician shortage, stakeholders involved in the northeast pennsylvania clinical education consortium said wednesday.
led by coordinator lackawanna college, the consortium connects medical students from several colleges of osteopathic medicine in the northeast with local clinical partners — commonwealth health, scranton primary health care center, the wright center, allied services and others — providing them opportunities to train at local hospitals and healthcare facilities. The goal is to create a pipeline of doctors who might plant roots and practice here, bolstering the physician workforce in a city and region with pronounced healthcare needs.
the innovative model uses the community as its clinical network, where community institutions, as opposed to a particular medical school, serve as a hub for osteopathic medical training, lackawanna college president and chief innovation officer jill murray, ph.D, said. Participating students spend a year in the scranton area completing clinical rotations for their third year of osteopathic medical school.
advertisement advertisement stakeholders gathered wednesday at regional hospital of scranton to celebrate the consortiums success and tout its potential as a template for partnerships in other communities. Officially launched in 2024 with nine medical students participating in the first year, the consortiums capacity has grown since, with 36 participating this year.
mark speicher, ph.D., The american association of colleges of osteopathic medicines senior vice president for research, learning and innovation, touted the consortium as mutually beneficial for both the local healthcare partners and the participating osteopathic medical schools. At a time when many medical schools are facing increasing difficulty finding clinical training sites, we dont have that problem here, he said.
the prospect of medical students who train here returning to the region to practice is a potential downstream benefit that excites officials and organizations with a vested interest in the long-term health of the regions medical workforce. Among them is the nonprofit tenor health foundation that acquired commonwealth health and its scranton and wilkes-barre hospitals earlier this year.
were seeing the shortage and how difficult it is to recruit, and my philosophy is if we provide for a good educational environment the students will stay, said radha savitala, tenor health foundations president and board chair. They will make this their home if they are not from here, and if they are from the region, (theyll) want to come back.
advertisement advertisement david karpe, a 30-year-old medical student at the university of new england college of osteopathic medicine training here through the consortium, could be a future example. His is one of three schools participating in the consortium, the others being the philadelphia college of osteopathic medicine and touro college of osteopathic medicine.
my wife and i, weve been here for a little while (and) weve pretty much decided that we would love to stay as practicing physicians because we love the community here, he said. I think that the community definitely is in need for physicians, and … even when i was applying for medical school i remember how important it was for me to practice in a community that needs me and (where) i would feel, like, appreciated and i would feel like im actually having an impact, as opposed to just sort of like a cog in the system.
i think that there are tons of opportunities here to succeed, karpe continued. Again, when you collaborate, you have all these institutions coming together, youre not fighting for individual resources. You have access to this patient population, to that hospital, to these physicians, and you start to feel like a part of that community. … You go into being a practicing physician already knowing your patients, your population, where the need is and how you can contribute to that, and so all these things come together and they make me excited to stay here, to train, to be practicing in the area.
a local healthcare landscape made stronger by a pipeline of future physicians also promises broader benefits for the population at large.
advertisement advertisement healthcare is the reason people come to stay and live in a community, democratic state rep. Bridget kosierowski, a longtime registered nurse, said wednesday. It is about housing, it is about education, but the most important thing is our health.
speicher, the american association of colleges of osteopathic medicine official, identified the consortium model here as a replicable and cost effective template for other communities looking to create similar workforce pipelines to meet their own healthcare needs.
we are working hard to discover and develop more scrantons, speicher said. We are working with schools and communities around the country that are in need of healthcare. Were trying to identify innovative leaders like you all … who can provide us with the leadership that is specific to that community just like happened here in scranton.
we know there is untapped community support for clinical education because you showed us there was untapped community support for clinical education, he said.
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| Cote de Pablo Net Worth 2026: More of Our Favorite Ziva David |
| Posted on Thursday, August 13 @ 00:02:55 PDT (3 reads) | |
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Her magnetic presence and undeniable talent, cote de pablo, have captured the hearts of millions around the globe. Read about her beginnings and rise to success, and for those who have been wondering, here’s cote de pablo net worth.
cote de pablo, the chilean-american actress, has made a name for herself in the entertainment industry with her exceptional talent and captivating on-screen presence. Her breakthrough role as ziva david in the popular television series “ncis” earned her critical acclaim and established her as a vital part of the show’s success.
beyond her television success, cote de pablo has also showcased her versatility as an actress in various theater productions, receiving admiration for her impeccable performances and irresistible charm. Her exceptional contributions to the craft have earned her an array of accolades and recognition from fans and industry insiders.
cote de pablo – net worth
cote de pablo has an estimated net worth of $6 million. The actress accumulated wealth from her successful acting career, particularly her long-running role as ziva david in the hit television series “ncis.” Her involvement in theater productions and other screen projects has contributed to her financial success.
cote de pablo – short bio
born maría josé de pablo fernández on november 12, 1979, cote de pablo is a celebrated actress known for her captivating performances. Hailing from a chilean-american background, she was born in santiago, chile. Growing up, cote had a close-knit family supporting passion.
in her early years, cote de pablo displayed her talent and dedication to acting, participating in school plays and community theater. She pursued her education at arvida middle school in florida and later attended new world school of the arts, where she honed her skills and nurtured her love for performing.
cote enrolled at carnegie mellon university in pittsburgh, pennsylvania, continuing her academic journey. There, she further refined her craft and gained valuable knowledge in theater. With her solid foundation and determination, cote de pablo embarked on a remarkable career that would establish her as one of the industry’s most talented and versatile actresses.
cote de pablo – career and achievements
cote de pablo began her acting journey with early roles that set the foundation for her successful career. In 1994, she made her television debut in the show “vivo por elena,” where she portrayed the character of margot. This opportunity allowed her to showcase her talent and catch the attention of industry insiders.
in the following years, cote de pablo continued to build her resume with appearances in various television shows and films. In 2001, she appeared in the tv series “the street” as fiona and gained valuable experience working alongside seasoned actors. She also debuted in 2004 with the movie “the last rites of ransom pride,” playing the role of bruja.
however, it was in 2005 that cote de pablo landed the role that would catapult her to international fame. She joined the cast of the long-running television series “ncis” as ziva david, a skilled and complex mossad agent. Her portrayal of ziva captured the hearts of viewers worldwide and established her as a talented actress in the industry.
after her successful tenure on “ncis,” cote de pablo continued to make waves in the entertainment industry. In 2013, she starred in the theatrical production of “the jury” at the vineyard theatre in new york city, showcasing her talent. Her performance received critical acclaim and further solidified her reputation as a versatile actress.
in 2016, cote de pablo made her highly anticipated return to television with the mini-series “the dovekeepers.” Based on the best-selling novel by alice hoffman, the series showcased her acting range and captivated audiences with its compelling storyline. Her portrayal of shirah, a resourceful and brave woman, earned her praise and added another noteworthy role to her resume.
in 2020, cote de pablo again delighted fans by reprising her beloved character, ziva david, in the hit series “ncis.” Her return was met with excitement and enthusiasm from fans worldwide, reaffirming her character’s impact and enduring popularity. Cote de pablo’s portrayal of ziva david remains one of her most iconic and celebrated roles.
cote de pablo – personal life
cote de pablo had a significant relationship with actor diego serrano, with whom she was involved for a long time. However, reports surfaced in june 2015 indicating that they had separated. Despite this notable aspect of her private life, cote remains deeply private and keeps personal details away from the public eye.
cote de pablo – social media
cote de pablo maintains a deliberate absence from social media platforms. In a build series interview, she expressed her fascination with social media, describing it as a means of communicating with the world.
however, cote de pablo prioritizes her privacy and avidly maintains her personal life separate from the public sphere, explaining her decision not to engage with social media and share personal details with the world.
frequently asked questions (faqs) – cote de pablo net worth
why did cote de pablo leave ncis?
in an article by hello magazine, cote de pablo addressed her decision not to return to ncis, citing political factors and subpar scripts as the primary reasons. She expressed her deep affection for the character of ziva, which she had dedicated eight years to crafting. However, she felt that the character was not being given the respect she deserved, leading her to step away from the role.
how did cote de pablo become famous?
cote de pablo gained widespread recognition for her remarkable portrayal of ziva david, a complex character who underwent a captivating transformation from an israeli mossad officer to an ncis agent in the highly popular police procedural drama series “ncis.”
what was cote de pablo’s salary on ncis?
according to an article by soaps, reports say that cote de pablo was among the highest-paid actors on ncis during her time on the show, despite her sudden departure in 2013. It was stated that she commanded a substantial salary of $120,000 per episode of ncis.
conclusion – cote de pablo net worth
cote de pablo’s journey from humble beginnings to meteoric stardom inspires actors and fans alike. With her talent, versatility, and undeniable charisma, she has carved a unique place in the entertainment industry, leaving an indelible mark on the hearts of millions.
here are other inspiring stories of successful careers: |
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| Wasnetsky takes the stand on his own behalf in homicide trial |
| Posted on Thursday, August 13 @ 00:02:55 PDT (2 reads) | |
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Scranton times tribune wasnetsky takes the stand on his own behalf in homicide trial geraldine gibbons, the times-tribune, scranton, pa. Thu, august 13, 2026 at 12:01 am utc 3 min read add yahoo as a preferred source to see more of our stories on google.
a former lowes employee on trial for killing his co-worker in june 2025 took the stand on wednesday to explain his actions.
chris wasnetsky, 37, maneuvered his wheelchair to the witness stand and spoke with a halting voice as he began his testimony.
he told jurors he knew what he did was wrong, especially because he wasnt aware that his victim, jeffrey moeller, was a father, a husband and a veteran.
advertisement advertisement if he had it to do over again, he wouldnt have shot moeller, he said, acknowledging he caused a lot of people a lot of pain by taking things into his own hands on june 14, 2025.
wasnetsky is charged with first- and third-degree murder.
detailing early success, health
prompted by his defense attorney, joseph mcgraw, wasnetsky detailed his life as a high school athlete at bishop ohara in dunmore, excelling in cross country and track and field. When he got to the university of scranton, he continued running competitively, making it to national competitions several times.
he graduated from the university of scranton with a degree in mathematics, he testified.
advertisement advertisement even after being afflicted with ataxia, wasnetsky told the jury, he always strived to do things properly. He worked hard for lowes and believed there were mechanisms in place to address any concerns he had.
so, in may 2024, when he reached out to management alleging co-worker moeller was mocking his disability and making his job harder, he expected a solution. He even expected moeller to be penalized in some way by a company that purported to provide a safe work environment.
after sending an email at that time, the situation improved for about three months before moellers behavior started to worsen again, wasnetsky testified.
then wasnetsky started reaching out again for help, first to an immediate supervisor, then to other management, then to the human resources department. Several times he referenced emails where a member of the company recommended he talk to an immediate supervisor.
advertisement advertisement and so he did. He told supervisors that moeller was putting carts in his way in order to slow down his work. He even provided a photo of items in the aisle he alleged moeller left.
after a year, wasnetsky told jurors, he felt he had run out of options to solving his problem with moeller. He went out and bought a gun, practiced using it and then shot moeller as he worked — four times.
when wasnetsky called 911 to report he had shot his co-worker, he testified he was planning to shoot himself also.
mcgraw then asked him why he hadnt; he said the main reason was that he didnt think one bullet would be enough.
advertisement advertisement when asked why he hadnt simply gotten another job, wasnetsky said it was because his condition dictated he could work only at night and he didnt think he could find one.
cross-examination
during cross-examination, chief deputy district attorney sara varela pointed out that wasnetsky had been diagnosed with ataxia only after the shooting. At the time of the shooting, he wasnt being treated by a doctor, he admitted.
he testified during cross that he hadnt been to an eye doctor for an extended period before the shooting.
wasnetsky also admitted on cross that he hadnt requested americans with disabilities act accommodations from lowes.
advertisement advertisement varela again asked why wasnetsky didnt just get another job.
this time, in addition to mentioning the difficulty he would have getting another night job, he also testified that he felt being forced out of his position would have been unfair to him.
i spent 11 years building up my salary, he said, adding that he would have almost certainly needed to take a pay cut if he switched jobs.
the trial continues friday.
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| Sir Purr partners with Mt. Olive Pickle Co. | News | reflector.com |
| Posted on Thursday, August 13 @ 00:02:55 PDT (3 reads) | |
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Mount olive — sir purr stepped off his cat cruiser, stretched and strutted to the mount olive pickle parlor on a sultry tuesday afternoon.
he peered inside, pawed at the doors and then rubbed his hungry belly in anticipation of relishing one of the state’s favorite gameday snack traditions.
the antics drew laughter from the folks inside, but the beloved carolina panthers mascot had more on his mind than crunching on a gherkin or slurping some pickle juice.
officials announced mt. Olive pickle co. Has expanded its partnership to become the first-ever presenting partner for sir purr and the black & blue crew. Sir purr will wear a black mt. Olive patch on his costume throughout the season.
“it’s a real big ‘dill’ for us, you could say,” said bobby frye, president and ceo of mt. Olive pickle co. “We’ve been affiliated with the panthers for some time now and we’re certainly proud to be with a strong organization that believes in giving back to the community.
“when you deal with these people on an ongoing basis like we do, you know you’re dealing with a first-class operation from top to bottom every single day.”
mt. Olive pickles will continue working with levy/compass and the bank of america stadium culinary team to provide pickles, peppers and relishes throughout suites, concessions and hospitality areas.
panthers fans can purchase mt. Olive products at in-stadium gameday grab and go concessions.
“having a brand like mt. Olive is really important to us, not only as a club, but as a community,” said jonathan norman, director of partnerships from tepper sports & entertainment. “Panthers and pickles go together like football and america. We’re so very thankful for mount olive.”
sir purr and norman presented frye a replica jersey with the number 26 to hang in the parlor.
the frisky feline posed for photos, signed autographs and etched his name on the “possible future employee list.” He served platters of small cups filled with dill-ectable pickles, scanned a t-shirt at the register and did a little organizing behind the bar.
the partnership further accentuates a historic year in pickletown usa. The pickle company is celebrating its 100th year, southern bank is 150 years old, the university of mount olive is 75 years old and the town recently held its 40th annual nc pickle festival.
“pretty cool on our centennial anniversary,” frye said. “Our pickle parlor has become a focal point for the town, a place where we connect with our consumers. It ties everything together.” |
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| Sex-dependent prediction of autism |
| Posted on Thursday, August 13 @ 00:02:55 PDT (3 reads) | |
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Abstract
introduction:
autism spectrum disorders (asd) have a global prevalence of 1%, with a male-to- female diagnosis ratio of roughly 4:1. Several models have been developed to predict asd using genetic information. However, the influence of biological sex on prediction outcomes remains underexplored.
methods:
we present an ensemble model to predict asd, which integrates polygenic risk scores (prss), common genetic variants, and asd risk genes with the mssng whole genome sequencing (wgs) dataset.
results:
following training, our model achieved an accuracy of 0.68, an area under the receiver operating curve (auroc) of 0.72, and a recall of 0.77 on the test dataset. Notably, common variants contributed more significantly to asd prediction in males than females (p < 0.001), with accuracies of 0.69 and 0.66, respectively. The 16p11 locus emerged as particularly predictive for females (p < 0.001). Gene enrichment analysis using the allen brain atlas revealed that expression of asd risk genes that were significant in females were enriched (fwer < 0.05) in the primary somatosensory cortex, inferior parietal cortex, and parietal neocortex during fetal development. By contrast, male asd risk gene expression was enriched (fwer < 0.05) in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and anterior cingulate cortex across developmental stages (fetal to adult).
discussion:
these findings underscore a sex-dependent role for common genetic variants in the risk of developing asd. In doing so, they highlight the utility of ensemble models that incorporate common variation and biological sex for asd prediction.
introduction
autism spectrum disorders (asd) are heterogeneous and characterised by challenges with social skills, repetitive behaviours, and communication deficits. Asd is highly heritable, with a twin-based genetic heritability of 64%–91% (). Like other neuropsychiatric and neurodevelopmental traits, common variants have a low individual impact but collectively contribute additively to the heritability of asd (). In contrast, rare variants have a high individual impact but a low overall effect on liability ().
asd has a global prevalence of 1%. However, the prevalence varies across regions and demographics (zeidan et al., 2022). Notably, there are roughly four times as many diagnosed males as females (; zeidan et al., 2022). Different hypotheses have been proposed to explain the ‘female protective effect’. These hypotheses include the liability threshold model, which suggests that females have a higher threshold for diagnosis (). The liability threshold is thought to be influenced by both genetic (e.G., Sex chromosome and methylation differences) and non-genetic (e.G., Diagnostic bias and hormones) factors (). Failure to account for the female protective effect during model development and deployment may introduce significant bias into research outcomes (). However, including biological sex as a variable in attempts to predict asd offers the potential to elucidate the genetic contributions of the putative protective effect.
the use of genetic models to predict asd and other neuropsychiatric conditions has had mixed success (; ). Early methods used polygenic risk scores (prs) as a logistic regression for prediction (; ). However, the last decade has witnessed a substantial increase in the application of artificial intelligence (ai) and machine learning techniques (; ). Incorporating whole genome sequencing into prediction models has also improved results, in part through the inclusion of non-coding regions, which are recognised as having a role in determining traits (; ). Finally, machine learning approaches have been applied to the genetics of neurodevelopmental conditions for diagnosis, condition subtyping, variant identification, and biomarker prioritisation ().
the accuracy of predicting the probability of being autistic from genetic sequencing datasets has ranged from 0.52 to 0.81 (). However, the majority of the models that have been used for predictions are limited due to either: 1) a lack of separate validation data (), 2) using a small, homogeneous population (wang et al., 2018), or 3) lack of breakdown of predictability between sex and limited reporting of results (e.G., Accuracy only) ().
in this study, we developed a robust ensemble model to predict the probability of being autistic using common genetic variation, leveraging the autism speaks’ mssng whole-genome sequencing dataset comprising 11,000 individuals (). Our approach identified key genetic variants and genes contributing to asd probability and their sex-dependent effects.
materials and methods
data preparation
controlled access to the mssng database was applied for and approved by the mssng database’s data access committee (daco-2020–04). Mssng consists of whole-genome sequences from 5,102 autistic individuals (4,074 males, 1,028 females), 6,079 unaffected individuals (3,033 males, 3,046 females), and 131 asd-related individuals (those with an asd-related diagnosis; 61 males, 70 females) (). Of these, 1,732 individuals’ samples were sequenced on complete genomics (cg), and 9,580 were sequenced on illumina hiseqx platforms. Database demographics in supplementary table s1 and in . The 131 asd-related individuals were removed from the dataset before quality control.
quality control was performed separately on the cg and illumina datasets using plink (version 1.9) (). Snps with a missing rate above 5% or a hardy-weinberg equilibrium (hwe) p-value below 10–6 were removed. Additionally, we filtered out: (1) individuals with a missing rate above 5%, (2) outlying homozygosity (more than three sd from the mean level of homozygosity), (3) ancestry outliers (more than three sd away from principal components 1 and 2’s cluster mean), and (4) similar samples (an identity by descent [ibd] above 0.5). Y-chromosome variants were also removed. After quality control, 1,533 individuals and 10,615,362 variants remained from the cg dataset, and 8,124 individuals and 10,116,316 variants remained from the illumina dataset. Full quality control methods available at https://github.Com/catriona-miller/autism_ml.
feature selection
the cg dataset was used for model training and testing. A 56:24:20 split (training: test 1: test 2) was applied to the cg dataset. The 56% training dataset was used to train 1) a model using a large number of snps (790) identified as statistically significantly associated with asd in the training dataset, 2) a model using asd-associated genes, and 3) a model using a small number of snps previously shown to be associated with asd (40) (figure 1). The larger illumina dataset was reserved as an external validation set. While training on the smaller subset is a more conservative approach that potentially limits maximum model performance, it increases confidence that any signal detected is robust enough to generalise to a much larger cohort.
figure 1
model 1 – fisher snps
the input for this process was the 10,615,362 variants remaining from the cg dataset following quality control. To perform feature selection, the 56% training dataset first underwent ld pruning (50 variant count [vc] window size, 5 vc step size, 2 variance inflation factor [vif] threshold; using plink’s indep function ()). This sliding variant count window was employed primarily as a dimensionality reduction technique to remove highly correlated features and improve the model’s performance.
following ld pruning, a fisher exact test was performed on the remaining, relatively independent set of snps to identify those associated with asd. We selected a p-value threshold of < 5 × 10?5 (supplementary table s2). As the primary objective of this step was feature selection, the conventional gwas threshold of 5 × 10?8 was deemed overly stringent. A threshold of 5 × 10?5 was chosen to balance retaining enough informative features (790 snps; fishersnps on https://github.Com/catriona-miller/autism_ml) without including too many. The feature selection pipeline is outlined in supplementary figure s1. A feature table with these snps (0,1,2; aa, aa, aa, respectively) was fed into a random forest model (pycaret version 3.3.2). Ten-fold cross-validation was performed for hyperparameter optimisation in pycaret (version 3.3.2) () using the 56% training dataset. The model was then tested on the 24% test 1 dataset.
model 2 – sfari genes
a list of 1,037 genes associated with asd was downloaded (2024/03/28) from the sfari database () (supplementary table s3). The number of variants per gene was calculated for each individual and formed the feature table. Ten-fold cross-validation was performed for hyperparameter optimisation in pycaret (version 3.3.2) on the 56% training dataset. The model was then tested on the 24% test 1 dataset.
model 3 – gwas snps
a list of 40 snps associated with asd () was used to create a feature table (0,1,2; aa, aa, aa, respectively) and fed into a random forest model (supplementary table s4). Ten-fold cross-validation was performed for hyperparameter optimisation in pycaret (version 3.3.2) on the 56% training dataset. The model was then tested on the 24% test 1 dataset.
ensemble model development
the prediction scores from the three models alongside biological sex were used to form a feature table (https://github.Com/catriona-miller/autism_ml). A random forest model was trained on the 24% test 1 data (ten-fold cross-validation) and then tested on the 20% test 2 data. This model was then validated using the illumina data.
feature contribution analysis
shapley additive explanations (shap) values were used to analyse how each model and the features within these models contributed to the overall prediction (). Shap is a game-theoretic approach that calculates the contribution of each feature to the overall model prediction (; ). The python shap package (version 0.46) was used to calculate shap values for each model and the overall ensemble model ().
developmental enrichment analysis of sfari genes
a mann-whitney u test was performed to compare the number of mutations in the set of genes previously associated with asd (all sfari genes) between autistic and neurotypical individuals for females and males separately. Multiple tests were corrected for using the false discovery rate (benjamini hochberg test). All genes that had a statistically significant difference (p-value < 0.05) in variants across their gene length between autistic and neurotypical individuals were referred to as male and/or female sfari genes.
rna-seq data from 42 individuals’ brains at five developmental stages (prenatal, infant, child, adolescent, adult) were obtained from the allen brain atlas (aba) and analysed to identify the brain regions and developmental time points in which the male and female sfari gene sets’ expression was enriched (). Briefly, abaenrichment (version 1.2.2) was employed to perform a developmental enrichment analysis (). Genes were annotated to a brain region if the expression was above the 0.8 cutoff (). A hypergeometric test was used to identify brain regions and developmental time points where the annotated gene list was enriched in the male or female sfari gene list, compared to background control genes. A family-wise error rate (fwer) was calculated by comparing the enrichment against 1,000 random sets of equal size (). Brain regions with an fwer < 0.05 were deemed to be significantly enriched. Brain regions that were enriched across development were identified using aba’s developmental effect score dataset, which contains gene age effect scores based on developmental gene expression changes ().
clustering analysis of gwas snps
shap values were generated to use as features for clustering by rerunning the gwas random forest model on the full cg dataset. A test dataset was not required as the goal was to analyse the clusters produced, not to use them for prediction. A uniform manifold approximation and projection (umap) was performed to reduce the shap value data to two dimensions. After visualisation, k-means clustering was used to produce six clusters. To analyse the asd prs for each cluster, gwas snp odd ratios (ors) were downloaded (https://www.Ebi.Ac.Uk/gwas/efotraits/efo_0003756 accessed 2024/09/26). Prs was calculated using plink’s ‘score’ function (). A pairwise tukey test was used to compare the mean prs z-scores between clusters ().
data availability
supplementary table s5 lists the datasets and software that were used in our analyses.
all scripts are available on github (https://github.Com/catriona-miller/autism_ml).
results
an ensemble model that incorporates biological sex has the greatest accuracy when predicting asd
random forest models were trained on three independent feature sets (sfari genes, gwas, and fisher snps), with the fisher snps model reaching the highest recall (0.86) and the gwas model reaching the highest accuracy (0.64) when applied to the cg test dataset (table 1). By creating an ensemble model that combined these three models alongside sex, an accuracy of 0.68 and an auc of 0.72 were achieved on the test dataset (table 1; figure 2a). Recall (the percentage of autistic individuals correctly predicted to be autistic) was higher than precision (the percentage of individuals predicted to be autistic who are autistic) at 0.77 and 0.61, respectively (supplementary figure s2). When analysing predictions by sex, the model achieved accuracies of 0.69 (m) and 0.66 (f) (figures 2b,c). When applied to the illumina validation dataset, overall accuracy and auc saw a moderate reduction compared to the internal test set (accuracy: 0.63 vs. 0.68; auc: 0.66 vs. 0.72), while recall remained high (0.79). Because the validation can only use features shared by both platforms, we re-evaluated the finalised ensemble on the cg test set using the reduced feature set (86% of fisher snps; prs and gene models remained the same). On this matched feature set, cg performance (accuracy 0.65, auc 0.71, recall 0.77) was close to that on illumina (table 1), indicating that the reduction relative to the full-feature model is driven largely by the smaller shared feature set rather than by platform differences.
table 1
| test dataset | accuracy | auca | recallb | precisionc | f1d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| sfari genes | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.37 | 0.51 | 0.42 |
| prs | 0.64 | 0.66 | 0.8 | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| fisher snps | 0.63 | 0.66 | 0.86 | 0.56 | 0.68 |
| ensemble | 0.68 | 0.72 | 0.77 | 0.61 | 0.69 |
| ensemble (cg test, shared snps) | 0.65 | 0.71 | 0.77 | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| ensemble (illumina validation) | 0.63 | 0.66 | 0.79 | 0.56 | 0.66 |
the ensemble model incorporating biological sex outperforms sub-models for predicting autism probability.
metrics are presented for the models’ predictability on the 20% test set of the complete genomics data. The second-to-last row shows the metrics when the cg test set was re-evaluated using only the snps present in the illumina dataset. The final row shows the ensemble model applied to the illumina validation dataset. A, auc (area under the curve) represents the probability that a randomly chosen positive (autistic) instance ranks higher than a randomly chosen negative (neurotypical) instance; b, recall is the percentage of autistic individuals correctly predicted to be autistic; c, precision is the percentage of individuals predicted to be autistic who are autistic and d, f1 is the harmonic mean of recall (b) and precision (c). For each metric, the score of the model that performed the best is bold.
figure 2
common variants make a large, sex-dependent contribution to the model
the prediction scores from the three models are values between 0–1, quantifying the confidence the model has in the individual being neurotypical (0: ‘certain’ to 0.5 uncertain) or autistic (0.5 uncertain to 1 ‘certain’). The three prediction scores from the a) sfari genes, b) gwas, and c) fisher snps models) were incorporated into the ensemble model alongside sex and, from here on, will be referred to as features.
shap scores were used to predict the contribution of the four features to the overall ensemble model. The fisher snps model had the highest impact on the ensemble model predictions, followed by the gwas model, then sex (figure 3a). This is expected given that the fisher snps model had the highest metric scores of the three individual models (table 1). We tested for a sex-dependent correlation between fisher snp prediction scores and impact on the final prediction (shap value) (figure 3b). We identified a clear relationship between sex and fisher snp prediction value in the model, with only males predicted to be autistic from the fisher snp model. For a male and a female with the same neurotypical fisher snp predictive value, the ensemble model places a higher weight on common variants for neurotypical males than females (figure 3b).
figure 3
the fisher snps model was retrained after balancing the number of males and females within the training dataset. Autistic males within the training dataset were randomly subsampled to match the number of autistic females. The balanced model had slightly lower scores across all metrics than the original model, with an auc of 0.70 (supplementary table s6). This is likely due to the reduced population size. The fisher snps model prediction values remained the primary driver of classification. However, sex was the second most influential variable in the model’s decision-making process (figure 3c). This high shap value suggests that the model relies heavily on sex to contextualise the genetic variant inputs, effectively treating male and female predictions as distinct risk distributions. In addition, plotting the individual fisher snp prediction values against their model impacts (i.E., Shap values) and colouring by sex, highlights sex-dependent impacts of common variants on prediction (figure 3d). The balanced model retains greater confidence in male predictions than female predictions from common variants (mann-whitney u p-value < 0.001). Female shap scores tended toward zero while male shap scores tended toward larger values in both directions (negative: neurotypical, positive: autistic). These results demonstrate the model’s high confidence in predicting asd probability for males compared to females based on common genetic variants. Thus, despite the balanced sex distribution in our dataset, the model relied more heavily on male-specific genetic risk factors to make its predictions. This suggests that the available common variant signals in this dataset may be more predictive for males than females.
top contributing common variants included sex-specific and shared variants
variant contributions to the balanced fisher model were ranked according to their mean absolute shap score for females and males separately, and the top 10% of variants for each sex were selected (figure 4a). Most variants (67/89, 75%) in the top 10% were shared between males and females.
figure 4
the top 10 fisher variants (figure 4b) and genes (figure 4c) which contributed to the prediction had similar mean absolute shap values in males and females. However, shap values for rs58741612 were significantly different between sexes (t-test p-value < 0.001). Rs58741612 (maf 0.20 in males and females; european: 0.19, african: 0.28, asian: 0.125) ()) has not previously been associated with neurodevelopment. By contrast, the top-ranked variant, chr11:10,509,093, falls within mtrnr2l8 which has been shown to be fivefold upregulated in saudi autistic individuals (). The second-ranked variant (i.E., Rs1443089352) is located within an intron of p4ha3, which was shown to be differentially expressed within mildly autistic individuals ().
notably, there were male- (11/89, 12%) and female-specific (11/89, 12%) loci (figure 4a). More sex-specific variants were observed in the original (imbalanced) model, likely reflecting a bias towards sex in the original fisher model (supplementary figure s3). 16p11.2 was identified as a female specific locus for asd risk in both the original and balanced models (t-test p-value < 0.001).
male- and female-specific sfari genes were significantly expressed during different brain developmental windows
we performed sex-stratified analyses comparing mutation rates in sfari genes between autistic and neurotypical individuals across males and females separately. This revealed statistically significant differences in mutation rates in 35 genes specific to females, 455 genes specific to males, and 124 genes shared between both sexes (supplementary figure s4a; supplementary table s7; supplementary table s8). For instance, shank3, one of the most extensively studied sfari genes (), was identified as having significantly different mutation rates in the male cohort. The presence of such well-characterised genes in the sex-specific lists highlights the value of stratifying by biological sex. These genes are mapped across different regions of the genome. Unsurprisingly, a large percentage of the female (9/31; 29%) and shared (10/48; 21%) gene sets were located on the x chromosome (supplementary figure s4b-d).
notably, both male- (male + shared; 579) and female-specific (female + shared; 159) sets demonstrated significantly lower (p < 0.001) loss-of-function observed/expected upper bound fraction (loeuf) scores compared to control sfari genes without differential mutation rates (supplementary figure s4e-f). These findings indicate that these sex-specific genetic contributors are under stronger selective constraint, as reflected by their depletion of loss-of-function variation, underscoring their importance in neurodevelopment.
the allen brain atlas () was used to identify the enrichment of sex-specific gene sets within the brain across developmental timepoints. Expression of genes within the female-specific set was enriched in the primary somatosensory cortex, inferior parietal cortex, and the parietal neocortex during the fetal timepoint (fwer = 0.013, 0.014, 0.010 respectively) (supplementary figure s4g). By contrast, expression of genes within the male gene set was enriched (fwer < 0.05) in multiple brain regions at most developmental time points (fetal, infant, child, and adult).
significant developmental changes in gene expression (i.E., Across all developmental windows) were observed for the expression of the male gene set within the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and the anterior cingulate cortex (fwer = 0.048 and 0.006, respectively). By contrast, there were no significant developmental changes in expression in the female gene set (supplementary figure s4g).
asd prs scores can be used to cluster individuals
we tested to see if it was possible to cluster autistic and neurotypical individuals according to their genotypes, from a small number of snps. A random forest model was trained on all individuals using only the gwas snps to predict asd. As the purpose was clustering and no longer prediction, a separate test dataset was not required. Shap values were used for clustering and a uniform manifold approximation and projection (umap) was performed to project the shap values into two dimensions (figure 5a). K-means clustering (k = 6) identified three autistic clusters (clusters 0, 3, and 5) and three neurotypical clusters (clusters 1, 2, and 4). The majority of the autistic individuals (482/613, 79%) were present in cluster zero. There was no statistically significant difference in the female-to-male ratio between the clusters, indicating that biological sex was not a discriminating factor in the clustering model (figure 5b). Predicted ancestry was also broadly consistent across the six clusters (85.6%–100% european; cohort-wide 89.5%; supplementary table s9). While the association between ancestry and cluster assignment was statistically significant, its magnitude was negligible (cramer’s v = 0.096), likely due to the small sample size of non-europeans.
figure 5
comparing the prs values for all individuals, there was no statistically significant difference in the distribution between the autistic and neurotypical groups (figure 5c). This is likely because the neurotypical group is comprised of family members of the autistic individuals who share common risk. However, comparisons of the prs scores by clusters identified significant differences (pairwise tukey p < 0.001) between clusters (figure 5d). Notably, cluster 3 (autistic) had the highest average prs.
to understand the genetic features responsible for separating the clusters, we compared the presence of each snp between each autistic cluster and all neurotypical individuals. As was observed for overall prs scores, no snps showed a statistically significant difference in presence between all autistic and neurotypical individuals. By contrast, within cluster 0, snps rs112635299 and rs11787216 had a statistically significant difference in distribution compared to all neurotypical individuals (chi-squared, adjusted p-values < 0.001). Snp rs112635299 was enriched with autistic individuals in cluster 3. Snp rs11787216 was enriched (chi-squared, adjusted p-values < 0.001) with autistic individuals in cluster 5. These findings suggest that while no individual snps distinguish autistic individuals from neurotypical individuals in this predominantly european cohort, specific genetic variations may be relevant within certain autistic subgroups, highlighting the genetic heterogeneity within the autistic population.
discussion
our ensemble machine learning approach predicted asd with an accuracy of 0.68 and an auc of 0.72. The ensemble model was composed of three random forest models trained on: 1) statistically significant snps associated with asd in the training dataset (fisher snps), 2) asd gwas snps (), and 3) asd risk genes (sfari genes listed in supplementary table s3), as well as biological sex. By analysing the decisions the ensemble model made, we identified genes and variants that are influential for asd prediction. These variants included rs58741612, rs1443089352, mtrnr2l8, and the 16p11 locus. Collectively, these common variants contributed to prediction with greater confidence in males compared to females (accuracy = 0.69 and 0.66, respectively). Expression of sex-specific sfari gene sets in the cohort was enriched at different developmental timepoints and in different brain regions in both males and females. These insights pave the way for more targeted and sex-informed approaches to understanding asd genetics.
the strengths of this study lie in leveraging the comprehensive mssng whole-genome sequencing database (). However, several limitations need to be considered when interpreting our findings. Firstly, the mssng dataset is largely european (75%) which may limit model generalisability to other ancestry groups. Because the polygenic risk scores were derived from predominantly european gwas summary statistics, they may transfer imperfectly to individuals of other ancestries, and prs comparisons should be interpreted in light of the cohort’s predominantly european composition. Second, while we retained the individuals who were sequenced using the illumina platform as an independent validation dataset, a completely separately curated wgs cohort is required to test the model’s applicability to other cohorts fully. Third, our model’s exclusive focus on common genetic variation overlooks the contribution of pathogenic structural variants (svs), which have been detected in 6% of autistic individuals within the mssng database (). Finally, shap values can only explain why the model predicted individuals as autistic or neurotypical, not the ‘true’ biological causality. Given the heterogeneous nature of asd and the complex genetic architecture involved, these predictive values should be interpreted as a proof-of-concept for the utility of ensemble methods. Phenotype data in the mssng database is currently sparse, meaning co-occurring conditions (such as adhd) could not be considered during the predictive work or the clustering analysis. The primary value of this model lies in its ability to prioritise sex-dependent candidate variants for future mechanistic study, rather than as a standalone diagnostic tool.
our ensemble model is more confident in predictions for males than for females, even after adjusting to reduce male bias. Our models identified common and x-chromosome-based variation as being important for sex-specific prediction (figure 4a). Notably, a locus on the x chromosome has previously been associated with asd and decreased levels of maternal serum sex-hormone-binding globulin in males, not females (). Our findings, which suggest that common variants contribute more to male asd, expand on these earlier observations. It remains possible that the increased confidence in male predictions could be explained by dataset bias, specifically that females are less likely to be diagnosed (). However, the use of a balanced dataset (male:female) in our ensemble model argues against this. Therefore, we contend that our results support the hypothesis that there is a biological role for sex hormones in asd (). These hypotheses should be tested further using larger, sex-balanced asd datasets.
social behaviour difficulties involving the prefrontal cortex manifest differently in males versus females (; ). Autistic females tend to have more subtle and less obvious difficulties in social communication than males and are better at adapting behaviours to conform to societal norms (). These behavioural differences parallel sexually dimorphic patterns of brain development that are thought to contribute to the differential prevalence of neurodevelopmental conditions between males and females (). Consistent with sex-divergent developmental timing, the female-specific sfari gene set in our cohort was enriched in the primary somatosensory and parietal cortices exclusively during fetal development, with no significant developmental changes across the lifespan. By contrast, expression of the male-specific sfari genes changed significantly across development (8 post-conception weeks to 40 years) in the dorsolateral and medial prefrontal cortices (dpfc, mpfc), regions whose maturation is sex-dependent and influenced by pubertal and hormonal processes (). This regional enrichment aligns with a recent multivariate gwas analysis that similarly implicates cortical tissues in the shared genetic architecture of asd and co-occurring conditions (). The dpfc and mpfc regions have been associated with asd in males. The mpfc is important for social behaviour, and circuitry changes in this region have been identified in both asd clinical studies and rodent models of majority male (; ), or entirely male cohorts (; ).
notably, we identified shank3 as associated with asd in males but not females. Haploinsufficiency of shank3 in phelan-mcdermid syndrome confers very high rates of asd (over 70%; ; ). While detailed sex-stratified phenotyping of shank3-affected individuals remains limited, our male-biased association is consistent with mouse models showing that shank3 mutations affect mpfc connectivity and social deficits in male but not female mice (). Together, these sex-dependent expression windows suggest that the genetic contributors we identified act during different neurodevelopmental periods in each sex. Female-specific genes corresponded to an early sensory and parietal window, whereas male-specific genes followed a prolonged prefrontal trajectory. This timing difference may help explain why common-variant signals were more informative for males in our model, consistent with established brain-based sex differences in asd from mri-based human studies and animal models (; walsh et al., 2021). A key direction for future work will be to determine how the predictive variants identified here contribute to sex-differential neurodevelopment.
many studies analyse the genetic risk for asd using autistic individuals and their family members (; ; ). Yet changes in polygenic risk scores between autistic individuals and their neurotypical family members are, by definition, minimal. However, clustering weighted (0, 1, 2; aa, aa, aa, respectively) gwas snps overcomes this limitation. By clustering weighted prs scores, we identified snps rs112635299 (associated with coronary artery disease and bronchodilation ()) and rs11787216 (associated with educational attainment ()) as being responsible for the greatest discriminatory difference between the autistic and neurotypical clusters. Therefore, we hypothesise that the individuals within these clusters are more likely to have heart and education-related co-occurring traits, respectively. Notably, epidemiological studies suggest that individuals with congenital heart disease (chd) have double the odds of developing asd (1.99; 95% ci 1.77–2.24) than those without chd (). More broadly, because snp-asd associations vary across ancestries (; ), these cluster-discriminating variants reflect our predominantly european cohort and may differ in other ancestry groups.
we identified the 16p11.2 locus as important for asd/neurotypical prediction within the mssng dataset, particularly for females (p-value < 0.001). The ?600 kb deletion and reciprocal duplication at 16p11.2 are among the best-established cnv risk factors for asd in human cohorts, together accounting for approximately 1% of cases (weiss et al., 2008). Importantly, sex-dependent differences in diagnosis and transmission have been identified, with males with 16p11.2 deletions more likely than females to be diagnosed with asd () and nearly 90% of de novo duplications and deletions arising on maternal haplotypes (). Current behavioural and mechanistic evidence of sex-specific differences predominantly comes from mouse models. Specifically, male mouse models with 16p11.2 deletions are more likely to experience hyperactivity, sleep disturbances, and reduced brain sizes compared to females with the same mutation (; ). By contrast, female mouse models exhibit increased stress-induced anxiety and excitability in their cortical neurons (; ). However, it remains unclear what causes the sex-specific difference. Future studies on the role of the 16p11.2 locus in asd should focus on identifying the sex-specific molecular impacts. This would provide insights that may be able to be applied to better understand the development of asd in males versus females, potentially with significant impacts on diagnosis.
in conclusion, this study demonstrated the utility of an ensemble machine learning model trained on common genetic variants for asd prediction. The identification of distinct male and female genetic signatures, with divergent spatiotemporal expression patterns and developmental trajectories, provides compelling evidence for sex-specific etiological pathways on asd risk. Future work should explore the mechanisms underlying the sex-specific effects of the 16p11 locus.
statements
data availability statement
table s5 lists the datasets and software that were used in our analyses. All scripts are available on github (https://github.Com/catriona-miller/autism_ml).
ethics statement
the studies involving humans were approved by uahpec - the university of auckland human participants ethics committee application. The studies were conducted in accordance with the local legislation and institutional requirements. The human samples used in this study were acquired from the autism speak’s mssng database (whole genome sequencing data was provided to us). Written informed consent for participation was not required from the participants or the participants’ legal guardians/next of kin in accordance with the national legislation and institutional requirements.
author contributions
cm: visualization, formal analysis, writing – original draft, methodology, conceptualization. Tp: writing – review and editing, supervision. Dn: supervision, writing – review and editing. Jo: project administration, methodology, supervision, writing – review and editing, conceptualization, funding acquisition.
funding
the author(s) declared that financial support was received for this work and/or its publication. Cm was funded by the university of auckland doctoral scholarship. Jo and cm were funded by how tiny dna changes shape the developing brain la caxia foundation grant hr25-00177.
acknowledgments
we would like to thank the genomics and systems biology group (liggins institute, university of auckland) for their insightful suggestions and discussions. Data used in this work comes from the autism speaks’ mssng dataset.
conflict of interest
the author(s) declared that this work was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.
generative ai statement
the author(s) declared that generative ai was not used in the creation of this manuscript.
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supplementary material
the supplementary material for this article can be found online at: https://www.Frontiersin.Org/articles/10.3389/fgene.2026.1799530/full#supplementary-material
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summary
keywords
autism, common variants, machine learning, sex-dependence, whole genome sequencing
citation
miller cj, portlock t, nyaga dm and o’sullivan jm (2026) sex-dependent prediction of autism. Front. Genet. 17:1799530. Doi: 10.3389/fgene.2026.1799530
received
29 january 2026
revised
17 june 2026
accepted
23 july 2026
published
13 august 2026
volume
17 - 2026
edited by
j. Francis borgio, imam abdulrahman bin faisal university, saudi arabia
reviewed by
jake lin, tampere university, finland
prabahan chakraborty, srm institute of science and technology (deemed to be university) research kattankulathur, india
updates
copyright
© 2026 miller, portlock, nyaga and o’sullivan.
this is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the creative commons attribution license (cc by). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
*correspondence: justin m. O’sullivan, justin.Osullivan@auckland.Ac.Nz
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all claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher. |
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| The high seas treaty (BBNJ agreement) and planetary sustainability: why we shoul |
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Abstract
the high seas treaty (bbnj agreement) provides a new legal framework to protect ocean ecosystems increasingly threatened as economic activities expand across areas beyond national jurisdiction (abnj). These global commons include the water column of the high seas and the seabed with associated mineral resources. Implementation, however, will be challenged by deference to existing entities, by the ambiguities and failures of wider ocean governance, and by impacts due to global environmental change and activities in national waters and on land. Meaningful delivery will therefore depend on overcoming broader ocean governance issues that threaten to stymie action and integrating wider sustainability considerations that impact (and are impacted by) what happens in abnj. It is proposed that we could do this by treating abnj in their entirety as a de facto multi-use marine protected area within a planetary sustainability paradigm. Global framing supports prioritizing conservation and sustainable use in abnj by contextualizing their importance and how necessary activities, including extraction, might be best managed in national waters or on land. In practice, any activities or infrastructure in abnj would need to support (or not impact) conservation and sustainable use outcomes balanced across abnj and the planet. Implementation would need institutional advocacy through the bbnj agreement conference of parties (cop) and other bodies. Adoption could be advanced legally and institutionally through both the bbnj agreement cop and as part of the upcoming post-2030 sustainable development agenda, with implementation led by the bbnj agreement cop or secretariat in coordination with other instruments, frameworks, and bodies.
1 introduction
the “high seas treaty” that came into force on 17 january 2026—the bbnj (biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction) agreement ()—is an agreement under the united nations (un) convention on the law of the sea (unclos). Economic activities, both existing sectors and new types of exploitation, are expanding in scale and space across the ocean and increasingly into the global commons of areas beyond national jurisdiction (abnj) that account for half the surface of our planet (jouffray et al., ). Importantly, abnj include both the water column of the high seas and the seabed with its mineral resources (known as “the area” under unclos). Unclos has a general obligation to safeguard the marine environment but, before the bbnj agreement, had limited provision for conservation and sustainable use of marine resources in abnj—other than seabed mineral resources through the international seabed authority (isa).
the bbnj agreement aims to address governance gaps for environmental protection of abnj reconciled with development interests (). It provides a framework for environmental impact assessment (eia), for area-based management tools (abmts) including marine protected areas (mpas), for sharing of marine genetic resources, and for capacity building and transfer of marine technology in abnj ().
effective action under the bbnj agreement, however, faces challenges for participation and compliance. The operational scope, for example, is limited by the commitment to “respect the competence of” and “not undermine” existing instruments, frameworks, and bodies (ifbs; ), such as the isa for seabed mineral resources, the international maritime organization (imo) for shipping, and regional fisheries management organizations (rfmos). This is concerning because, for example, the isa has substantially inadequate provisions for the emerging prospects of large-scale deep-sea mining () and the proportion of marine fisheries (regulated outside of unclos by rfmos; carmine et al., ) With unsustainable catch levels continues to increase (). Interpretation of obligations is complicated by states that have signed the bbnj agreement but not unclos and may resist implied obligations to unclos principles—such as the united states of america (usa).
a substantial, and perhaps greater, dimension of challenge is added by the continuing general decline in ocean health () and “indirect” impacts due to global environmental change and activities in national waters and on land. Meaningful delivery of the bbnj agreement therefore needs integrated multi-sectoral, multi-issue, and hybrid regional to global action across abnj, national waters, and terrestrial environments. This requires framing the bbnj agreement as part of global sustainable development and action addressing the broader triple planetary crisis of climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution—and pressures from land-based activities and climate change integrated into abnj governance approaches. It has been suggested that we should consider protecting the whole of the high seas (and seabed, i.E., Abnj) from all extraction because of its importance for biosphere resilience and climate stability (). The political and economic attraction of exploitation options, however, make this geopolitically unlikely. It may also be counter-productive for scientific and sustainability progress because abnj require better scientific understanding and human input to help their protection (), which is closely linked to the resources and interest that some level of economic use empowers. Instead, we might more realistically focus on how abnj could be managed in their entirety as a de facto multi-use mpa—with sustainable use in appropriate areas allowed only when it is consistent with overall long-term biological diversity conservation objectives (using the mpa definition in the bbnj agreement; ).
this perspective aims to evaluate implementation challenges for the bbnj agreement within a planetary sustainability framing and to present an argument that abnj should be managed as if they were a multi-use mpa in their entirety. The priority in all decision-making would be conservation and sustainable use because of the overwhelming importance of abnj for biosphere resilience and climate stability. The first section outlines key challenges including limitations to operational scope, the dependence on soft power influence, and the importance of the broader ocean context and global environmental change. The second section evaluates how abnj as a de facto multi-use mpa within planetary sustainable development would support meaningful delivery of the bbnj agreement, with discussion of how this might be taken forward.
2 challenges to meaningful delivery of the bbnj agreement
the bbnj agreement (formally adopted on 19 june 2023 after 2 decades of negotiation) met the ratification threshold of 60 signatories after just 27 months, much faster than the 90 months (2,688 days) that was the average for the previous 5 ocean-focused multi-lateral environmental agreements developed since 1970 (blasiak and jouffray, ). This might reflect states willingness to engage in protection of abnj. Concerningly, however, it might also reflect that politicians are reassured the bbnj agreement will have limited impact on national self-interest and ability to act. States different obligations (and interpretations of these) to the bbnj agreement, unclos, and other ifbs threaten to undermine compliance and participation. The usa, for example, is a signatory to the bbnj agreement but not unclos—and is pushing ahead with plans for unilateral seabed mining in abnj as a non-member of the isa (; ; willaert and soete, ). Even states that are signatories to unclos are increasingly trying to extend their exploitative control of abnj by claiming further areas of continental shelf or enhanced rights and have contested interpretations of unclos principles ().
the immediate issue for bbnj agreement implementation therefore seems to be how it can work synergistically with existing polycentric ocean governance (lin and tsai, ). The biggest inherent risks for effectiveness come from ambiguities in power and scope, with the explicit obligation to “respect the competence of” and “not undermine” existing ifbs (). Actual uptake of measures offered by the bbnj agreement (such as eia and mpas) is constrained by deference, for example, to rfmos for fisheries and to the isa for seabed mining.
the bbnj agreement instead aims to influence existing ifbs through “soft power” to consider abnj in their approaches—establishing a normative weight on the obligation to prevent irreversible harm to marine biodiversity and an expectation for ecosystem-based management and spatial planning (). Growing public and political awareness of the oceans importance to humanity (“ocean literacy;” ) has driven forward societal engagement with ocean sustainability, providing generalized soft power support for ocean sustainability measures. Examples include the declaration of 2021–2030 as the un decade of ocean science for sustainable development, the emergence of political platforms such as the high level panel for a sustainable ocean economy (“the ocean panel” of 19 world leaders), and concerns over marine plastic (tiller et al., ).
despite the requirement for parties to the agreement to promote bbnj objectives within other bodies (), there are concerns about whether the bbnj agreement will be able to exert much influence on, for example, rfmos when they are failing to deliver sustainable fisheries governance in even national waters (sebuliba et al., ). Ambiguity and under-articulated provisions for abmts including mpas may limit effective implementation (), as does dependence on the isa for seabed mining governance when it has limited enforcement provisions (currie and müller, ). The integration of conservation and sustainable use in ocean sustainability is underdeveloped and contested (kittinger et al., ) And tensions between the concepts remain across the bbnj agreement.
importantly, however, these issues and the practical implications of the “not undermine” clause will evolve and be shaped by a developing polycentric network of relations between the bbnj agreement (including the conference of parties (cop), secretariat, and subsidiary bodies) and existing ifbs. Arrangements to enhance cooperation with relevant ifbs and global, regional, subregional and sectoral bodies have advanced in negotiations through the preparatory commission for the bbnj agreement (bbnj prepcom; established by un general assembly resolution 78/272). The final of 3 sessions (prepcom iii) concluded in april 2026, however, with issues remaining that need resolving at cop1—particularly around institutional boundaries (). Establishing the inter-institutional alignment of the bbnj agreement cop with relevant ifbs is likely to dominate the first few cop meetings ().
crucially, there is a wider issue for bbnj agreement implementation posed by sustainability challenges both across regional seas and on a global scale. The ocean and abnj also offer a critical arena for action on the triple planetary crisis (climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution). Coordination is therefore needed with climate action and sustainable development, as well as broader ocean governance. Connecting advocacy for conservation and sustainable use in abnj to wider action addressing the climate crisis and sustainable development does, however, offer substantial opportunity to enhance the soft power needed for effective delivery of the bbnj agreement.
abnj are, for example, functionally connected with coastal and national waters by ocean currents and as part of regional marine ecosystems that overlap national and international jurisdictions. Human activities taking place on land and in national waters impact abnj and must therefore be included in abnj management considerations. Activities on land generate pollution that is delivered by rivers into coastal waters, regional seas, and then abnj (). In national waters, catching migratory fish such as tuna alters population ecology and affects associated parts of ecosystems across abnj (). Increasing fisheries biomass extraction, mainly in national waters but with impacts across abnj, is putting at risk the marine diversity that constitutes a biological carbon pump transferring organic carbon from the upper to the deep ocean (; )).
designation of mpas under the bbnj agreement is argued to be of key importance in meeting the kunming-montreal global biodiversity frameworks “30 by 30” aim to protect 30% of the ocean and land by 2030 (blasiak and jouffray, ). But mpas in abnj need to be part of coherent regional and global networks with mpas in national waters that encompass complex patterns of biodiversity, ecological interactions, ocean productivity, and human impact () to efficiently deliver biodiversity protection, boost fisheries, and secure marine carbon stocks (sala et al., ). Ocean sustainability is facing growing crises of declining ocean health () and social justice concerns () despite extensive political and scientific efforts to manage human impacts on the ocean in line with the principles of an equitable and sustainable blue economy (“socially equitable, environmentally sustainable and economically viable”; cisneros-montemayor et a1., ).
on a global scale, climate change (driven primarily by activities on land such as fossil fuel burning) has critical impacts on abnj including ocean acidification (duarte et al., ), Ocean warming (with increasing frequency of ocean heatwaves and el niño–southern oscillation events; ), ocean stratification (cheng et al., ), And changes in ocean current patterns and marine species distributions (garcía molinos et al., ). The high seas water column of abnj accounts for 90% of the volume of an ocean that has absorbed 30% of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions to date () and over 90% of the additional heat energy in our climate system (). Climatic regulation mechanisms within abnj are at risk of disruption, including global heat redistribution because of changing ocean currents (mecking and drijfhout, ) and the biological carbon pump because of ocean acidification ().
ironically, societal efforts to mitigate climate change by decarbonizing further threaten the integrity of ecosystems in abnj. Interest in seabed mining is driven by demand for rare earth elements used in clean technologies (tunnicliffe et al., ). Various potential ocean-based climate interventions including large-scale marine carbon dioxide removal () and ocean thermal energy conversion for low carbon power (), whether actioned in surface waters or on the seafloor, would have deep-ocean impacts and pose substantial risks for a rapidly changing ocean ().
3 managing abnj in their entirety as a multi-use mpa for planetary sustainability?
proposed, in a nature comment, that the high seas and their seabed should be protected from all extraction because such exploitation puts the “oceans crucial role in maintaining the stability of earths biosphere at risk.” Stopping industrial fishing in abnj, for example, might be viable because it is of limited importance for wild capture fisheries overall (4.2% of global totals; schiller et al., ) And the main targets such as migratory tuna are largely caught (and could be exclusively caught) in national waters. Restricting fishing to national jurisdiction waters would also support more sustainable fisheries because monitoring limitations in abnj and deficient legal frameworks for enforcement contribute substantially to unsustainable catches (). Seabed mining could also perhaps be avoided (or at least minimized) in abnj because there are deep sea deposits within national jurisdictions (including of the usa; ).
but achieving agreement to protect abnj from all extractive activities seems unlikely given political and economic drivers set in the context of demonstrated state self-interest and deference to existing ifbs. It may also be counter-productive because economic activities incentivize commercial interests to fund scientific research and to advance management approaches. This will help address the extensive knowledge gaps, ranging from climate science and fisheries to governance and human rights, in how we can protect abnj (). Proscribing all extractive activities would further be undesirable from a global equity viewpoint because all states have equitable rights to abnj under unclos—and these are the only rights to marine resources that land-locked countries have ().
if complete protection of abnj from extractive use is not feasible (and not desirable), could we find a more appropriate (and more realistic) middle ground between the status quo and zero-extraction? “Mpa” is defined by article 1(9) of the bbnj agreement as “a geographically defined marine area that is designated and managed to achieve specific long-term biological diversity conservation objectives and may allow, where appropriate, sustainable use provided it is consistent with the conservation objectives” (). This is in essence what the bbnj agreement means for abnj across their entirety—as stated in article 2 (“the objective… is to ensure the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction, for the present and in the long term...;” ).
recognizing the overwhelming importance of abnj for planetary biosphere resilience and climate stability, could we read article 1(9) creatively and frame management of abnj as if they were a de facto multi-use mpa in their entirety? Treating abnj as a multi-use mpa within a planetary sustainability paradigm would support prioritizing conservation and sustainable use by better enabling incorporation of how necessary activities, including extraction, can be appropriately distributed and holistically managed across abnj, national waters, and land. A multi-use mpa management philosophy for abnj differs from the zero-extraction proposal by in that extraction would be accepted if it does not diminish conservation outcomes and can even be desirable if, for example, it had associated infrastructure or research supporting conservation. Application of the “sustainable use consistent with conservation objectives” principle in decision-making devolved to existing ifbs (such as the isa) and to zones within abnj not formally designated as mpas would need to be part of the ongoing, flexible, and iterative development of the delivery mechanisms for the bbnj agreement.
decision-making for activities (including extraction) across abnj as a de facto multi-use mpa could use the existing eia provisions of part iv of the bbnj agreement. Article 28(2) states that an eia should be carried out when a planned activity in abnj “may cause substantial pollution of or significant and harmful changes to the marine environment” (). This risk effectively applies to any proposed activity in abnj if we acknowledge our extensive knowledge gaps () and the explicit adoption by the bbnj agreement in article 7(e) of the precautionary principle (“the exercise of caution in the face of uncertainty;” ). Eia treating abnj as a de facto multi-use mpa would, however, need key principles such as taking an ecocentric framing (that prioritizes conservation objectives; ) to be adopted by the scientific and technical body as it develops eia standards and guidelines as required under article 38. There would need to be extensive work on this because, although the bbnj agreement has advanced eia provisions for development decision-making (), article 28(2) devolves carrying out eia to the national process of the responsible party and national eia systems around the world have widely recognized failings (bond et al., ).
how might we take forward a planetary sustainability framing and adoption of a multi-use mpa philosophy for abnj? This needs advocacy for adoption and arrangements for implementation (designation, monitoring, and enforcement). The bbnj agreement cop is the political forum at which decisions would first need to be debated and made, with the first meeting (cop1) scheduled for january 2027, and intersessional work amongst stakeholders in advance might prepare how these proposals could be considered. The “not undermine” clause of the bbnj agreement means broad agreement would also be needed across the existing ocean governance ifbs (such as the isa, the imo, and rfmos) mainly responsible for managing activities and direct impacts across abnj. The priority in all decision-making for abnj would be conservation and sustainable use—rather than economic gain—and the planetary framing would justify only activities necessary for impacts, resources, infrastructure, or knowledge that supports outcomes assessed in balance across abnj and the planet. Determining conservation and sustainable use objectives and assessing impacts of potential activities and infrastructure would likely be led and coordinated by the bbnj agreement cop or secretariat in association with existing ifbs. Management and enforcement arrangements might be coordinated from the bbnj secretariat with some level of delegation to existing ifbs.
advocacy across ocean governance for treating abnj in their entirety as a multi-use mpa within a planetary sustainability paradigm could be led by the bbnj agreement cop and complemented by political platforms such as the high level panel for a sustainable ocean economy. We also need to champion the importance of incorporating abnj considerations in terrestrial environmental governance and global action on the triple planetary crisis as part of the upcoming post-2030 sustainable development agenda. The bbnj agreement needs to establish itself as a focal point, not just for action in abnj, but for the integration of ocean sustainability with broader sustainable development and the triple planetary crisis.
4 conclusion
meaningful delivery of the bbnj agreement is threatened by ambiguities in power and scope, by effectiveness issues within wider ocean governance, and by impacts from global environmental change and activities in national waters and on land. Conservation and sustainable use within abnj depend on planetary sustainability and, reciprocally, offer substantial opportunities to advance global sustainable development. We should therefore consider treating abnj in their entirety as a de facto multi-use mpa, within a broader sustainable development context, to better enable prioritization of conservation and sustainable use (as is the aim of the bbnj agreement). In practice, conservation and sustainable use objectives would become the focus of all decision-making for abnj. Determining objectives in balance across abnj and the planet, assessment of potential activities and infrastructure, and monitoring and enforcement could be led by the bbnj agreement cop or secretariat in coordination with existing ifbs. Adoption of a planetary sustainability framing and a multi-use mpa philosophy would need to be taken forward through the bbnj agreement cop and could be advocated for as part of the upcoming post-2030 sustainable development agenda because of the substantial role of the ocean in addressing the triple planetary crisis.
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the original contributions presented in the study are included in the article/supplementary material, further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding author.
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am: writing – original draft, writing – review & editing.
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the author(s) declared that financial support was not received for this work and/or its publication.
acknowledgments
substantial thanks to the anonymous reviewer(s) for suggesting the reframing of the first version of this manuscript to focus on the multi-use mpa idea and for rigorous, insightful, and constructive suggestions and feedback throughout the review process.
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summary
keywords
bbnj agreement, high seas treaty, ocean literacy, ocean sustainability, triple planetary crisis, un ocean decade, unclos, marine protected areas
citation
moolna a (2026) the high seas treaty (bbnj agreement) and planetary sustainability: why we should manage the entirety of abnj as a de facto multi-use marine protected area. Front. Ocean sustain. 4:1857777. Doi: 10.3389/focsu.2026.1857777
received
16 april 2026
revised
27 july 2026
accepted
28 july 2026
published
13 august 2026
volume
4 - 2026
edited by
sebastian christoph alexander ferse, ipb university, indonesia
reviewed by
mariana piauilino caldeira, university of aveiro, portugal
updates
copyright
© 2026 moolna.
this is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the creative commons attribution license (cc by). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
*correspondence: adam moolna, a.Moolna@keele.Ac.Uk
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Abstract
clarifying the spatial distribution and evolutionary characteristics of ecosystem services (ess) across multiple scales is crucial for maintaining ecological stability and sustainability. This study assessed the spatiotemporal changes of ess in the shanxi section of the yellow river basin (syrb) from 2005 to 2020 using the invest model. We analyzed the multi-ecosystem service landscape index and their driving factors, explored the trade-offs and synergy at the county and 1-km scale, and formulated differentiated ecological management strategies based on local ecological characteristics. The findings demonstrated that (1) land use change was the dominant driver influencing ess (2) carbon storage (cs) and habitat quality (hq) showed a stronger synergistic relationship at both the county and 1-km scales; and (3) ecosystem service bundles were divided into four types: cs–hq synergistic bundle, low synergistic bundle, key synergistic bundle, and integrated ecological bundle at the 1-km scale, while cs–hq synergistic bundle, key synergistic bundle, water purification–water yield–soil conservation synergistic bundle, and integrated ecological bundle revealed at the county scale. From 2005 to 2020, an increasing number of regions transitioned from single es to synergistic ess. This study reveals the spatial mechanisms of trade-offs and synergies among ess in syrb, and constructs an effective partitioning scheme and targeted ecological management strategy for syrb, which are of great significance for regional ecological conservation and sustainable development.
1 introduction
with rapid economic development and accelerated urban construction, human interference in nature has become increasingly pronounced. Humans gain ecological benefits by modifying the structure and function of ecosystems, however, this process has simultaneously triggered a range of environmental issues, such as ecological space fragmentation and ecological function reduction (). Large-scale land development, utilization, and functional conversion profoundly impact the operational mechanisms of ecosystems. In this context, amid rapid economic growth, exploring the balance between ecological environmental protection and socioeconomic development, and constructing a sustainable development model characterized by harmonious coexistence of human and nature, have become a critical contemporary challenge ().
ecosystem services (ess) refer to the various benefits that natural ecosystems provide to humans, including provisioning, regulating, supporting, and cultural services (). The scientific understanding, assessment, and management of ess are not only relevant to biodiversity conservation but also serve as the foundation for achieving regional sustainable development and ecological security (; ). The generation, delivery, and value realization of ess are distinctly scale-dependent (). The interaction between natural geographical processes and socioeconomic activities across different scales exerts a profound impact on spatial patterns and dynamic changes of ess (; ). Therefore, an in-depth understanding of the multi-scale characteristics of ess and their cross-scale associations is essential to improve the scientific and management precision. Within this context, multi-scale comprehensive evaluation frameworks and scale-based zoning management strategies have emerged as frontiers and research hotspots (; zhang et al., 2024).
given the spatial heterogeneity of ess, the concept of ecosystem service bundles (esbs) has been proven to be a powerful analytical framework for identifying spatially co-occurring sets of ess with similar characteristics, thereby facilitating the systematic characterization of multifunctional landscapes (). From a methodological perspective, recent research has progressively shifted from valuation of individual ecosystem services to the identification of integrated bundles and corresponding functional zoning. For example, spatially explicit clustering approaches was applied to characterize the internal structures and spatial disparities of esbs in fast-urbanising areas including the beijing–tianjin–hebei region (). Complementarily, integrated assessment frameworks combined with trade-off modelling facilitated ecological function zones at the county administrative scale in the nansi lake basin (). Alongside such methodological advances, research perspectives have expanded beyond static spatial mapping to incorporate dynamic supply–demand coupling analyses. A typical illustration derived from the sichuan–yunnan ecological buffer zone, where scholars tracked 15-year the spatiotemporal evolution of esbs and quantitatively disentangled their dominant socioecological driving forces (yang b. Et al., 2024). Collectively, these advances underscore that quantitatively revealing the evolution, trade-offs, and synergistic relationships of ess is significant for formulating scientific ecological protection policies and promoting the harmonious coexistence between humans and nature ().
current research on ess has formed a mature paradigm consisting of model simulation,trade-off and synergy identification, driving factor detection and esb classification, which is instrumental in characterizing the spatial patterns and internal relationships of ess (). A rich body of literature has systematically explored scale effects, scale mismatches and multiscale es variations across diverse geographies (), laying solid theoretical and methodological foundations for es multiscale research. Nevertheless, fewer studies have conducted side-by-side comparative analyses between fine grids and administrative units specifically within the loess plateau. This research gap is particularly prominent in this geomorphic region, which is characterized by highly fragmented loess landforms and rigid, fixed administrative demarcations. Current regional es assessments mostly adopted a single scale and fall into two separate strands: high-resolution grids evaluations capturing fine ecological heterogeneity, and county scale analyses oriented toward administrative governance. Each scale analysis has notable limitations, which underscores the necessity and urgency of multi-scale comparative research. While grid-scale analyses yield scientifically rigorous results, these findings are often difficult to translate directly into management policies at the administrative division level (). This creates a disconnect between research outcomes and practical management needs that impedes their effective implementation. Conversely, simplistic county-scale analyses tend to obscure subtle changes in ecological functions driven by within-county differences in topography and land use, leading to an “average trap” () that precludes the accurate identification of key ecological issues and vulnerable areas. To address this dilemma, building on previous research findings (; ), we introduced a multi-scale comparative analysis framework and selected 1-km grid scale and county scale for targeted comparison aligned with the ecological and management characteristics of the shanxi section of the yellow river basin (syrb). The core rationale for this design is that the 1-km grid scale can effectively capture subtle fluctuations in ess amid the fragmented terrain of the loess hilly and gully region, while balancing computational efficiency and assessment accuracy. As the most basic unit of administrative management and policy implementation in china, county-scale results are directly linked to local government performance evaluations and the design of ecological compensation mechanism (), which accompanies closely with the practical management needs of the syrb. By comparing results across these two scales, we can precisely diagnose the spatial mismatch between natural ecological boundaries and artificial administrative boundaries.
in september 2019, ecological protection and high-quality development of the yellow river basin (yrb) was elevated to a major national strategy in china. As a core region in the middle reaches of the yrb, the syrb occupies an exceptionally pivotal strategic position. Located on the eastern edge of the loess plateau, the syrb is one of the regions with the highest risk of soil erosion and most fragile ecological environment (zhu et al., 2019). The syrb is also an important ecological barrier that prevents the eastward invasion of sand and wind from moving southward, and has an irreplaceable role in guaranteeing the ecological security (). Accordingly, ess research in the syrb delivers regionally representative empirical evidence while directly responding to core demands of national ecological conservation strategies. Spatially, relevant assessments have evolved from coarse basin-scale evaluations to targeted analyses of key sub-basins and segments, such as the henan () and inner mongolian (yang j. Et al., 2024). Distinct trade-off and synergy relationships among ess were jointly shaped by local climatic conditions and human activities. Thematically, research scopes have expanded from separate quantification of individual ess to integrated analytical frameworks that link ecological spatial patterns, environmental quality, and ecosystem service functions (yue et al., 2025). Notwithstanding these advances, a prominent research gap remains. Most existing studies relied on a single fixed spatial scale and implicitly assumed that analytical scales aligned seamlessly with optimal ecological management scales. This assumption overlooks the pervasive scale mismatches between natural biogeophysical processes and human administrative boundaries. This problem is particularly acute in the syrb, where highly fragmented loess landforms intersect with rigid administrative demarcations. We hypothesized that such scale mismatches impaired ecological governance efficiency in two primary ways: county-level analyses tended to mask fine-scale ecological spatial heterogeneity, and high-resolution grid-based analyses generated scientifically robust outputs difficult to translate into implementable administrative policies. Against this backdrop, this study established a multiscale comparative analytical framework that systematically contrasts results derived from 1-km raster grids and county administrative units. We aimed to quantify risks of governance inefficiency stemming from scale mismatches and identify feasible pathways for coordinated cross-scale ecological management.
in this context, this study explored es interactions in the syrb with three core objectives: (1) quantify spatiotemporal patterns of five dominant ess and their driving factors from 2005 to 2020; (2) compare es trade-off and synergy characteristics across 1 km grid and county scales, and unpack scale-dependent mechanisms; and (3) identify multiscale es bundles and establish a zoned cross-scale governance framework to resolve natural-administrative scale mismatches. This study proposes differentiated ecological restoration strategies for the yrb, and provides empirical support for regional sustainable ecological development.
2 data and methods
2.1 study area
the syrb (110°14?–114°33?E, 34°34?–40°31?N) is located in the middle reaches of the yellow river (figure 1). It encompasses the main stem of the yrb and its tributaries that traverse the interior of shanxi province of china (). The yellow river enters shanxi province at laoniuwan, pianguan county, and exits the province at nianpangou, yuanqu county, with an in-province reach of approximately 965 km, accounting for nearly one-fifth of the yellow river’s total length. The syrb covers 73.13% of shanxi province’s total land area, with elevation across the region ranging from 190 m to 3061 m. It contains key mountain ecosystems, including those of the lvliang and taihang mountains. While approximately 20% of its total area comprises valley plains and basins (). However, the syrb faces severe challenges including water scarcity, ecosystem degradation, and intensifying human–land conflict (zuo et al., 2024). The region has a temperate continental monsoon climate, with a mean annual temperature of 10.0 °c and mean annual precipitation ranging from 350 mm to 680 mm. Long-term, intensive resource exploitation in the region has exerted substantial pressure on the local ecosystem, and the efficacy of ecological restoration and conservation measures is crucial to the overall high-quality development of the yrb.
figure 1
2.2 data sources and processing
this study selected 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 as the research time nodes, mainly for the following reasons: it is highly consistent with the cycles of china’s 11th to 13th five-year plans, facilitating the analysis of the phased impacts of major national policies; in addition, these years have high data availability, ensuring the robustness and comparability of long-term analysis. The data sources are shown in table 1. All datasets were uniformly resampled to a 30 m spatial resolution for es analysis using arcgis software (esri, inc., Redlands, ca, usa), and projected to the new coordinate system (wgs 1984 utm zone 48n).
table 1
| parameter | data source | data collection time | spatial resolution |
|---|---|---|---|
| precipitation |
|
https://doi.Org/10.1038/s41597-019-0345-6https://www.Fao.Org/soils-portal/data-hub/soil-maps-and-databases/harmonized-world-soil-database-v12/en/https://www.Gscloud.Cn/https://www.Resdc.Cn/data sources.
all continuous raster outputs generated by the invest model (wy, cs, sc, hq) at 30 m resolution were aggregated to a uniform 1 km grid using block mean aggregation via the arcgis aggregate tool. Given that a 1 km cell contains approximately 1,111 30 m subpixels, the arithmetic mean value of all valid subpixel ecosystem service magnitudes within each 1 km grid was assigned as the output cell value. A 1 km grid resolution was adopted in this study to balance computational efficiency and regional ecological assessment accuracy, consistent with the multi-scale matching framework proposed by . Finer 30 m datasets capture micro-topographic details but lead to unaffordable computational burdens when coupled with county-scale socioeconomic data, while the 1 km scale facilitates the integration of biophysical simulation results and administrative governance units at the regional level, albeit with inevitable loss of micro-landscape heterogeneity.
2.3 research framework
in this study, we performed a comprehensive spatiotemporal assessment of ess in the syrb over the period 2005–2020. Given the region’s well-documented challenges of severe water scarcity and widespread soil erosion, we focused on five core ess critical to regional ecological security: water yield (wy), carbon storage (cs), soil conservation (sc), habitat quality (hq), and water purification (wp). Our analytical workflow was structured as follows: (1) we quantified the five target ess using the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (invest) model, and derived the multi-ecosystem services landscape index (mesli) through standardized normalization of the es results. (2) we employed the geographical detector (gd) model to disentangle the key driving factors underlying the spatiotemporal variations of individual ess. (3) we explored trade-offs and synergies among ess across multiple spatial scales via spearman’s rank correlation analysis and geographically weighted regression (gwr). Finally, (4) we identified esbs at different scales using the self-organizing map (som) model, to determine the dominant service functions of each regional unit, and to develop scale-adaptive, targeted management strategies for regional ecosystem conservation and restoration.
2.4 methods
2.4.1 quantification of ecosystem services
the calculation methods are listed as follows (table 2).
table 2
| ecosystem service | formula | variables |
|---|---|---|
| water yield | (1) | represents the water yield (mm) of grid unit x, and are the annual evapotranspiration (mm) and precipitation (mm) to each grid unit x, respectively |
| carbon storage | (2) | is the total carbon storage (t), represents above-ground biological carbon (t), represents underground biological carbon (t), represents dead organic matter carbon (t), represents soil carbon (t) |
| soil conservation | (3) (4) (5) | sdr is the soil conservation (t/hm2), the potential soil erosion is represented by rkls; usle represents the actual soil erosion (t/hm2), r represents the rainfall erosivity factor (mj·mm/hm2·h), k represents soil erodibility factor (t·hm·h/hm2·mj·mm), ls represents slope length and slope, p is erosion retention factor, c is the vegetation coverage factor |
| habitat quality | (6) | q is the habitat quality, is the habitat suitability of land use types , is the habitat degradation degree of land use types in grid , indicates the normalized constant, represents the semi-saturation constant |
| water purification | (7) | represents the pollutant output (kg), and represent the load of surface (kg) and underground pollutants (kg), respectively, and represent the surface and underground nutrient transport rate, respectively |
normalized calculation methods for the target ecosystem services.
localized parameter calibration was implemented for each es module within the invest model. For the wy module, the z parameter was assigned a value of 1.5, consistent with recent empirical investigations focused on the loess plateau (; ). Modeled wy outputs were validated against multi-source observational datasets, including the shanxi provincial statistical yearbook and shanxi water resources bulletin, alongside existing invest-based research targeting shanxi and the broader loess plateau (). For carbon storage, carbon density values were derived from field measurements in the syrb (). To validate the rationality of the selected carbon density parameters, the simulated results were compared with the sampling survey data from previous studies conducted in the region. For sc assessment, the rainfall erosivity (r) factor and soil erodibility (k) factor were separately derived from meteorological observations and the harmonized world soil database (hwsd). Indirect validation was performed by comparing spatial patterns of simulated potential soil loss against documented regional erosion distributions from published work (zhang et al., 2022). With respect to hq and nutrient retention modules, core parameter configurations followed well-established parameterization schemes from previous syrb-focused research (; ), and the reliability of the results was verified through comparison with published spatial patterns and trend analysis.
2.4.2 calculation of mesli
the mesli is a comprehensive environmental indicator that can effectively quantify the capacity of a given region to supply multiple ess (). This index is calculated as the sum of the standardized es indicators.
min–max standardization was implemented for positive ecosystem service indicators (i.E., Wy, cs, sc, hq), wherein larger values correspond to higher service provision. By contrast, reverse normalization was adopted for wp_n and wp_p—two metrics quantifying pollutant export loads instead of ecosystem purification capacity—to guarantee that elevated mesli scores uniformly reflect superior comprehensive ecosystem service supply capacity. The calculation formula is expressed as follows:where i denotes the type of es, n denotes the number of ess, is the data for the ith es, and and represent the maximum and minimum values of the ith es over the entire study period (2005–2020), respectively.
2.4.3 analysis of geographical detector
the gd is a spatial statistical method used to analyze the relationship between within-strata variance and total variance of the dependent variable, and to identify the driving force of each factor on the dependent variable by leveraging spatial stratified heterogeneity (). The core analytical principle of the gd is rooted in the spatial stratified heterogeneity of independent variables. This model only accepts categorical independent variables as input; therefore, all continuous independent variables must undergo discretization (grading/classification) prior to inclusion in model calculations (). In this study, we discretized all continuous variables using the natural breaks (jenks) method and classified each variable into 5 categories. To evaluate the robustness of the adopted discretization scheme, we compared the variations in q-statistics across three class levels (3, 5, and 7 categories), along with results derived from the quantile and equal interval discretization methods. The results indicated that although the absolute values of the q-statistics exhibited slight fluctuations, the ranking of the relative importance of the main influencing factors remained stable, suggesting that the findings of this study were insensitive to discretization parameters and had strong robustness. The calculation formula for the q-statistic is expressed as follows:where h is the stratification of variable y or factor x, and n are the number of units in layer h and the whole region, respectively, and are the variance of y values in layer h and the whole region, respectively, ssw and sst are the intra-layer variance and total variance of the whole region, respectively, and q is the influence of the driving factor, which takes a value in the range of 0–1. The larger the q value, the stronger the explanatory power of the factor.
the spatial heterogeneity of ess arises from the interaction of multiple influencing factors. In according with the actual situations of the study area and previous relevant studies (; ), we initially selected potential driving factors from two broad categories: natural factors and socio-economic factors. We first performed multicollinearity diagnostics on raw continuous predictors (gdp, population density, ndvi, annual precipitation, dem, mean annual temperature) following . Any continuous factor with a variance inflation factor greater than 10 or strong pairwise linear correlation was removed to eliminate linear redundancy. This collinearity test only covered continuous variables and excluded the categorical land use dataset, as vif algorithms are incompatible with categorical inputs. In addition, the root-restriction layer depth exhibited high collinearity with the digital elevation model (dem), and there was a spatial mismatch between their research scales. Therefore, this indicator was excluded. All reserved continuous driving factors were discretized into multiple grades via the natural breakpoint method to satisfy the categorical input requirement of gd. Land use type was retained directly without discretization due to its vital ecological significance for regional ess; the gd model natively accepts categorical variables, enabling joint analysis with discretized continuous drivers. Ultimately, seven driving factors were retained for model operation:gdp (x1), population density (x2), land use type (x3), ndvi (x4), annual precipitation (x5), dem (x6), and mean annual temperature (x7).
2.4.4 quantification of trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services
following the identification of key driving factors for es spatial heterogeneity using the geographical detector model, we next explored pairwise relationships among the five target ess to systematically quantify trade-offs and synergies across the study area. For this purpose, we employed spearman’s rank correlation coefficient analysis—a nonparametric statistical method that does not require normality assumptions for input data, making it particularly suitable for es spatial data with skewed distributions (). We implemented all correlation analyses in r version 4.5.0, covering the entire 2005–2020 study period in the syrb. To examine scale-dependent patterns in es relationships, we performed the analysis at two distinct, ecologically and administratively relevant scales: (1) a fine 1-km grid scale, and (2) a coarse administrative county scale. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients were interpreted at the conventional p < 0.05 and p < 0.01 significance levels as follows: positive values indicated a synergistic relationship between paired ess, negative values indicated a trade-off, and values not significantly different from zero indicated no linear monotonic relationship.
gwr reveals the spatial differentiation characteristics of the research object at a specific scale by constructing local regression equations for each point across the spatial dimension. With es variables as independent variables, the application of the gwr model to detect spatial interactions can reflect the spatial heterogeneity of trade-off and synergistic relationships in different regions (). During model execution, we employed a fixed kernel function and optimized the bandwidth using the aicc minimization criterion to ensure the model could accurately capture the spatial heterogeneity of the variables. The modeling equation of gwr is as follows:where is the dependent variable, is the spatial location of point i, and are the intercept and regression coefficient of point i, respectively, is the value of the kth independent variable at the ith point, n denotes the number of independent variables, and denotes the random error. Positive regression coefficients calculated by gwr indicate a spatial synergy between the two variables, whereas negative regression coefficients suggest a spatial trade-off relationship.
spearman’s rank correlation and gwr serve complementary roles in our analysis of es trade-offs and synergies. Spearman’s correlation provides a global, scale-explicit assessment, indicating whether two ess exhibit overall synergy or trade-offs across the study area. However, it cannot reveal where these relationships vary spatially. Gwr fills this gap by capturing spatial non-stationarity, thereby revealing local variations in the direction and magnitude of es relationships across sub-regions. In essence, while spearman’s correlation defines the regional baseline, gwr pinpoints where this relationship intensifies, weakens, or reverses. This dual framework is widely adopted in ecosystem service interaction studies to separate broad-scale patterns from local-scale heterogeneities.
fisher’s r-to-z transformation () was adopted to test whether spearman correlation coefficients of ecosystem service pairs exhibited statistically significant differences between the 1 km grid scale and county scale in 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020, so as to quantitatively identify scale-dependent divergence of ecological service trade-offs and synergies. The calculation formula is expressed as follows:where z1 and z2 are the fisher-transformed values of the correlation coefficients at the 1-km and county scales, respectively, and n1 and n2 are the corresponding sample sizes.
2.4.5 identification of ecosystem service bundles
following the multi-scale analysis of es trade-offs and synergies, we identified esbs to spatial group units with highly similar es supply profiles. The som is an unsupervised neural network algorithm that preserves the topological structure of input data, making it well-suited for identifying non-linear, spatially explicit es clusters (). We implemented som analysis using the kohonen package in r version 4.5.0 to reveal the potential non-linear relationships among ess and delineate esbs across the syrb. Within the wp service, wp_n and wp_p were highly correlated, and wp_n had been identified as the primary pollutant affecting ecosystem health in the broader yrb (). Therefore, we selected wp_n as the representative indicator for wp to simplify subsequent clustering analysis. The som analysis workflow was structured as follows: first, we input the normalized, dimensionless values of the five target ess into r version 4.5.0. Second, we determined the optimal number of esbs by examining the trend of the total within-sum-of-squares values, a widely used criterion for unsupervised clustering (). Third, we identified the final esbs for the study area using the trained som model. Finally, we spatially visualized and mapped the esb distribution using arcgis software (esri, inc., Redlands, ca, usa).
3 results
3.1 spatiotemporal distribution of ecosystem services
evident spatial heterogeneity was observed in ess across the syrb over 2005-2020 (figure 2). Wy, hq, cs, and sc showed a consistent spatial pattern: high values were concentrated in the mountainous areas on the eastern and western sides of the basin, while low values in the high urbanized central basin areas. Low hq values were extensively observed across a large proportion of the study area, whereas regions with high hq values were limited; this spatial pattern is consistent with the findings of and yang et al. (2022). In contrast, wp_n and wp_p exhibited the opposite spatial distribution to the aforementioned four ess, with high-value areas mainly concentrated in the central belt and the cultivated land on both sides of the basin. Increased wp_n and wp_p indicated a decline in water purification service capacity. This spatial pattern was spatially associated with the distribution of anthropogenic production activities and agricultural land uses, suggesting a potential linkage to non-point source pollution and phosphorus losses (; ).
figure 2
in terms of changes in the spatial distribution of ess from 2005 to 2020 (figure 2), wy decreased in the southern part and increased in the northern region. Hq showed minimal overall change, and the regions with hq declines were spatially consistent with the areas of expansion in construction land and cultivated land expansion. This spatial coincidence suggested a potential negative association between intensive land use conversion and habitat quality maintenance, consistent with findings reported in previous studies (). Cs remained relatively stable between 2005 and 2020. Areas with cs increases were spatially coincident with regions where cultivated land and construction land were converted to forest land, while cs declines occurred in areas where forest land was converted into other land use types. This spatial correspondence is consistent with the expectation that land use transitions involving forest establishment or removal exert measurable effects on carbon storage capacity. Sc showed an overall increasing trend. The timing of this increase overlapped with the implementation of a series of ecological protection and restoration initiatives in shanxi province since 2006, suggesting a potential temporal correspondence that merits further investigation through causal attribution methods (). However, the sc capacity in basin areas and regions with rapid urbanization remained comparatively low, indicating a key priority for subsequent ecological governance. Although wp_n and wp_p remained stable from 2005 to 2020, areas surrounding construction land showed relatively higher nitrogen and phosphorus output values, potentially reflecting the combined effects of construction land expansion and agricultural fertilizer application. However, direct attribution to specific anthropogenic sources would require more detailed agricultural input and land management data.
during 2005 to 2020, wy, sc, and wp_p showed fluctuating upward trends, whereas wp_n, cs, and hq showed decreasing trends (figure 3). The observed trends of ess in the syrb from 2005 to 2020 were temporally coincident with multiple ongoing changes in both climatic conditions and anthropogenic activities. These co-occurring increases may be related to changes in regional precipitation patterns and large-scale vegetation restoration efforts such as the grain for green program (returning farmland to forest). Correlatively, growing precipitation could potentially boost regional water yield, and vegetation rehabilitation was likely to strengthen soil conservation capacity. Meanwhile, elevated surface runoff linked to increased wy may facilitate the transport of phosphorus accumulated from farmland production, which could partly explain the upward trend of wp_p. The downward trend of wp_n overlapped chronologically with local agricultural non-point source pollution control policies, which may have contributed to nitrogen retention reduction. By comparison, cs and hq declined continuously across the study timeframe. Spatially, these losses were concentrated in zones undergoing urban expansion, industrial development and mineral exploitation, implying that habitat occupation and landscape fragmentation are plausible contributing drivers.
figure 3
3.2 spatiotemporal distribution of mesli
the mesli values for 2005-2020 indicated that the ecosystems in the syrb could provide multiple ess simultaneously (figure 4). Mesli showed a consistent spatial pattern, with high values concentrated in the mountainous areas on the eastern and western sides of basin, and low values distributed in the central basin belt and intensively urbanized regions. Notably, high mesli values were more highly aggregated in the southeastern part of the study area, whereas areas with concentrated urban construction land consistently had low values, which was consistent with the findings of previous related studies (; ). From 2005 to 2020, mesli showed an overall upward trend, with the average value increasing from 2.057 in 2005 to 2.168 in 2010, followed by a slight decrease to 2.163 in 2015, and a further increase to 2.247 in 2020. In terms of spatial changes, the north-central region of the syrb showed the most evident improvement over the study period, while the southeastern region exhibited a slight decrease. This spatiotemporal trend was temporally consistent with the implementation of large-scale ecological restoration projects across the region, though the extent to which these projects directly caused the observed mesli changes requires further attribution analysis. The mesli serves as a synthetic indicator of overall ecosystem multifunctionality and allowed us to validate our esb classification.
figure 4
3.3 factors influencing ecosystem services
single-factor detection results from the gd revealed the independent explanatory power of each driver for the spatial patterns of ess across four time points (figure 5). Wy was primarily governed by land use type (multi-year mean q = 0.535) and annual precipitation (multi-year mean q = 0.437). The q-statistic of land use type for wy spatial heterogeneity rose continuously from 2005 to 2020, whereas the explanatory power of annual precipitation declined gradually. Moderate explanatory effects on wy were also detected for dem, ndvi and mean annual temperature, with their individual q-values increasing year by year.
figure 5
cs was dominated by land use type, whose explanatory power consistently exceeded 0.980 across the entire study period. Ndvi (mean q = 0.364), dem (mean q = 0.246) and annual temperature (mean q = 0.215) also exerted substantial influences on the spatial distribution of cs, and the explanatory magnitude of each factor remained relatively stable over time.
sc were driven by ndvi (mean q = 0.172), dem (mean q = 0.234), and annual average temperature (mean q = 0.194).
hq spatial heterogeneity was jointly controlled by dem, annual mean temperature, ndvi and land use type. The multi-year average q values ranked as dem (0.113) > annual temperature (0.116) > ndvi (0.082) > land use type (0.075). Gdp and population density exerted negligible impacts on hq, with q-values consistently below 0.03 across all years.
land use type acted as the leading driver for both wp_n and wp_p. The q-value of land use type for wp_n stabilized at roughly 0.785 during 2005–2020, while its explanatory power for wp_p averaged approximately 0.713. Ndvi, dem and mean annual temperature constituted secondary influencing factors for wp_p.
across all four es metrics, gdp and population density exhibited consistently low q-statistic values. This indicated that natural drivers (climate, terrain, vegetation) explained more spatial variation in ess than the socioeconomic variables selected in this framework within the study watershed. Nevertheless, this result could not be interpreted as evidence that socioeconomic factors exerted weaker causal impacts on ess. Socioeconomic forces may shape ess indirectly via mediating variables included in our model, or their full effects may only be detectable at spatial scales finer or coarser than the two scales adopted in this study.
3.4 trade-offs and synergies of multi-scale ecosystem services
in this study, a correlation analysis of the six indicators (wy, cs, sc, hq, wp_n, and wp_p) was performed at the 1-km and county scales across 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. At the 1-km grid scale, most ess showed a synergistic relationship, with the hq-cs pair showing the highest synergy (figure 6). This result confirmed the internal consistency of these two services as structural ess: dense vegetation can simultaneously improve carbon sequestration capacity and biodiversity maintenance function by forming complex habitat structures, resulting in a typical synergistic gain effect (yang j. Et al., 2025). In contrast, wp_p exhibited consistent trade-off relationships with most other ess, with the most pronounced trade-off observed between wp_p and cs. This finding indicated that at the 1-km grid scale, areas with high cs were often accompanied by a higher risk of phosphorus output, reflecting the resource competition between vegetation cover and hydrological processes (). Specifically, although wp_p showed weak trade-off relationships with sc and hq, the result indicated the presence of a certain degree of compatibility between hydrological regulation functions and terrestrial ecosystem services. Notably, the correlation between wp_n and sc exhibited distinct interannual volatility during 2005–2020, showing significant correlation in 2005, non-significant correlation in 2010, extremely significant correlation in 2015, and significant correlation again in 2020. Different from the consistently stable and highly significant relationships of the other 14 es pairs, this unique temporal fluctuation was steadily reproduced through repeated data screening, outlier inspection, and recalculation, excluding potential methodological artifacts, outlier interference, or computational errors. All datasets adopted in this study were official standardized open-source products with unified quality control. Due to the lack of publicly available high-precision ground-truth data, further quantitative verification and calibration of individual dataset accuracy is currently unavailable. Accordingly, this study conservatively interpreted the wp_n–sc fluctuating relationship as the inherent interannual variability of regional ecosystem service interactions. From the perspective of long-term evolutionary trends, most trade-off relationships showed an optimizing trend from 2005 to 2020, with the intensity of trade-offs weakening or shifting to synergy relationships. However, the synergy between wp_p and other ess generally weakened, and the corresponding trade-off relationships continued to strengthen, suggesting that the water purification function faced increasingly prominent trade-off pressure in regional ecosystem management.
figure 6
compared with those at the 1-km scale, most paired ess exhibited more synergistic relationships at the administrative county scale (figure 7). The exceptions were the wp_n–sc and wp_p–cs pairs, which exhibited consistent trade-off relationships; notably the wp_p–sc pair shifted from synergistic relationships to a trade-off over the study period. The paired relationships with the strongest synergy and strongest trade-off at the county scale were consistent with those at the 1-km scale. Two core paired relationships remained stable and unchanged in their direction (synergistic or trade-off) throughout 2005–2020. Five pairs of synergistic relationships were strengthened or weakened by trade-offs, whereas eight pairs of synergistic relationships were weakened or strengthened by trade-offs. In terms of correlation changes, the relationships of sc–wy, hq–cs, wp_n–cs, wp_n–hq, and wp_n–wp_p showed highly significant correlations. Wp_p–cs was significantly correlated, whereas wp_n–wy and wp_p–wy weakened over time until they had no correlation.
figure 7
to statistically compare the correlation coefficients between the two scales, we applied fisher’s r-to-z transformation across the four study years. The results revealed that most es pairs (14 out of 15) did not show statistically significant differences in their correlation coefficients between the 1-km and county scales (|z| < 1.96, p > 0.05), indicating that the overall direction of es relationships was generally consistent across scales for the majority of service pairs. However, several notable exceptions were identified. The cs–sc pair showed significantly stronger synergy at the county scale than at the 1 -km scale in 2010 (z = 2.31, p < 0.05), 2015 (z = 2.40, p < 0.01), and 2020 (z = 2.03, p < 0.05), although no significant scale difference was detected in 2005 (z = 1.94, p > 0.05). Additionally, the hq–wp_n pair exhibited a significantly stronger synergy at the county scale compared to the 1 -km scale in 2020 (z = 2.14, p < 0.05). These findings confirmed that scale effects were particularly evident for pairs involving cs, sc, and wp services, especially in later study years, while other es relationships showed greater cross-scale consistency.
the gwr analysis results showed significant spatial heterogeneity in the trade-offs and synergies among ess across the syrb. At the 1-km scale, strong trade-offs were mainly reflected in the local spatial relationships of four es pair: wy–cs, cs–hq, cs–wp_p, and sc–wp_p. These strong trade-off zones were concentrated in the mountainous forest land areas on the eastern and western sides of the study area (figure 8). This spatial pattern can be explained by land use types and topographic features of these regions. Forest land is typically a hotspot for the supply of multiple ess, it is often difficult for different services to reach their optimal state simultaneously within the same spatial unit, especially in mountainous areas with complex terrain.
figure 8
regions with strong synergistic relationship for the wy–cs and wy–hq pairs were concentrated in the central basin belt basin of the study area. Regions with strong spatial synergies for the cs–sc, cs–hq, wy–wp_n, cs–wp_n, sc–wp_n, and hq–wp_n pairs were scattered across the study area. With the expansion of the spatial scale from 1-km grid to the county level, the trade-off or synergistic relationships between the same es pairs became more obvious, and most service relationships exhibited the strongest synergistic effects at the county scale. The spatial distribution of es trade-offs and synergies at the 1-km grid scale showed high temporal stability from 2005 to 2020. In terms of the overall spatial distribution of es trade-offs and synergies, the proportion of grid units with synergistic relationships was generally higher than that with the trade-off relationships across the study area (figure 9). Among the 15 paired es combinations, only the cs–wp_p pair had a higher areal proportion of trade-offs than synergies. For all remaining 14 pairs, the areal proportion of synergies exceeded that of trade-offs; of these, the wy–hq, wy–wp_n, wy–wp_p, cs–sc, cs–hq, cs–wp_n, sc–wp_p, hq–wp_n, hq–wp_p, and wp_n–wp_p pairs all showed a substantially higher areal proportion of spatial synergies than trade-offs. From 2005 to 2020, the spatial proportion of synergies for 13 of the 15 ess pairs increased gradually, while only the proportions for the wy–wp_p and hq–wp_p pairs decreased over time.
figure 9
at the administrative county scale, all 15 paired ess relationships showed more extensive spatial synergies compared with the 1-km grid scale, and spatial trade-off zones were more dispersedly distributed (figure 10). This indicated that the county scale held greater synergistic potential for the coordinated management of multiple ess. However, during 2005–2020, although the overall areal proportion of trade-off areas remained relatively small, it exhibited a continuous expanding trend over time (figure 11). This suggested that regional ess face growing developmental conflicts, which highlights the necessity for targeted optimization pathways to improve the comprehensive supply capacity and long-term stability of regional ecosystems. Notably, the sc–hq pair showed a synergistic relationship across the study area between 2005 and 2010, but shifted to a dominant trade-off relationship across the study area during 2015–2020, reflecting a growing imbalance and prominent functional contradiction between sc and hq maintenance.
figure 10
figure 11
the results of the correlation coefficients between the two scales revealed that the synergy between hq and cs was significantly stronger at the county scale than at the 1-km scale (z = 3.56, p < 0.01). Similarly, the trade-off between cs and wp_p was significantly weaker at the county scale (z = ?2.89, p < 0.01), consistent with the observed directional reversal for this pair. For most other es pairs, although the correlation coefficients differed in magnitude between scales, the differences were not statistically significant (p > 0.05). These results confirmed that scale effects are particularly pronounced for pairs involving cs and wp_p, while other relationships exhibited greater cross-scale consistency in their overall direction.
3.5 spatiotemporal distribution and characterization of ecosystem service bundles
to determine the optimal number of esbs, we applied the elbow method (). The total within-sum-of-squares (wss) was computed for k = 2 through k = 6 at both scales. The elbow point where the marginal decrease in wss began to flatten was clearly identified at k = 4 for both scales (figures 12a, 13a), indicating that four clusters optimally balance model fit and parsimony. Accordingly, four esbs were identified at both scales across the syrb. At the 1-km grid scale, the four esbs were classified as the cs–hq synergistic bundle, low synergistic bundle, key synergistic bundle, and integrated ecological bundle (figure 12). From 2005 to 2020, the overall spatial layout of the esbs showed minimal change, with no significant transitions between the different esb types. The cs–hq synergistic bundle was dominated by the core ecological functions of hq and cs, and was mainly distributed in areas with extensive concentrated cultivated land and grassland. This bundle accounted for the largest areal proportion of in the study area, with its total area decreasing from 73235 km2 in 2005–68635 km2 in 2020 (figure 14). The low synergy bundle was characterized by consistently low supply levels across all ess, was mainly distributed in areas with concentrated construction land and unused land, and showed an increasing trend in areal extent from 2005 to 2020. Notably, significant differences in the mean mesli values were detected across the four identified esb types (anova, f = 37.61, p < 0.001). At the 1 km grid scale, the integrated ecosystem service bundle exhibited the highest average mesli (3.95 ± 0.28), followed by the key synergy bundle (2.57 ± 0.27), the cs-hq synergy bundle (2.08 ± 0.21), and the low-synergy bundle (1.43 ± 0.17). This gradient demonstrated that the esb classification established in this study effectively captures overall disparities in ecosystem service supply capacity. Regions categorized as low-synergy bundles required targeted ecological management interventions.
figure 12
figure 13
figure 14
the key synergistic bundles were dominated by wy, hq, and cs, and was mainly distributed in forest land areas. These bundles effectively delivered core ecological regulatory functions, but their sc supply capacity was insufficient. The total area of this bundle decreased from 33046 km2 in 2005–32611 km2 in 2020 (figure 14). The integrated ecological bundles accounted for the smallest areal proportion across the study area, and was mainly distributed in core forestland regions with high hq and relatively complete es supply capacity, holding high ecological functional potential. The total area of this bundle decreased slightly from 818 km2 in 2005 to 765 km2 in 2020 over the study period. The continuous expansion of the low synergistic bundle and the shrinkage of the integrated ecological bundle indicated that the overall supply capacity and stability of ess across the study area were facing severe challenges.
at the administrative county scale, three of the four esb categories, cs–hq synergistic bundles, integrated ecological bundles, and key synergistic bundles, were functionally consistent with the classification defined at the 1-km grid scale, whereas a fourth, scale-specific wp–wy–sc synergistic bundles emerged, reflecting significant scale effects in es clustering patterns (figure 13). This functional consistency validated the robustness of our classification, while the county-specific wp-wy-sc bundle captured a genuine scale-averaging effect. This indicated that regional ecosystems exhibited different es aggregation characteristics at different spatial scales. The wp–wy–sc synergistic bundle was dominated by wp, wy, and sc functions, and showed no significant spatial transitions with other esbs types from 2005 to 2020. Its total areal extent remained stable at 1610.7 km2, accounting for only 1.38% of the total study area (figure 15). Consistent with the 1 km scale results, the cs–hq synergistic bundles accounted for the largest proportion of the study area at the county scale. Temporally, its total area increased from 69002.9 km2 in 2005–82611.5 km2 in 2015, and then dropped back to 69606.7 km2 in 2020. The area diagram showed that from 2005 to 2020, a substantial number of county units shifted from the cs–hq synergy bundle (dominated by two core es functions) to the key synergy bundle and integrated ecological bundle (characterized by multi-es dominance). This trend indicated that the study area was shifting toward diversified, multi-functional es supply at the county scale.
figure 15
4 discussion
4.1 impacts of drivers on ecosystem services
wy reflects ecosystem water retention capacity and is generally considered primarily controlled by precipitation in semi-arid regions (). However, our gd results revealed that land use type, rather than precipitation, dominated the spatial variation of wy in the syrb, presenting a counterintuitive finding. This paradox can be reasonably explained as follows: first, the invest wy module calculated actual evapotranspiration based on land-use biophysical parameters. Land-use differences directly altered evapotranspiration and water loss, thereby strongly regulated spatial wy patterns and even weakened precipitation-driven gradients. Second, continuous precipitation data must be discretized in gd analysis, which may underestimate its explanatory power relative to the inherently categorical land-use variable. Third, the fragmented loess terrain of the syrb led to highly heterogeneous rainfall interception and infiltration, which were better captured by land-use patterns than by precipitation alone (). Spatially, the southeastern forested areas showed low evapotranspiration and high wy, whereas other land-use types exhibited greater water loss. Therefore, land-use-mediated evapotranspiration variation overrided precipitation effects and became the dominant driver of wy spatial distribution in the study area.
the high-value areas of cs were mainly distributed in forest lands with dense vegetation cover, which exhibited favorable vegetation conditions and strong carbon sequestration capacity, especially the accumulation of soil organic carbon (). By contrast, low-value cs areas were concentrated in cultivation and construction lands, where vegetation has been reduced and carbon density is relatively low owing to urbanization expansion (zhai et al., 2021). Land use type and ndvi played important roles in the distribution of cs. For sc, previous work in the middle and upper reaches of the yrb identified slope and relative humidity as primary controls (). However, in this study, land use type, dem, temperature, and ndvi jointly influenced the sc capacity of the syrb. Owing to the different natural conditions, the influencing factors of the different sub-basins in the yrb were different. The hq was generally low across most of the study area, and a few areas with high values were distributed in the core areas of forest land on the east and west sides. Consistent with our gd results, dem, annual temperature, ndvi, and land use types were endogenous drivers that determined the spatial distribution of hq in the syrb (). The main influencing factor for wp was also land use type.
moreover, the gd method is intrinsically more sensitive to categorical predictors than to continuous ones that require discretization—a methodological feature that may inflate the q-statistic for land use relative to climate gradients. On the other hand, this statistical dominance is not merely a model artefact; it also captures genuine ecological differences among land use categories. In the syrb, functional divergence between forests, grasslands, croplands, and construction lands was substantially greater than intra-category variability driven by climatic factors alone. More importantly, rather than treating land use as a purely independent causal agent, we interpreted its high q-statistic as an integrative proxy that encapsulated the cumulative effects of multiple intertwined drivers. It reflected topographic constraints (through land suitability), vegetation conditions (via ndvi), and anthropogenic interventions (including ecological restoration policies and agricultural practices). Thus, the finding does not constitute a circular tautology—provided we recognize land use as a synthetic indicator of coupled human–natural system dynamics, rather than as an isolated biophysical variable.
admittedly, multiple invest modules simulated ess based on land use and cover data as core inputs, which may produce inherent statistical correlation between land use types and modelled es outputs and introduce analytical artifacts. However, cross-regional comparative geographical detector evidence demonstrated that land use does not invariably serve as the dominant driving factor for es spatial patterns. And confirmed that topography and climate showed stronger explanatory power in other watersheds even when land use was included as a candidate factor. The extremely high q-statistic of land use within the shanxi yellow river reach arose jointly from two aspects: the inherent input structure of the invest model, and the dramatic landscape heterogeneity shaped by ecological restoration, as well as urban expansion and mining activities in this region. Distinct land-use types corresponded to vastly different vegetation, soil and disturbance levels, and generated genuine gaps in ecosystem service supply. Therefore, the dominant role of land use revealed by gd analysis reflects both model characteristics and the unique local ecological background, rather than a meaningless circular inference derived solely from model parameter settings.
the dominant role of land use as an integrative proxy is further substantiated by the region’s policy and terrain context. From 2005 to 2020, it overlapped with the consolidation stage of china’s grain for green project. In the syrb, a region typified by steep slopes and highly fragmented terrain, this policy has accelerated the transformation of sloping cultivated (>25°) to forestland and grass land. Such a top-down policy intervention, combined with the region’s inherent topographic constraints, has produced a synergistic, superimposed effect on ecosystem structure and function. Research on the loess plateau confirms that over the past 2 decades, implementation of the grain for green program has become the main driver of enhanced carbon sequestration, vegetation restoration, and reduced soil erosion (). Within this terrain-limited scope, policies provide the economic and social impetus to promote and guide land use changes. This concept aligns with the findings from global semi-arid regions, where terrain complexity regulates the relationship between land management practices and ecosystem outcomes ().
therefore, rather than treating land use as a singular causal agent, we recognized it as a synthetic indicator of coupled human-natural system dynamics. This nuanced interpretation, we contend, more faithfully represents the socio-ecological reality of the syrb—a region characterized by complex loess topography and intensive policy-driven landscape transitions.
4.2 impacts of multi-scale management on trade-offs and synergies
spatial trade-off and synergy patterns among ess are not a fixed intrinsic properties, but substantially reshaped with shifting analytical scale, highlighting the necessity of multi-perspective es interaction analysis to formulate targeted ecological management schemes. In this study, both the magnitude and spatial distribution of es trade-offs and synergies showed distinct disparities between the 1-km and county scales. For instance, cs–hq showed stronger synergies at the county scale, whereas hq–wp_p displayed weak trade-offs at the 1-km scale yet mild synergies at the county scale. Overall, synergistic effects of ess intensified and the trade-off effect weakened at coarser administrative scales, consistent with and zhang et al. (2025). Temporal trends from 2005 to 2020 further revealed a gradual decline in synergy intensity at the county scale. This finding indicates that temporal evolutionary characteristics of es interactions should be jointly considered alongside scale-dependent laws governing es trade-offs and synergies.
this study identified significant scale dependence in the cs–wp_p linkage. At the 1-km grid scale, the pair exhibited a trade-off relationship, while at the county scale, the relationship reversed to synergy. This phenomenon is closely linked to the modifiable areal unit problem, a well-documented source of uncertainty in spatial statistical analysis. As zen et al. (2019) reported for the eastern alps, aggregating high-resolution es datasets to administrative jurisdictions inevitably erodes fine spatial heterogeneity, restructuring spatial clustering patterns. At the fine 1-km grid scale, raw data retain detailed topographic and land-use heterogeneity, capturing localized ecological resource competition. On steep slopes, high forest coverage boosts cs while accelerating phosphorus loss via surface runoff, generating a statistically significant negative correlation (trade-off) between cs and wp_p. County-level spatial averaging eliminates these micro-scale extreme differences and overturns the statistical correlation. Finer grid units amplify intra-unit ecological variability and highlight local divergences, while coarser aggregation creates an averaging effect that masks micro-terrain and land-use disparities (zeng et al., 2024).
such scale-driven directional reversal can also be explained by shifting dominant driving forces across spatial scales. At the fine 1-km grid scale, the wp_p–cs interactions are mainly controlled by local biophysical attributes including slope, soil type, and vegetation coverage. By contrast, county scale es relationships are dominated by broad-scale environmental gradients, such as climatic and geomorphic zones (). Micro-scale patterns are primarily shaped by natural biophysical conditions, while macro county-scale dynamics are increasingly modulated by socioeconomic factors. Most es pairs feature stronger interaction magnitudes at coarser scales (). Counties with favorable hydrothermal conditions deliver elevated overall es supply: abundant precipitation and moderate temperature simultaneously promote vegetation carbon sequestration and runoff-related phosphorus output, forming synergistic correlations. Larger analytical extents also sustain higher biodiversity and resource utilization efficiency, further reshaping es interaction patterns ().
beyond biophysical drivers, the cross-scale relationship reversal may also reflect institutional administrative partitioning, corresponding to the natural-administrative scale mismatch hypothesis proposed in the introduction. As china’s basic unit for policy enforcement, countiesimplement unified territorial spatial planning, major functional zone delineation and ecological compensation policies. Although grid-scale patches face resource competition between ecological and cultivated land functions, integrated county-level governance coordinates multiple ecological targets and yields holistic es synergy. A single county concurrently manages water conservation zones (reducing wp_p loss to safeguard water purification) and permanent basic farmland protection areas. These two governance priorities operate in parallel rather than competing, shaping county-wide synergistic es supply at the county scale (zeng et al., 2024). This finding validates our hypothesis that scale mismatch impairs governance efficiency: county-level aggregated policies overlook localized trade-offs on steep upstream terrain and hinder optimal resource allocation.
existing basin-scale literature yields inconsistent es interaction conclusions. Concluded that a trade-off exists between wy and cs in the yrb, while found significant trade-offs between hq, cs, and wp_n. Found that the relationship between ess in the yrb was dominated by weak trade-offs and synergies at a temporal scale, with trade-offs strengthened in the upper yrb and the middle yrb and synergies strengthened in the lower yrb. Such discrepancies stem from divergent analytical scales and heterogeneous regional environmental backgrounds, emphasizing the value of region-specific multi-scale assessments like this study instead of universal basin-scale generalizations.
notable volatility was observed in the wp_n-sc linkage. Interannual agricultural activities and climate fluctuations are potential drivers, yet limited time-series data on fertilizer application and land management intensity prevent robust validation. We therefore frame these interpretations as tentative hypotheses requiring further exploration with high-frequency datasets and process-based models. To improve the identification of local features and explanatory power of es relationships, future research should combine multi-scale data, introduce high-resolution land use information, and develop cross-scale ecosystem management strategies that balance fineness and wholeness.
it is important to distinguish between two types of stability to resolve apparent logical ambiguity. Within the constraints of specific ecological contexts and functional distributions, the relationships between these ess are relatively stable (zhang et al., 2022). Cross-scale comparison demonstrates that es pair linkages lack scale invariance: switching from fine grids to county units can completely reverse the direction of trade-offs and synergies, as evidenced by the cs–wp_p pair. No universal fixed es interaction pattern exists across all spatial scales. Recognizing this cross-scale lability constitutes the core merit of our multi-scale design and provides empirical evidence to avoid scale mismatch biases in territorial ecological policymaking.
4.3 management strategies for multi-scale ecosystem service bundles
the cs-hq synergistic bundle, the most widely distributed bundle at both 1-km and county scales, delivers comprehensive ess and ranks as the core conservation priority in the study area. At the 1-km scale, this bundle concentrates in the biodiversity reserves including the taihang mountain and zhongtiao mountain, where fragmented grassland, cropland and built-up land create persistent anthropogenic disturbance. Corresponding management must coordinate dual spatial scales: county governments formulate unified territorial spatial plans, while 1-km fine zoning guides localized refined control. In line with the three zones and three lines policy, these zones should be demarcated as coordinated ecological function protection areas to curb cropland and construction land expansion—the primary land-use conversion threat identified in our spatial analysis. Local policies shall shift from single-target ecological restoration to multi-objective synergy optimization. Pilot ecological product value realization projects are proposed to convert carbon sinks, water conservation, and biodiversity maintenance into tradable ecological assets (). Supported by our cross-scale disparity findings, a basin-wide ecological compensation mechanism should be implemented: downstream beneficiary counties transfer fiscal payments to upstream counties that restrict development to safeguard cs–hq synergies. Moreover, afforestation shall follow near-natural restoration rather than single-species high-water-consumption plantations, which prior local studies found induce soil desiccation and reduced water yield (zhao et al., 2025).
the integrated ecological bundle experienced notable areal shrinkage from 818 km2 (2005) to 765 km2 (2020) in our long-term grid-scale assessment, representing a continuous decline in high-level comprehensive es supply. This bundle covers zones with balanced provision of carbon storage, soil conservation, water purification and habitat quality, and requires tiered cross-scale protection arrangements. At the 1-km fine scale, shrinkage hotspots shall be marked as first-level ecological redlines to limit scattered industrial and residential encroachment. At the county administrative scale, these integrated zones shall be designated key ecological protection units within county master plans, with annual ecological performance assessments tied to local government appraisal. Given their balanced multi-service capacity, integrated bundle areas shall serve as core demonstration zones for coordinated ecological governance, linking grid-scale degradation monitoring to county-level ecological restoration funding allocation to reverse the observed area contraction trend.
the low synergistic bundle, identified at the 1-km scale, clustered in densely populated central basin urban agglomerations where urbanization drives severe es trade-offs. Uniform restrictive development policies are inappropriate here; instead, ecological constraints must be embedded within county economic development frameworks, with fine grid zoning delivering site-specific regulatory standards. Since this bundle is only discernible at the fine 1-km scale, it underscores the need for targeted, localized interventions within broader county-level plans. Counties shall enforce total construction land quota control, linking new land approval to equivalent ecological land compensation within identical watershed units to preserve natural ecological integrity. An annual habitat quality monitoring system based on 1-km esb maps shall be launched: if habitat quality degrades for two consecutive years within low-synergy zones, county authorities automatically tighten urban development boundaries and cut subsequent construction land quotas.
the wp–wy–sc synergistic bundle, identified at the county scale, aggregation feature covering two complete administrative units. Driven primarily by land-use change and ndvi variations per our geographic detector results, integrated watershed governance is required. First, differentiated pollutant discharge permits should be allocated: counties dominated by this bundle adopt stricter total emission caps than provincial benchmarks, with emission trading confined within single watersheds to avoid cross-basin pollution transfer. Second, following semi-arid riparian management standards validated by yang s. Et al. (2025), hierarchical riparian restoration buffers are deployed along river networks; primary tributaries adopt 100 m ecological buffer zones and secondary tributaries adopt 50 m buffers to mitigate soil loss and non-point source pollution. Third, water-saving irrigation and rainwater harvesting should be promoted to secure river ecological base flow and wetland recharge, coordinating water yield and habitat quality improvements across the watershed.
crucially, this study’s core concern regarding scale mismatch between natural ecological units and administrative jurisdictions is addressed via a two-tier cross-scale governance framework. The 1-km grid acts as a fine ecological early-warning tool, detecting localized es trade-offs masked by county-level spatial averaging to deliver targeted micro-restoration schemes. The county scale serves as the operational unit for policy implementation, fiscal compensation and inter-departmental coordination. We propose a clear hierarchical linkage mechanism: county governments incorporate 1-km esb spatial outputs into territorial planning to prioritize protection of fine-scale low-synergy shrinkage hotspots and integrated bundle degradation zones. Meanwhile, county-level aggregated esb classification underpins macro regional policies including basin ecological compensation and watershed pollutant trading. This framework integrates the high diagnostic resolution of grid data with the institutional operability of administrative units, resolving the scale mismatch dilemma and translating our multi-scale empirical findings into actionable governance tools.
ecosystem service bundle zoning provides targeted, data-driven support for differentiated ecological management rather than generic policy recommendations. All strategies above are tailored to the scale-dependent spatial patterns, dominant human–natural threats, long-term area change trends and driving mechanisms identified in our dual-scale esb assessment. This multi-tiered cross-scale governance model can be replicated for ecological zoning in fragmented loess hilly regions, supporting coordinated improvement of regional ecosystem functions and long-term sustainable development of the yellow river basin.
4.4 limitations and prospects
this study explored multi-scale associations between ess and their driving factors and identified dominant es bundles to provide targeted ecological management implications. Nevertheless, several limitations of this study should be acknowledged. First, the temporal observations were sampled at 5-year intervals from 2005 to 2020 rather than using continuous time-series data, and such discrete temporal resolution may bias the detected synergies and trade-offs among ess. Second, inherent uncertainties exist in the invest modelling framework. The model simplifies real-world ecological processes, and its outputs are highly sensitive to parameter configurations and input data quality. Key sensitive parameters vary across the four modules adopted in this study: the z parameter regulating precipitation–evapotranspiration interactions dominates wy simulations; land-use-specific carbon densities bring substantial uncertainties to cs estimation; the r and k erodibility factors primarily govern sc results; and distance-decay coefficients of threat factors largely shape hq outputs. Notably, only the water yield module was calibrated against official statistical yearbook and water resources bulletin data, while all other invest outputs lack field observational validation, which may introduce additional uncertainties into the overall es assessment.
notably, another scale-related limitation arises from the 30 m-to-1 km spatial aggregation implemented in this study. Fine-resolution 30 m model outputs were aggregated to 1 km grids using block mean statistics to balance computational efficiency and regional-scale analytical applicability. Inevitably, inevitably, this scale generalization smooths fine-scale topographic heterogeneity and micro-landscape variations across the fragmented loess plateau terrain, which may partially obscure small-scale ecological variability and weaken localized spatial differences in es distributions. This scale trade-off represents a necessary compromise for multi-scale analysis yet introduces inherent analytical limitations.
in addition, spatial resolution mismatch exists between datasets: fine-resolution biophysical data were integrated with coarse administrative-level socioeconomic statistics, which may hinder accurate characterization of fine-scale spatial interactions between ecological supply and human demand. Furthermore, detailed soil properties were excluded from driving factor analysis due to data availability constraints. Nonetheless, slope, ndvi, and precipitation—the predominant controls governing soil conservation and carbon sequestration across the loess plateau—were fully incorporated into our analysis. Although soil attributes were not directly quantified, gd can partially capture edaphic effects through vegetation and topographic interactions. Still, unmeasured spatially heterogeneous soil properties may induce unquantified biases, which can be better addressed in future studies with high-resolution soil datasets.
beyond data-level improvements, we highlight two key research prospects. First, while the gd effectively quantifies the global explanatory capacity of individual drivers, it fails to capture spatially nonstationary driver–es relationships across subregions. Systematic factor interaction detection was not performed in this study, as our core objective was to identify and rank dominant independent drivers to support targeted management. Ecological theories imply considerable interactive effects between land use and precipitation for wy, as well as between topography and vegetation for sc and cs on the loess plateau, though quantitative assessment of such couplings remains insufficient. Emerging geographically weighted machine learning approaches, such as geographical random forest, can effectively disentangle localized driving mechanisms and interactive effects at grid and subregional scales, enabling more refined ecosystem regulation (). Second, the scale mismatch issue identified in this work highlights the need for robust cross-scale linkage frameworks that can translate fine-scale ecological insights into administrative-scale policies without losing localized spatial information. Addressing these multi-scale challenges is critical to advancing scale-adaptive and spatially precise ecosystem governance.
5 conclusion
natural environmental factors exerted stronger explanatory power on ess than socioeconomic factors. Land use was the main driver of ess in the syrb as follows: cs (mean q > 0.980), wp_n (mean q = 0.785), wp(mean q = 0.713). In addition, wy was strongly influenced by annual precipitation (mean q = 0.437), while cs and sc were driven by ndvi (cs: mean q = 0.364, sc: mean q = 0.172), dem (cs: mean q = 0.246, sc: mean q = 0.234), and annual average temperature (cs: mean q = 0.215, sc: mean q = 0.194). Hq was strongly influenced by dem (mean q = 0.113) and annual average temperature (mean q = 0.116), followed by ndvi (mean q = 0.082) and land use type (mean q = 0.075). Although the order of influence of the drivers varied slightly in different years, the overall development during the study period was relatively stable.
at the 1-km scale, 12 of the 15 es relationship pairs showed synergistic relationships. All 14 pairs of relationships, except for sc–wp_n, showed highly significant correlations during the study years. The highest synergistic relationship at both scales was observed for hq–cs (the average spearman’s r2 = 0.66, p < 0.01 at 1-km, r2 = 0.70, p < 0.01 at county scale), whereas the highest trade-off was for cs–wp_p (the average spearman’s r2 = ?0.40, p < 0.01 at 1-km, r2 = ?0.27, p < 0.05 at county scale).
four types of esbs, namely, cs–hq synergistic bundle, low synergistic bundle, key synergistic bundles and integrated ecological bundles, were divided at the 1-km scale. The transition between different esbs in 2005–2020 was not significant. From 2005 to 2020, the conversion area of key synergistic bundles was ?435 km2, while that of cs–hq synergistic bundle was ?4600 km2, and that of integrated ecological bundles was ?53 km2, and that of low synergistic bundle was 5088 km2. At the county scale, the four esbs observed were the cs–hq synergistic bundle, key synergistic bundles, wp–wy–sc synergistic bundles and integrated ecological bundle. From 2005 to 2020, the conversion area of key synergistic bundles was ?12697.5 km2, while that of cs–hq synergistic bundle was 603.8 km2, and that of integrated ecological bundles was 12093.7 km2, and that of wp–wy–sc synergistic bundle remained unchanged. From 2005 to 2020, more regions shifted from single ess to multiple synergistic ess.
statements
data availability statement
the original contributions presented in the study are included in the article/supplementary material, further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding author.
author contributions
zl: software, writing – original draft, methodology. Bw: writing – original draft. Zz: methodology, writing – review and editing, writing – original draft. Jw: writing – review and editing, conceptualization.
funding
the author(s) declared that financial support was received for this work and/or its publication. This research was funded by science and technology innovation programs of higher education institutions in shanxi, grant number 2024l520, the planning subject of philosophy and social sciences in shanxi province, grant number 2025qn064.
conflict of interest
the author(s) declared that this work was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.
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summary
keywords
ecosystem service bundles, ecosystem services, multiple scales, synergy, trade-off, yellow river basin
citation
lv z, wang b, zhen z and wang j (2026) multi-scale spatiotemporal trade-offs and synergies of ecosystem services: implications for zoned ecological governance in the shanxi section of the yellow river basin. Front. Environ. Sci. 14:1890546. Doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1890546
received
25 may 2026
revised
17 july 2026
accepted
21 july 2026
published
13 august 2026
volume
14 - 2026
edited by
salvador garcía-ayllón veintimilla, polytechnic university of cartagena, spain
updates
copyright
© 2026 lv, wang, zhen and wang.
this is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the creative commons attribution license (cc by). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
*correspondence: jinfang wang, wangjinfang@sxau.Edu.Cn
disclaimer
all claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher. |
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| Motivations for community participation in marine protected areas governance sys |
| Posted on Thursday, August 13 @ 00:02:55 PDT (3 reads) | |
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Abstract
declines in marine biodiversity have sparked global concerns, leading to increased commitments to establish marine protected areas (mpas) as a key tool to safeguard marine habitats and species from human and environmental pressures. However, the effectiveness of mpas in achieving their ecological goals is often undermined by insufficient consideration of the human dimension and by a lack of meaningful community engagement. While there is growing recognition of community engagement in mpa governance processes and the increased research attention it has garnered, there remains a notable absence of comprehensive, systematic reviews of this topic using the stakeholder participation assessment framework (spaf). This study, therefore, conducts a systematic literature review guided by the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (prisma) 2020 guidelines, using 68 peer-reviewed articles from google scholar, scopus, and web of science, to synthesize the literature on community engagement in mpas governance processes through the lens of the spaf. Findings reveal that while the need to gather community input, establish rapport with communities, and comply with legal requirements are primary drivers of participation, community engagement practices in many mpas often remain passive and serve only as tick-boxes. The study recommends adopting stakeholder analysis to ensure that public participation processes effectively incorporate diverse voices, knowledge systems, interests, and perspectives throughout all stages of the mpa governance process. Mpa authorities should therefore work with academia and other key stakeholders to develop, refine, and reform public engagement practices if conservation goals are to be met.
1 introduction
although the oceans host most of the planets biodiversity (relano and pauly, 2023; sala et al., 2021), they are experiencing degradation and significant biodiversity loss (). Declines in marine biodiversity have sparked global concern, leading to increased commitments to establish mpas (; ). Mpas are being established as a major tool to safeguard marine habitats, species, and ecosystem functions from human pressures (; villaseñor-derbez et al., 2022). The 2003 fifth world parks congress highlighted the crucial role of mpas in conserving biodiversity and promoting sustainable development while noting the significant disparity between marine (1%) and terrestrial (12%) protected areas (). Furthermore, the 2014 sixth world parks congress reaffirmed that the marine environment remains one of the least protected ecosystems, with human impact on the oceans continuing to escalate (). International frameworks like the uns sustainable development goal 14 (life below water) and the convention on biological diversity (cbd), including its post-2020 global biodiversity framework, have shaped the global agenda for marine conservation. All these frameworks emphasize the importance of mpas in protecting biodiversity (; ) and promoting governance systems that enable the effective participation of coastal communities, fishers, and other ocean users in the planning, design, and implementation of mpas (). To this end, countries have established mpas to fulfill international obligations, particularly to meet the cbds aichi biodiversity target 11, which calls for the conservation of at least 10% of coastal and marine areas through a well-connected system of protected areas by 2020, a goal also reflected in sdg 14.5 (; ; ). The united nations environment programme (2022), through the kunming-montreal global biodiversity framework, also sets ambitious targets, including ensuring that by 2030, at least 30% of all ecosystems, especially those important for biodiversity, are effectively conserved and managed through protected areas and other conservation measures. According to ), the kunming-montreal global biodiversity framework, the eu biodiversity strategy for 2030, and the agreement on marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction (bbnj) are driving a rapid expansion of mpas worldwide. Currently, about 3.4%?5% of the global oceans are protected, but further increases are needed to meet global targets (; ).
the establishment of new mpas is likely to continue in the future, though with increasing concerns regarding their conservation (; woodcock et al., 2017) and governance outcomes. The term mpas is a common generic term used to describe protected marine spaces, although different jurisdictions may refer to them as marine reserves, protected marine areas, no-take zones, fish boxes or fishery closure areas, marine sanctuaries, ocean sanctuaries, marine parks, marine conservation areas, ocean preserves, as well as special areas of conservation or sites of special scientific interest (; ; ). In certain regions, mpas are appreciated and celebrated for their effectiveness in protecting diverse habitats and providing ecological benefits, showcasing the value of conservation efforts in preserving marine ecosystems (). Although ecological protection is still seen as the fundamental objective of mpas worldwide, it is acknowledged that, for coastal resource management, mpas and marine conservation to be successful, social elements, governance issues, people, and human dimensions must be considered (; ; ). Achieving effective mpa outcomes require greater consideration of the human dimension, as many current marine conservation initiatives still inadequately integrate the broad social and human factors necessary for successful mpas (; ). These factors include appropriate governance, public engagement, and the integration of communities knowledge systems (). Edifying this observation, ) and ) argue that effective coastal management requires integrated, participatory approaches that actively involve communities in planning, management, monitoring, evaluation, and post-implementation analysis of conservation outcomes. Involving communities, especially by integrating their traditional knowledge, adds the human dimension to coastal management and fosters community ownership of the process (). Traditional ecological knowledge is anchored in the approaches of ethnoscience and human ecology, and these approaches are increasingly emphasizing the need to address contemporary challenges affecting resource conservation, resource management, and sustainable development ().
marine governance has often followed a top-down approach, failing to adequately involve locals in decision-making, leading to exclusionary conservation practices that undermine local rights and interests (). The creation of mpas often carries inherent conflict potential due to a disconnect between conservation objectives and economic development goals, leading to disagreements with local users over the designation and management of these protected areas (rangel et al., 2025). The key challenge is how to regulate the use of natural resources to ensure their long-term sustainability and economic viability (). Although state regulation and privatization have often been promoted as solutions, neither approach has been consistently successful, while some communities have effectively managed resources through locally developed governance institutions over extended periods (). This highlights the importance of collaborative environmental governance, where people, institutions, and communities work together, adapt, and learn continuously in response to changing conditions and uncertainty to achieve sustainable resource management (). Hence, one way to potentially increase the effectiveness of marine reserves is to implement and/or strengthen community-based management (cbm) (; ; smallhorn-west et al., 2019) since low support and low priority given by communities are among the main barriers to mpa effectiveness (; ). The effectiveness of mpas is also influenced by human behavior, particularly from communities, which can significantly impact their conservation outcomes and management success (; ). Pomeroy and douvere, (2008) defines a community as a social group of marine resources users who do not live in a single geographical unit but have different interests based on age, gender, class, ability, ethnicity, and economic factors. However, () also defines a community in the context of natural resource governance as people or persons whose livelihoods and wellbeing are dependent on local biophysical environment or directly experiencing the social and livelihood impacts of conservation interventions. The concept “community” is therefore narrower than the broader notion of “public” which encompasses all individuals, organizations, and institutions with an interest in environmental decision-making. The study focuses specifically on community participation because it seeks to understand the experiences and perspectives of those most directly affected by mpa governance. This is the definition adopted by this study. Using inclusive and transparent participatory processes that engage communities from the outset to co-design, co-implement, and co-manage mpas can effectively balance biodiversity protection with communities needs, leading to more sustainable and effective conservation outcomes (rangel et al., 2025; villaseñor-derbez et al., 2022).
mpas and the communities that depend on them are complementary and essential to one another, which is why they are often considered a coupled social-ecological system that warrants research (; ). According to ), two of the six factors that are consistently linked to mpa effectiveness are community engagement and governance. Based on the convention on biological diversitys aichi target 11, effective and equitable governance and management are essential for protected areas, indicating that merely designating a protected area is insufficient (schéré et al., 2021). However, many mpas fail to achieve their conservation objectives due to inadequate stakeholder engagement, particularly the limited involvement of communities throughout all phases of mpa development, as stakeholders are often only given opportunities to react to finalized plans rather than actively participate in the process (; schéré et al., 2021). Therefore, recent efforts in mpa management have shifted toward promoting inclusive practices and collaborative governance, recognizing the importance of community involvement (). Equity concerns may seem less urgent or apparent in marine contexts because mpas typically do not displace communities from their places/homes but rather restrict access to and use of marine spaces and resources (schéré et al., 2021). Nevertheless, these restrictions can significantly affect local livelihoods and resource access, underscoring the importance of inclusive and participatory governance approaches for achieving equitable and effective mpa management.
while in some regions mpas are celebrated for their effectiveness in protecting diverse habitats and providing ecological benefits, in others they face various challenges. Across the 27 reviewed mpa sites worldwide, failure to achieve ecological objectives was largely attributed to inadequate stakeholder engagement, identified as the most critical factor influencing mpa success (). According to ), two of the six factors that are consistently linked to mpa effectiveness are community engagement and governance. Traditionally, marine governance has often followed a top-down approach, whereby decisions regarding conservation planning, management, and resource use are primarily made by governments, external experts, or conservation agencies with limited involvement of communities in decision-making, leading to exclusionary conservation practices that undermine local rights and interests (). The creation of mpas often carries inherent conflict potential due to a disconnect between conservation objectives and economic development goals, which can lead to disagreements with local users over the designation and management of these protected areas (rangel et al., 2025). Hence, one way to potentially increase the effectiveness of marine reserves is to implement and/or strengthen community-based management (cbm) (), since low support and low priority given by communities are among the main barriers to mpa effectiveness (). Community here refers to a social group of marine resources users who do not live in a single geographical unit but have different interests based on age, gender, class, ability, ethnicity, and economic factors (). Using inclusive and transparent participatory processes that engage communities from the outset to co-design, co-implement, and co-manage mpas can effectively balance biodiversity protection with communities needs, leading to more sustainable and effective conservation outcomes (rangel et al., 2025; villaseñor-derbez et al., 2022).
mpas and the communities dependent on them are complementary and essential to one another, which is why they are frequently considered a coupled social-ecological system that warrants research (; ). ) Identified community engagement and governance as two of the six key factors consistently associated with the effectiveness of marine protected areas (mpas). Based on the cbds aichi target 11, effective and equitable governance and management are essential for protected areas, indicating that merely designating a protected area is insufficient (schéré et al., 2021). The primary aspect of procedural equity is the active involvement of all relevant stakeholders in the designation, implementation, and management of protected areas. However, many mpas fail to meet their conservation objectives due to inadequate stakeholder engagement (especially communities) throughout all mpa development phases (schéré et al., 2021). Therefore, recent efforts in mpa governance have shifted toward promoting inclusive practices and collaborative governance, recognizing the importance of community involvement (). Equity concerns may seem less urgent or apparent in marine contexts because mpas typically do not displace communities from their places/homes but rather restrict access to and use of marine spaces and resources (schéré et al., 2021). However, these restrictions can still significantly affect livelihoods, cultural practices, and access rights, particularly for resource-dependent coastal communities. This highlights the need for mpa governance approaches that explicitly address equity, inclusion, and participation.
while community engagement through participation is frequently incorporated into many mpa processes, the quality and nature of stakeholder participation and its influence on governance outcomes remain poorly understood (). Community participation has emerged as a valuable approach in mpa management, garnering significant global research attention, with a notable surge in studies on community participation in mpas in recent years (; ). ) Further note that, while recent years have seen a rise in studies on community involvement in mpas, there remains a notable absence of comprehensive, systematic reviews on this topic. This is partly due to the fragmented and siloed nature of research across multiple fields. Some review studies have examined related aspects of mpas, including participatory or citizen science in mpas (), socio-economic factors enhancing mpa effectiveness (), local residents views on management, governance, and surrounding development inputs of mpas, as well as their ecological and socioeconomic outcomes (), key metrics for measuring mpa performance (), community participation in asian biosphere reserves (), public opinion on australian mpas (raabe et al., 2024), stakeholder engagement in marine and coastal fisheries (schwermer et al., 2020), and bibliometric trends in community engagement in mpas (). However, despite the growing recognition of community participation in mpa management and the increasing research attention it has received (; ), and several literature reviews on mpas, there remains a lack of studies synthesizing findings on the quality and nature of community participation in mpas using the spaf. Given the foregoing background, a comprehensive systematic literature review is warranted to synthesize existing knowledge, identify gaps, and inform best practices on community participation in mpas guided by the spaf. This study therefore seeks to: (i) identify the reasons for public participation or limited participation in mpa processes; (ii) examine the participatory methods used; (iii) evaluate levels of public participation and influence across reviewed mpas; and (iv) examine factors affecting community participation.
1.1 theoretical framework: stakeholder participation assessment framework
spaf (figure 1) was designed to guide stakeholder engagement in marine spatial planning (msp) and mpas. It is a comprehensive framework developed around the fundamental theoretical elements of participation: the reasons for participation in msp/mpas (why), the participants involved in the msp/mp governance processes (who), the timing of participation in each phase of the msp/mpa project (when), and the methods and strategies for facilitating participation (how) and evaluation of the levels of public participation (quesada-silva et al., 2019). It is designed for use by researchers or consultants seeking an objective understanding of the decisions regarding the level of involvement encouraged by the msp and mpa authorities.
figure 1
2 materials and methods
2.1 keywords and database
the study examined the nature, extent, and factors affecting community participation in mpas, through a systematic literature review guided by the prisma 2020 guidelines. The prisma approach follows a predetermined scientific approach and is accompanied by a protocol (). The prisma guidelines ensure that the study follows a structured, standardized protocol for identifying, screening, assessing eligibility, and extracting peer-reviewed articles from the chosen databases, thereby encouraging transparency and reliability (; ). Peer-reviewed articles were obtained from google scholar, scopus, and web of science (wos) databases. Other databases, such as pubmed and ieee xplore, were not included because they are more specialized in biomedical and engineering fields and were considered less relevant to the governance and social science focus of this review. Google scholar was also included because it is freely accessible (teixeira da silva, 2024) and has been regarded as reliable, with good coverage across disciplines, especially in the humanities and social sciences, where wos and scopus are known to be weak (). Google scholar provides broad citation coverage but also includes non-peer-reviewed materials, such as theses and unpublished documents (; ). Scopus and wos are generally regarded as reliable sources of peer-reviewed scholarly literature for systematic reviews and citation analyses (; garg et al., 2021; (pranckut?, 2021)). Combining these three data sources results in a more thorough coverage of diverse geographic locations () and disciplines (). Keywords such as “community participation,” “stakeholder engagement,” “stakeholder involvement,” “stakeholder participation,” “stakeholder collaboration,” “public engagement,” “public involvement,” “stakeholder consultation,” “co-management,” “adaptive co-management,” “collaborative governance,” “community-based management,” “marine protected area,” “marine reserve,” “marine conservation,” “marine park” were used. Appendix a provides detailed search strings for the article types used, the chosen disciplines, and the keywords. The keywords were developed through a process that combined: (i) core concepts derived from the study topic and objectives; (ii) terminology commonly used in the broader marine governance and conservation literature, and (iii) terms identified through preliminary scoping searches and previous review studies on participatory and collaborative marine conservation governance.
2.2 inclusion and exclusion criteria
refined searches in the wos, scopus, and google scholar databases yielded 354, 557, and 50 articles, respectively. Scopus and web of science were our primary databases, while google scholar was a supplementary database used to identify additional or missed studies; hence, the limited number of articles from the latter. So, this review was not dependent on google scholar but on those two databases. The final search for articles was conducted on 27 april 2026 (during the revision stage of the manuscript). A search was conducted across the title, abstract, and keywords. A total of 961 articles in research information systems (ris) file format were imported into covidence for further screening. Of the 961 articles, covidence identified 446 duplicates. This meant that 515 articles were retained for abstract and full-text screening. Articles that did not address the research objectives, book chapters, and theoretical or review papers were removed during the abstract and full-text screening. A total of 68 articles were retained for the final systematic literature review. Table 1 complements the search strings (appendix a) by providing more detail on the exclusion and inclusion criteria adopted in this study.
table 1
| inclusion criterion | exclusion criterion |
|---|---|
| peer-reviewed articles from google scholar, scopus, and wos | gray literature and journal papers not found in these three databases |
| full texts that were downloadable | full texts that failed to download |
| english peer-reviewed articles | articles written in other languages |
| journal articles on community participation in and governance of mpas | journal articles not related to community participation in mpas |
| articles focusing on community participation in mpas | articles with the wrong setting or focusing on community participation in terrestrial protected areas |
| articles from 2010–2025 | articles outside this timeframe |
| journal articles, book chapters, books | conference proceedings, systematic literature review papers, thesis, and perspectives |
| empirical studies | -duplicates -theoretical papers on community participation in and governance of mpas -articles with wrong outcomes -systematic review paper |
the grounds for the inclusion and exclusion of articles.
2.3 data analysis
a total of 68 articles were extracted from covidence software and uploaded into atlas.Ti 25 software for analysis. Segments of interest (quotations) were created from the articles, and each segment was coded. Coding of the segments of interest was done manually. The quotations and codes were generated concurrently. A quotation is a selected segment of the source data (text, audio, image, video, or pdf) that is marked because it is meaningful for your analysis, whilst a code is a label that is applied to one or more quotations to represent an idea (). The study employed both deductive and inductive coding across the 68 articles. Codes that emerged from the data were guided by the objectives and dimensions of the spaf (table 2). The authors first discussed how deductive coding would be conducted based on the spaf dimensions (figure 1). As deductive coding was conducted, the authors also agreed to conduct inductive coding, especially for ideas emerging in the literature but not part of the spaf framework. After individual coding, the authors refined and harmonized the codes, producing code groups that led to the main themes of this study (table 2).
table 2
| study objective | descriptive codes extracted from studies | code groups/categories | final theme | example of a sentence related to this code |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| identify reasons for public participation in mpa processes | compliance, awareness creation, co-management, empowerment, conservation goals, knowledge exchange | management motivations; ethical motivations; social learning motivations | reasons and conceptual rationales for adopting public participation | “community participation was encouraged to improve compliance and strengthen conservation outcomes within the mpa.” |
| examine the participatory methods used | public hearings, workshops, advisory groups, citizen science, mapping exercises, written submissions | information-sharing methods; consultation methods; collaborative methods; empowerment methods | participatory methods adopted | “stakeholders participated through workshops, advisory meetings, and citizen science initiatives.” |
| evaluate levels of public participation and influence across reviewed mpas | informing communities, consultation, involvement in monitoring, collaboration in decision-making, delegated authority | information; consultation; involvement; collaboration; empowerment | level of participation | “local communities were involved in monitoring activities but had limited influence on final management decisions.” |
| examine factors/challenges affecting community participation | exclusion from planning, weak legislation, political interference, limited representation, lack of funding | challenges affecting participation | challenges affecting participation | “limited funding and weak institutional support constrained meaningful community participation in mpa governance.” |
coding framework used to synthesize findings from 68 reviewed studies.
to analyse the conceptual rationales, or theoretical lenses, for adopting and explaining stakeholder participation, the study employed an inductive thematic analysis of the reviewed literature. Reported motivations for participation were systematically coded and grouped into broader conceptual categories based on recurring patterns and meanings emerging from the data. Through this process, three dominant perspectives were identified: management, ethical, and social learning. Code-document and co-occurrence analyses were conducted to better understand the relationships among emerging issues affecting community participation in mpas. To examine the degree of stakeholder participation and the level of stakeholder influence, this study adopted the public participation framework (figure 2) proposed by ) and the queensland government (2014). It provides a clear and widely recognized continuum of participation ranging from one-way information sharing to stakeholder empowerment.
figure 2
the framework was selected because it enables systematic assessment of the depth of stakeholder engagement and the level of influence stakeholders have in mpa governance processes. During data analysis, the term “community” was treated as a general category only when studies referred collectively to community members without specifying stakeholder subgroups. Where studies specifically identified groups such as artisanal fishers, recreational fishers, women, or tourism operators, these were coded separately to minimize double-counting. Each stakeholder category was therefore counted once per study based on the terminology and distinctions used in the reviewed literature.
figure 3 shows the results from every stage of the search and screening of the articles abstracts and full-text articles.
figure 3
3 results
3.1 why is stakeholder participation promoted in mpa governance processes?
in this study, governance refers to institutional arrangements, decision-making processes, and stakeholder interactions that shape how mpas are conceptualized, designed, created, and managed, including issues of participation and enforcement. Table 3 shows the reasons why mpa authorities adopt public participation. It also presents different conceptual rationales, or theoretical lenses, for adopting and explaining stakeholder participation in mpa governance. These diverse set of motivations can broadly be grouped into management, ethical, and social learning perspectives. The ethical perspective is based on normative principles such as fairness, rights, equity, and inclusion. Ethical motivations emerged as the most dominant perspective overall as participation was promoted to capture local views, traditions, and indigenous knowledge, foster ownership of mpas, empower local people through recognition of their rights, minimize negative impacts on livelihoods and economic activities, and encourage co-management arrangements. The management perspective views stakeholder participation as a tool to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of mpa management. Management-oriented motivations were strongly associated with improving the effectiveness of conservation and governance processes. Frequently cited reasons included helping enforce mpa regulations, increasing awareness and positive attitudes toward mpas, gathering information for management purposes, informing stakeholders, and enabling the state to achieve conservation objectives. Public participation in mpa governance processes is not just for ethical reasons, but also to comply with legal requirements. The social learning perspective sees participation as a process of knowledge exchange, learning, and mutual understanding among stakeholders. The social learning perspective highlighted the need to promote participation in knowledge exchange, collective learning, and capacity development. Stakeholder participation was linked to strengthening local capacities, increasing involvement in scientific projects, creating opportunities for shared learning, and supporting livelihood and employment opportunities connected to mpas.
table 3
| why was public participation adopted? | Management perspective | ethical perspective | social learning perspective | number of mpas | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| helps in enforcing mpa laws | 4 | ; ; ; | |||
| attitude change & awareness on mpa goals | 7 | ; ; ; | |||
| allow exchange of information | 2 | ; | |||
| building rapport with local resource users | 2 | ;
|
voyer et al., 2011;thurlow and jones, 2021;voyer et al., 2011; ;velez et al., 2014taylor et al., 2013;reasons and conceptual rationales for adopting public participation.
note: cells with a grey background indicate that the rationale aligns with the respective conceptual perspective (management, ethical, or social learning) identified in the reviewed studies.
the sian kaan biosphere reserve demonstrated one of the broadest motivations for stakeholder participation, adopting five key rationales for public engagement in mpa governance processes. These include building rapport with local fishers and resource users, fostering community ownership of the mpa, involving communities in co-management arrangements, resolving conflicts and misunderstandings, and supporting the achievement of conservation objectives. Similarly, the banco chinchorro biosphere reserve adopted four major motivations for public participation in mpa governance. Public engagement was promoted to build rapport with local fishers and resource users, foster local ownership of the mpa, involve communities in co-management processes, and support the achievement of conservation objectives. The california mpas also reflected multiple motivations for stakeholder participation, adopting four key rationales for engagement. Participation was encouraged to gather data for management purposes, give back to fishery resources, support participation in scientific projects, and promote attitude change and awareness regarding mpa goals. Likewise, the qimei fisheries conservation zone adopted four motivations for stakeholder engagement in mpa processes. Participation was promoted to build local capacity, support enforcement and compliance with mpa regulations, gather management-related data, and facilitate participation in scientific projects. However, there is relatively limited emphasis on conflict resolution and livelihood enhancement, participation in scientific projects, and capacity building, suggesting that participatory governance in many mpas may still be more consultative than genuinely collaborative or knowledge co-production.
3.2 who was involved in mpa governance processes?
figure 4 shows some of the targets for public participation set by mpa authorities across different marine parks, and the results indicate that stakeholder participation in mpa processes is heavily concentrated among groups directly dependent on marine and coastal resources. The community emerged as the most engaged group, as noted in 36 reviewed articles. Many studies treated the “community” as a homogeneous category without clearly distinguishing the different stakeholder groups within it. Again, stakeholder engagement appears to be centered on actors with recognized economic or subsistence relationships to marine resources. Fishers/anglers rank second, in 34 reviewed articles, though artisanal fishers were more dominant, followed by recreational fishers. Although fishers are often part of the broader community, stakeholder categories were coded according to how they were explicitly identified and differentiated in the original studies. Figure 4 further shows a comparatively narrow diversity of participants involved in mpa processes. While some socially differentiated groups were included, participation remains uneven across stakeholder categories. Other groups were mentioned in 11 or fewer reviewed articles, indicating a lack of the “difference approach” in public participation, whereby diverse stakeholder identities, interests, and vulnerabilities are explicitly recognized and accommodated within mpa participatory processes. Only one reviewed article reported youth participation in marine park processes, while women were similarly represented in only one study. There is limited inclusion of women and youths despite the growing global emphasis on inclusive and equitable governance. The findings also show a low representation of small-scale business operators and secondary value-chain actors such as fish processors, brokers, and traders, despite their dependence on marine resources for income generation.
figure 4
3.3 when are communities involved in public participation?
mpa governance processes encompass various stages, including conception and planning, park designation and establishment, park operations and administration (). Conception and planning cover problem identification, stakeholder consultation, and site identification. Designation and establishment combine the siting/designation of mpas, park creation, implementation, legal declaration, boundary demarcation, initial setup, and operationalization of the park. The last stage is park operations and administration. This combines park implementation, park operations/administration, day-to-day management and enforcement of park regulations, and ecological and socio-economic monitoring. Table 4 shows that stakeholder participation was incorporated across three stages of mpa governance processes, although the extent and consistency of engagement varied considerably between mpas. Communities are mainly engaged during park designation and establishment, and park implementation and management when support for enforcement and operational management is needed, rather than when fundamental decisions about conservation goals, boundaries, or governance systems are first established during the conception stage. Despite the widespread global advocacy for early stakeholder involvement, the study shows that relatively fewer mpas involved stakeholders during the conception and planning phases than during later stages of the mpa process. The findings also reveal considerable variation in the depth of participation across different mpas. Only the sian kaan biosphere reserve, done shwe than, haena community-based subsistence fishing area, pyin bu gyi, soufriere marine management area, minarzos marine reserve of fishing interest, min kaung se, and the banco chinchorro biosphere reserve, ye aye mpa, engaged communities in all three stages of the mpa processes.
table 4
| mpa/marine park | country | conception & planning | designation & establishment | operations & administration | references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 mpas | 6 eu countries | ||||
| avencas biophysical interest zone | portugal | ||||
| banco chinchorro biosphere reserve | mexican-carribean | ||||
| batemans | australia |
|
sayce et al., 2013voyer et al., 2011singer and jones, 2018voyer et al., 2011velez et al., 2014thiao et al., 2019thiao et al., 2019thiha et al., 2023thiha et al., 2023thiha et al., 2023thurlow and jones, 2021thiha et al., 2023rivera et al., 2024community engagement in the mpa governance stages.
note: grey shading indicates the presence of documented community engagement at the respective mpa governance stage as reported in the reviewed publication.
3.4 participatory methods used in mpa governance processes
table 5 presents the participatory methods used by various mpas across the 68 reviewed articles. These are strategies for involving communities in mpa governance processes, including park conception and planning, park designation and establishment, and park operations and administration. The findings suggest that public participation in mpa processes was dominated by conventional informative and consultative approaches rather than deeply collaborative or power-sharing mechanisms. Public hearings, community committees, advisory groups, workshops, and written public submissions emerged as among the most widely used methods across different mpas. Another key finding is that many mpas rely on committees, associations, and advisory groups, as these participatory methods recognize the importance of maintaining ongoing engagement platforms rather than depending solely on one-off participatory methods. The great barrier reef marine park in australia exemplifies an mpa committed to enhancing effective public participation through an exceptional range of participatory methods (10). Similarly, the california mpas in the usa follow suit with five participatory methods. Slightly above half of the mpas in table 5 used only one method to engage the public in mpa processes. Nine out of the 41 mpas adopted three participatory methods.
table 5
| parks | country | participation methods | references | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 mpas | 6 eu countries | 1. Public hearings | ||||
| avencas biophysical interest zone | portugal | 1. Public hearings 2. Written public submissions, 3. Community committees & advisory groups | ||||
| banco chinchorro biosphere reserve | mexican-caribbean | 1. Citizen science or biological monitoring 2. Capacity building activities 3. Workshops | ||||
| batemans marine park | australia | 1. Written public submissions 2. Public hearings |
|
semitiel-garcía and noguera-méndez, 20182. Field trips
3. Workshops
4. Written public submissions
5. Public hearings
6. Community committees & advisory groups
7. Free call number
8. Mapping exercises
9. Online news releases
10. Printed media awareness tools
11. Social media
12. Working group meetings
2. Community committees & advisory groups
sowman and sunde, 20182. Online advertisements
3. Newspaper articles
4. Community information sessions
5. Free- call number
6. Physical awareness campaigns
7. Written public submissions
8. Radio interviews
9. Brochures
10. Television announcements
voyer et al., 20112. Capacity building activities
sowman and sunde, 20182. Participation as workers 3. Community committees & advisory groups
sowman and sunde, 20182. Public hearings
singer and jones, 20182. Public hearings 3. Capacity building activities
richmond et al., 20192. Public hearings 3. Capacity building activities
2. Workshops
2. Public hearings
voyer et al., 20112. Community committees & advisory groups
2. Community committees & advisory groups 3. Capacity building activities
2. Written public submissions
3. Public hearings
2. Public hearings
schéré et al., 20232. Capacity building activities
3. Workshops
sowman and sunde, 2018sowman and sunde, 20182. Written public submissions 3. Public hearings
voyer et al., 20112. Public hearings
thiha et al., 20232. Iks considered
2. Workshops
2. Iks considered
3. Community committees & advisory groups
2. Public hearings
thiha et al., 20232. Community committees & advisory groups
2. Public hearings
3. Workshops
2. Public hearings
thiha et al., 2023taylor et al., 2013thurlow and jones, 20212. Public hearings
thiha et al., 2023participatory methods adopted by mpas.
public hearings, citizen science, biodiversity monitoring, and written public submissions (in that order) were the most popular methods for engaging communities. The findings also show a heavy reliance on knowledge-oriented and collaborative methods, particularly citizen science, biological monitoring, mapping exercises, and capacity-building activities. The use of mapping exercises, citizen science, and biodiversity monitoring to engage the public aims to build a new generation of “citizen scientists” from the communities. The results further show that some mpas, such as the great barrier reef marine park and the california mlpa, adopted highly diverse, multi-layered participation strategies that included both traditional face-to-face engagement and modern communication technologies. However, there is limited adoption of digital and online participation tools, as many mpas rely almost entirely on traditional engagement approaches. Mpas such as mimiwhangata marine reserve, portugal mpas, sian kaan biosphere reserve, savu sea national marine park, and banco chinchorro biosphere reserve adopted methods that promoted informative and collaborative participation. The use of iks remains relatively limited despite the increasing recognition of indigenous and local knowledge in conservation governance. Only three mpas were identified as integrating iks into mpa processes. Overall, public participatory methods being adopted strongly emphasized informative and consultative participation and limited emphasis on collaborative, empowerment-oriented, or stakeholder-led mpa governance.
figure 5 shows the popularity of public participatory methods across reviewed mpas. The results indicate that public participation in mpa governance relied more heavily on active participatory approaches than passive forms of engagement. An important study finding is the strong popularity of citizen science projects and biological monitoring activities in many mpas, indicating that communities are not merely seen as information recipients but also as important stakeholders in environmental monitoring and knowledge production. Nearly half of the participatory methods are passive, i.E., They involve communities receiving information from mpa authorities without the opportunity to provide their own inputs. The continued dominance of passive participation methods, such as written public submissions, brochures, media announcements, and public awareness campaigns, demonstrates that although participatory governance is evolving, many mpas still adopt public engagement to tick boxes rather than to empower the public.
figure 5
3.5 participatory methods and the degree of stakeholder influence
figure 6 shows the levels of public participation strategies across reviewed mpas, ranging from information (one-way engagement), consultation (limited two-way engagement), involvement (mutual exchange and learning, but the implementer retains control), collaboration (partnership in decision-making and actions), to empowerment (the public has final decision-making authority). Most mpas used informative methods (public hearings, radio interviews, briefings, printed or online media awareness tools) rather than empowerment-oriented methods (working group meetings, citizen science or biological monitoring, capacity-building activities). This is followed by consultative methods (community committees, public hearings, workshops) that promoted limited two-way engagement, as the mpa authorities could use or disregard the communitys input.
figure 6
the number of participatory methods used declines rapidly as one moves to strategies that promote higher levels of public engagement in mpas. Despite widespread global calls for collaborative, empowerment-oriented conservation projects, genuinely empowering methods of public participation have remained relatively limited. The level of public participation was also examined from the public and authors perspectives (figure 7). The findings further show that the highest number of publications reported that the public and authors found the participatory methods used by mpas to be highly informative (; ), consultative (; thiha et al., 2023) and zero publications mentioned the presence of empowerment in mpa governance processes. Two publications indicated that communities participated as workers () and in some voluntary activities within the mpas ().
figure 7
3.6 challenges affecting public participation in mpa governance processes
figure 8 shows that participation challenges occurred across all stages of the mpa governance process (conception and planning; park designation and establishment; and park operations and administration). The findings further reveal significant challenges related to the limited consideration of indigenous and local knowledge, limited participation in enforcement and protection of mpas, and limited participation in educational awareness initiatives within mpas. The studys findings indicate that participation limitations were most pronounced in operational activities and managerial aspects of mpas, leading to an imbalance between participatory rhetoric and communities actual participation in core mpa governance structures and processes.
figure 8
the results also reveal limited representation and inclusion of affected communities in mpa participation processes and in the integration of local knowledge into formal mpa decision-making. Figure 8 further shows that institutional and political barriers, such as weak legislative support, inadequate political commitment, limited funding for participatory mpa governance, and political interference, constitute significant constraints on stakeholder engagement.
4 discussion
this study examined community participation in mpa governance processes. The key finding of this study is that, while many mpas demonstrate varying motivations for engaging the public in mpa processes, the dominant drivers are ethical engagement, community input, and compliance with legal requirements. The first two drivers challenge the traditionally adopted, centralized, government-led, top-down approaches to community engagement, in which mpa authorities dominate decision-making processes with limited local input, often resulting in inadequate incorporation of local and context-specific knowledge and restricted community involvement across different phases of mpa governance (). Ethical engagement and the capture of local input foster a sense of ownership among communities, which can subsequently enhance the legitimacy of mpa management, provided that engagement is not superficial and is supported by genuine efforts to incorporate community perspectives into management. However, in many cases, community input is solicited primarily to fulfill procedural or legal requirements rather than to promote meaningful participation, causing such participatory processes to be perceived as box-checking exercises that do little to redistribute power and may even reinforce existing inequalities (). Fishers in the litoral norte mpa in portugal reported that they were not properly consulted before the areas designation and that the public hearings organized by mpa managers during implementation were largely symbolic, held only to meet formal requirements (rodrigues et al., 2024). While this study shows varied reasons for public engagement in mpa processes, especially ethical engagement drivers, their effectiveness should be critically evaluated. The purpose of public engagement should go beyond compliance and ethical engagement “tick boxes” to ensure that local voices are meaningfully incorporated into mpa processes, decisions, and policies rather than merely rubber-stamped and conforming to them. Researchers should continuously evaluate the engagement practices adopted to identify strengths, weaknesses, and areas for improvement in participatory models, thereby enhancing outcomes for both mpas and the communities that depend on or are affected by them.
this studys findings show that while communities are the most engaged group in mpa processes, they are treated as a homogeneous group because the “difference approach” to marine governance has not been adopted. It is important to avoid the assumption that a community functions as a uniform entity, as diverse interests often exist within it, influenced by variations in gender, ability, class, age, ethnicity, and economic status (). Engagement must ensure the representation of disadvantaged groups, and the process should not marginalize or discriminate against any demographic or societal segment (yet et al., 2022). Considering communities as a homogeneous group or singular entity can overlook the unique perspectives, interests, contributions, priorities, and needs of various demographics and groups, particularly marginalized groups in marine spaces, such as women, people with disabilities, and youth. Conservation typically involves individuals with different connections to the marine environment, necessitating the involvement of diverse groups with distinct interests, identities, varying degrees of agency, and influence over various aspects of the system (). Since the potential effects of mpas are not evenly distributed across society, it is crucial to fairly consider all perspectives, including those of minority groups, to ensure a socially just and equitable approach to establishing and managing mpas (voyer et al., 2011). Stakeholder categorization should be conducted through transparent and inclusive processes involving mpa managers, policymakers, and affected communities to ensure that diverse interests, knowledge systems, and power relations are adequately recognized, particularly given that participation opportunities and influence are not equally distributed among stakeholders (schéré et al., 2023). Recognizing and respecting individual rights is essential to good governance, and the lack of these rights can be concerning to many, particularly marginalized local groups whose voices are always disregarded. While various national policies and legal documents emphasize the importance of identifying and involving the public, these frameworks do not offer a practical framework for implementing this involvement (). Mpa authorities who are genuine about public participation should not rely on voluntary participation and self-selection but must adopt procedures that systematically seek to identify all demographics and sections of society, including the already marginalized (schwermer et al., 2020; yet et al., 2022). Mpa authorities should conduct stakeholder analysis using an intersectional approach that recognizes overlapping identities, interests, and vulnerabilities among stakeholders to ensure that participation processes are inclusive, representative, and equitable (). Following stakeholder identification, participatory processes should create inclusive deliberative platforms that bring diverse stakeholder groups together through dialogue, negotiation, and collaborative decision-making while ensuring that marginalized voices are not overshadowed by more powerful actors. However, sustaining stakeholder participation is difficult because people perceive the benefits of mpas differently (). The scholars further emphasize that, while including more groups can present additional challenges, excluding/missing certain stakeholders could lead to long-term problems. Therefore, it is crucial to strike a balance in the final subgroups of the community to ensure they are neither too few to overlook important members of society nor too many to complicate or delay the process.
communities are primarily engaged during mpa park designation and establishment processes, with comparatively less involvement during the initial park conception and planning, and park operations and administration stages, suggesting uneven participation across the mpa governance stages. Nine mpas involved communities across all stages of the mpa processes. These include the banco chinchorro biosphere reserve, sian kaan biosphere reserve, done shwe than, ha‘ena community-based subsistence fishing area, min kaung se, minarzos marine reserve of fishing interest, pyin bu gyi, soufriere marine management area, and ye aye. ) Support this, noting that many mpas do not meet their objectives because of the minimal emphasis placed on the limited involvement of fishers throughout various stages, from planning to management. Public engagement should not be a one-time event, but a continuous process if the communitys buy-in and cooperation are to be sustained. Stakeholders should be involved throughout the msp process, not just allowed to react to a finalized plan (). Edifying this observation, ) suggest that public participation should occur early, frequently, and consistently throughout the life cycle of marine spatial planning and mpa processes. A study by ) found that the lack of local involvement after the planning phase led to a loss of social capital built during that phase, and the public expressed a desire for their engagement to extend into the implementation phase of the marine conservation zones. The planning phase is essential for collaboratively establishing priorities and goals; the implementation phase focuses on executing the plan, while the post-implementation phase provides an opportunity to evaluate its successes (). This study findings further show that, while two mpas employ a variety of participatory methods, over half use only one method for public engagement. Considering the diverse actors and demographic groups in the marine space and their unique perspectives, interests, priorities, and needs, a “one size fits all” approach and a single model of community engagement in msp, including mpa processes, are not viable (). This complex system may require various innovative approaches to public engagement and to get a deeper understanding of the social components and interests of different demographics and sections of society (; ).
another key finding is that public hearings, citizen science (especially biodiversity monitoring), and written submissions, in that order, are the most popular methods for engaging communities in mpas. However, nearly half of the participatory methods used fall into the passive category, while the active methods adopted vary in the degree of community engagement. The prominence of the three participatory methods as popular ways to engage communities suggests recognition of the importance of capturing and incorporating community input throughout the mpa governance processes. However, if there is a preference for one method, potential challenges to community participation will emerge. Public meetings or hearings often become platforms where a vocal minority dominates the discussion, leading to frustration among both the community and the meeting organizers (). Using written submissions only may inadvertently favor those who are more literate or learned, thereby marginalizing less empowered and older community members. Public participation is critical but not adequate to achieve msp and mpa goals and objectives without the adoption of participatory methods that empower people with knowledge and skills in order to actively participate in msp and mpa processes (). Study findings further reveal that 13 mpas primarily use informative participatory methods, resulting in limited one-way engagement. This confirms findings by ) that, at higher levels of stakeholder participation, 55% of the fishers and divers disagreed that it existed. When communities are only informed, rather than actively involved in decision-making, it diminishes their buy-in, sense of ownership, and responsibility for mpa conservation efforts, which are critical to the long-term success of the mpas. Under these conditions, communities lack the power to ensure their views are heard by powerful actors, as restricted participation offers little follow-through or “muscle” to effect change in the status quo ().
the findings also show a rapid decline in the use of higher-order public participatory methods that foster collaboration and empower communities. However, twichell et al. (2018) state that processes that promote higher-quality participation have been demonstrated to lead to more effective environmental decision-making. ) Advocate for the use of participatory science methods that extend well beyond conventional techniques. These methods can actively involve communities, amplify local voices and expertise, enhance scientific learning through partnerships, and empower communities by delegating authority. Marine citizen science can equip communities with community-based monitoring and research skills to monitor mangroves, track marine pollution, conduct fisheries monitoring, and evaluate ecosystem health. The 68 reviewed articles in this study revealed that mpa governance processes are characterized by challenges such as limited community representation, limited incorporation of indigenous and local knowledge systems, restricted community involvement in enforcement and protection activities, and minimal participation in educational and awareness initiatives. These limitations weaken local ownership, trust, stewardship, and long-term compliance with mpa conservation objectives. However, the review also identified several examples of more inclusive and collaborative practices. Some mpas incorporated indigenous knowledge systems, citizen science, community advisory groups, working groups, co-management arrangements, and capacity-building initiatives to promote stronger stakeholder engagement and knowledge exchange. In a few cases, communities were involved across multiple stages of the mpa process, reflecting more sustained, collaborative governance. These examples demonstrate that while participation challenges remain widespread, emerging best practices can strengthen inclusivity, local ownership, and long-term conservation effectiveness.
5 conclusion and recommendations
this study examined communities participation in mpa governance processes and found that while the need for community input, buy-in, and legal compliance are the key drivers of public engagement, active participation remains limited. One challenge arises from viewing communities as homogeneous groups, despite their diverse interests and perspectives, influenced by factors such as ability, age, gender, ethnicity, and economic status. Genuine, long-term engagement is also affected by a fragmented approach to community engagement, which is often limited to specific stages of the mpa governance process. This approach treats community participation as an event rather than a process, resulting in limited, episodic, and long-term engagement in mpa governance and its goals. The study noted that many mpas rely on passive, participatory methods that reinforce existing inequalities between mpa authorities and communities, thereby disempowering them. Building on the findings of this study, mpa authorities should adopt collaborative, empowering participatory models that institutionalize co-management arrangements, with communities involved in decision-making, enforcement, and monitoring. Second, stakeholder engagement should be grounded in stakeholder analysis to identify the different groups within the community that depend on mpas, ensuring that the entire mpa governance process incorporates diverse local voices and knowledge, particularly those of marginalized groups (women, youth, and people with disabilities) and indigenous groups. This will ensure that participation is representative and equitable, rather than relying on voluntary participation and self-selection, which often excludes less visible groups. Public participation should employ a range of participatory methods tailored to different stakeholder groups and contexts and should be embedded across all stages of the mpa governance process. There is a need to strengthen capacity building through marine citizen science programs so that communities can acquire and transfer skills beyond mpa management, including biodiversity monitoring, fisheries assessments, and marine pollution tracking. Continuous engagement in all mpa processes should be adopted if mpa authorities are to go beyond promoting community buy-in but meet conservation targets. Finally, mpa authorities should therefore work with academia to develop, refine, and reform public engagement practices if conservation goals are to be met.
5.1 limitations of the study
the review was limited to english-language publications, potentially excluding relevant studies from non-english-speaking regions. Future reviews could address this limitation by incorporating multilingual searches and translation-assisted screening approaches.
statements
data availability statement
the original contributions presented in the study are included in the article/supplementary material, further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding author.
author contributions
gm: conceptualization, data curation, formal analysis, methodology, resources, software, visualization, writing – original draft. Gn: formal analysis, methodology, project administration, validation, visualization, writing – review & editing.
funding
the author(s) declared that financial support was not received for this work and/or its publication.
conflict of interest
the author(s) declared that this work was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.
generative ai statement
the author(s) declared that generative ai was not used in the creation of this manuscript.
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supplementary material
the supplementary material for this article can be found online at: https://www.Frontiersin.Org/articles/10.3389/focsu.2026.1808210/full#supplementary-material
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summary
keywords
community engagement, marine conservation, marine governance, marine parks, public participation, sdg14
citation
mutanda gw and nhamo g (2026) motivations for community participation in marine protected areas governance systems. Front. Ocean sustain. 4:1808210. Doi: 10.3389/focsu.2026.1808210
received
10 february 2026
revised
29 june 2026
accepted
02 july 2026
published
13 august 2026
volume
4 - 2026
edited by
natasa maria vaidianu, ovidius university, romania
reviewed by
constance m. Schéré, kings college london, united kingdom
valentina rossi, national research council italy, italy
updates
copyright
© 2026 mutanda and nhamo.
this is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the creative commons attribution license (cc by). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
*correspondence: gideon walter mutanda, mutangw@unisa.Ac.Za
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all claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher. |
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| Subsidiary but central: the role of standards and guidelines in regulating deep |
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Abstract
the un convention on the law of the sea (unclos) mandates the international seabed authority (isa) to develop measures, including “rules, regulations and procedures” (rrps), to govern deep seabed mining in areas beyond national jurisdiction. To this end, member states of the isa have focused much recent work and time on developing and negotiating the exploitation regulations. A lesser discussed aspect of the regulatory regime are the standards and guidelines (“s&g”). S&g are subsidiary instruments required to operationalize and elaborate on the exploitation regulations. S&g will be essential regulatory tools within the system of rrps that the isa needs to establish to regulate deep seabed mining. There has been recent focus on the state of readiness of the isa to regulate the emerging deep seabed mining industry. While this debate considers the status of the draft exploitation regulations, the status of the s&g is little discussed though their elaboration has barely begun. Since s&g are to be read in conjunction with the regulations—which are still under development, the exact number and topics of the s&g remain in flux. This leads to uncertainty around the scope of the work the isa needs to finalize before mining can be permitted. This paper examines how many s&g are currently needed within the regulatory framework, what kind of substantive guidance and obligations could be dependent on them, and provides a set of recommendations to progress this work further.
1 introduction
the international seabed authority (isa) is the intergovernmental body mandated under the united nations convention on the law of the sea (unclos) to regulate mineral-related activities in the international seabed area beyond national jurisdiction (“the area”). The area and its resources are “the common heritage of [hu]mankind.”1 the isa is responsible for ensuring that their exploration and exploitation are conducted for the benefit of all, which includes ensuring protection of the environment, and equitable access and benefit.2 central to this dual mandate is the development of a comprehensive legal and institutional framework. The isa is currently negotiating exploitation regulations, which are required for the first mining operations to be permitted.3
however, the exploitation regulations alone will not suffice to constitute the isas regulatory regime. The isas executive body, the council (comprising 36 elected member states), has decided that a suite of subsidiary instruments—referred to as standards and guidelines (s&g)4 —is required to give technical and procedural detail to the regulations. These instruments are expected to address a wide array of complex issues, from baseline environmental data collection and impact assessment methodologies to monitoring protocols, compliance mechanisms, and contractor performance benchmarks. Despite their critical role, most of the s&gs remain under development.
the isa faces intensifying scrutiny and time pressure in its rule-making processes. At the same time, there has been increased geopolitical and economic interest in deep seabed minerals, intensifying the debate over their need in the green energy transition, digital innovations, and national security. In this context the isa faces increased demand for regulatory clarity by different stakeholders.5 pressure on the isa has been compounded by the united states—a non-party to unclos—asserting its right to unilaterally mine the area under its domestic legislation, and fast tracking domestic permitting of deep seabed mining applications.6 at the time of writing, five applications for exploration and exploitation licenses have been progressed for public consultation.7 some actors have linked the need for speedy adoption of the isa regulatory framework to the us licensing process.8 together, these dynamics place the isa in a precarious position: tasked with finalizing complex regulatory instruments under accelerated timelines, while maintaining legitimacy, environmental integrity, and equity in the face of mounting political and commercial pressures.
against this backdrop, this paper examines the role and status of the s&g, arguing that the scale and complexity of the s&g agenda demand prioritization if the isa is to fulfill its mandate and respond to international pressure credibly and coherently.
2 what are s&g?
the legal underpinning for s&g is derived from unclos and the 1994 agreement, e.G.:
article 145 unclos, which requires the isa to take necessary measures (including rrps) to ensure effective protection for the marine environment from harmful effects which may arise from activities in the area;
annex iii, article 17 (1)(b) (xii), which requires the isa to adopt and apply rrps on “mining standards and practices, including those relating to operational safety, conservation of the resources and the protection of the marine environment”; and
annex to the 1994 agreement, section 1 (5)(g) which requires the isa to “concentrate on adoption of rules, regulations and procedures incorporating applicable standards for the protection and preservation of the marine environment.”
isa regulations are the primary instrument designed to meet these unclos rule-making obligations. But due to the range and complexity of topics that must be covered, the isas council has decided in the course of its negotiation of the draft exploitation regulations that these will need accompaniment by legally binding standards, and recommendatory guidelines, that can cover procedural or operational detail.9
the draft negotiating text for the exploitation regulations indicates that standards will be:
recommended to the council for adoption by the ltc (after a public consultation),
regularly reviewed and updated,
legally binding,
a fundamental term of contracts, such that compliance with standards is mandatory and (non-compliance can trigger certain penalties pursuant to annex iii article 18 unclos),
aimed toward an “outcomes-based approach,” where feasible (i.E., Focused on desired results rather than prescribing specific processes or systems), and
designed to describe how “the authority and contractors shall implement the regulations.”
10
guidelines are referred to within the draft regulations as “administrative” in nature and aimed to assist implementation of the regulations. Guidelines can be issued by the councils subsidiary organ the legal and technical commission (ltc) or by the isas administrative organ the secretariat. Guidelines will be non-binding and recommendatory. Some aspects of guidelines remain unsettled. For example, some member states propose that contractors should be expected to observe all guidelines to the “furthest extent possible,” which is similar to the approach taken with another type of instrument called the “ltc recommendations for the guidance of contractors.” Another proposal is that exploitation contractors could be required by the regulations to explain any divergences from the guidelines. This would serve both to give the isa notice of possible performance issues, but also to identify when contractors consider the guidelines to be out of date or in need of improvement.11
from the above we can draw out that s&g will assist in the implementation of the regulations in different ways—(1) by providing additional detail on an aspects covered within the regulations that would be too lengthy or prescriptive within the regulations themselves; (2) providing an avenue to add new areas not covered by the regulations but where regulatory clarity is needed; and crucially (3) affording a streamlined process and flexibility for amendments over time, as new learning and information comes to light, which would be overly burdensome to rectify by revision of the regulations themselves. From this it is clear that the regulations and the s&g are inherently intertwined.12 such interdependence implies that agreement by the council on the s&g must occur before or in parallel with the regulations to assure states that the framework sufficiently addresses all necessary elements.13
3 history of s&g development at the isa
the journey undertaken by the isa to reach these apparent points of agreement about s&g is worth noting.14 in march 2019, the ltc presented the council with draft exploitation regulations [isba/25/c/wp.1], which included references to isas&g.15 during the 25th session of the isa in 2019, the council directed the ltc to examine the issue of s&g.16 in order to assist with that work, the ltc convened a multi-stakeholder workshop in may 2019 held in pretoria, south africa. The workshop participants were provided various technical inputs envisioning the role of s&g in the isas regulatory regime, prepared by the isa secretariat.17
it is notable that at this stage the role and nature of s&g was open to interpretation. From the background documents it is evident that some conceived s&g to be isa instruments that would cross-refer to external standards, e.G., Standards set by other international organizations such as the international maritime organization, or by industry-led processes such as are prevalent in better established extractive industries, or by standardization body processes that can be cross-sectoral—such as the iso.18 but during the workshop and over time since, the concept of the role and substance of isa s&g evolved.
the outcomes of the 2019 pretoria workshop formed the basis and the framework for much of the discussion that continues today around the s&g.19 workshop outcomes that appear to have been taken forward by the council subsequently included proposals that—
isa standards are part of the rrps and are binding on member states, contractors and the authority;
isa “guidelines” identify a recommended path for implementing the rrps. They do not require approval of the council but must be reported to council, which may request that the guideline be modified or withdrawn;
a three phased approach to s&g development;
an outcomes-based approach;
identification of 16 specific s&g under phase 1, i.E., Those to be developed prior to regulations being adopted;
a recommended approach for the development of the process for adoption of s&g, including the role of the ltc, council, assembly and the incorporation of stakeholder comments.
drafts of 10 s&g under phase 1, based on the 2019 pretoria workshop outcomes (rather than any direction from the council), were prepared by the ltc in 2020–2021, and released to the council for its comment and review in 2022.
the procedure for development of the drafts of s&g was queried by some delegates during the subsequent council session. It appears that in some instances the ltc utilized external consultants for the preparation of “zero drafts,”20 and in other instances drafts were prepared by committees of external volunteers. Delegates raised concerns about the lack of information provided about the selection process or identity of those external persons.21 potential inconsistency and procedural integrity of an ad hoc approach had actually been pre-empted as an issue during the 2019 pretoria workshop, as well as during a 2017 workshop in berlin where a working group had recommended that the “authority develop a manual” or “handbook” for an s&g development procedure (). “The pretoria workshop report repeated this proposal, noting that a written procedure for s&g development could incorporate guiding principles including inclusiveness, transparency, effectiveness, relevance and continuous improvement.”22 no such procedure was subsequently developed.
the first tranche of 10 “phase 1” s&g was opened for consultation by the ltc in 2020 and 2021. The ltc received 360 submissions from 32 countries, 1 regional group, eight observers, 13 contractors, and 11 other stakeholder entities.23 the comments were substantial and contained many suggestions for amendment to the drafts released by the ltc. The ltc released a revised set of the 10 s&g for the isas 27th session in 2022. Member state interventions during that session recorded disappointment at the lack of substantive revisions made by the ltc in response to the consultation feedback (see text footnote 21). In light of the overwhelming number of submissions received, and the concurrent development of regulations causing duplicative and sometimes contradictory work on the s&g, the council decided to pause work on the s&g until the regulations are more stabilized.24 the council stated that “the phase 1 draft standards and guidelines require in-depth consideration by the council, as well as review, to ensure consistency with the draft regulations.”25
since the revised s&g were produced by the ltc in 2022, the draft text of the exploitation regulations has undergone significant changes. In 2024–2025 two consolidated texts were released by the council president and a further revised consolidated text was issued in june 2026.26 a notable trend in these more recent texts has been to remove certain provisions from the regulations, for them instead to be placed within proposed s&g.27
the 30th session of the council in 2025 returned to the development of s&g, this time as an independent agenda item. During verbal interventions, the importance of s&gs within the regulatory framework was reaffirmed, with particular emphasis on the involvement of both the council and the ltc in their formulation. A request was made to the secretariat to maintain an updated “living document” listing all s&gs referenced in the regulations.28 while most countries supported addressing s&gs concurrently with the regulations, one state delegation (china) suggested prioritizing the regulations in the near term, and considering only those standards that are essential for application preparation and development as part of “phase 1” (see text footnote 21).
the allocation in 2025 by the council of the s&gs as a standalone agenda item seemed to indicate renewed emphasis on the importance of these instruments. However, final decisions adopted by the council in that 30th session did not specify how s&gs should be progressed. The most pertinent decision of the isa council from july 2025, regarding future work on the regulations (isba/30/c/18), simply requests that the secretariat prepare a draft indicative list of outstanding issues based on the discussions held by the council during that session. This seems likely to include the s&gs, though they are not explicitly mentioned in that decision, nor in any of the 30th sessions outcome documents.
two key take-aways from the above examination of the history of s&g development at the isa are as follows:
whilst council members have consistently emphasized that s&g are an essential component of the regulatory framework, it is notable from tracking the evolution of the s&g concept that the council has never formally adopted any decision regarding their scope or legal standing. The 2019 ltc report that summarized the outcomes of the pretoria workshop has often been cited as evidence of the councils intent, and used in lieu of a formal council decision.
29but the notional procedure and underpinning principles for s&g in fact evolved from a combination of isa secretariat papers, the 2019 pretoria workshop, and the ltcs report to council of the workshop outcomes. Council leadership in relation to s&g could avoid leaving the process vulnerable to ad hoc approaches, inconsistent drafting practices and uncertainty about institutional roles.The status of s&g development is that the isa has 10 now-outdated draft s&g documents. These were noted by council as unsatisfactory in substance. They were produced in 2020–2022, were never finalized, and are now substantially out-of-step with the latest iteration of the regulations. The learning here may be that the development of s&g requires meaningful consultation, is resource-intensive, and cannot be done in isolation from the regulations.
3.1 the phased approach to s&g development
the ltcs 2019 report, based on the pretoria workshop paper, proposed three phases in which s&g should be developed—
phase 1: s&g deemed necessary to be in place by the time of adoption of the draft exploitation regulations,
phase 2: s&g deemed necessary to be in place before the receipt by the isa of the first application for a plan of work for exploitation, and
phase 3: s&g deemed necessary to be in place before commercial mining activities commence in the area (which can be interpreted as being the trigger point known as “commercial production,” which takes place when a contractor reaches an agreed quantitative threshold of mineral extraction, after the award of an exploitation contract).
in june 2021, the republic of nauru triggered the so-called “2-year rule” under section 1, paragraph 15 of the 1994 agreement relating to the implementation of part xi of unclos. This provision allows a sponsoring state of an isa contract to request that the isa complete the adoption of regulations necessary for exploitation within 2 years, after which the isa must consider an application for a plan of work even if the regulations remain incomplete. Naurus invocation, made on behalf of its sponsored contractor, nauru ocean resources inc. (A subsidiary of the metals company), set a july 2023 deadline for the isa to finalize the exploitation regulations.30 this not only creates a political inflection point for the isa, but also effectively collapses the isas proposed three-phase approach to s&g. The original sequencing presumed a gradual build-up of subsidiary instruments aligned with regulatory milestones: adoption of the exploitation regulations, receipt of the first application, and commencement of mining. However, with the application window now open, the distinction between phases 1 and 2 has been overtaken by events—and phase 2 could now pre-date phase 1. Phase 3 may follow rapidly if an application is approved. Thus, the majority of the s&g need be adopted contemporaneously with each other (and with the regulations; phase 1). If there are matters that could be deferred to a time period between the adoption of the regulations and the commencement of commercial production by a contractor, these can be placed in a subsequent phase 2. However, comprehensive regulatory certainty is likely required for both the isa and investors to assess the viability of an exploitation contract.
4 scope of the analysis
the evolving draft exploitation regulations text contains a proliferation of references to s&g. This reflects two approaches taken by the council in its recent negotiations: (1) an exercise in streamlining what has become a lengthy text (300+ pages), seeking to move extraneous detail out of the regulations and into the s&g; and (2) a tendency to relegate contentious or complicated areas of the regulations to the s&g, deferring discussions to a future time. Recent examples of this can be seen in relation to thematic topics like monopolization, equalization in the payment regime for contractors, and effective control of contractors by the sponsoring state. The proposals for the draft regulations as of june 2026, are to refer to these concepts briefly in the regulations, and to set the relevant detailed binding definitions and rules via standards.31
in march 2025, the secretariat published a draft list of 42 s&gs referenced in the 2025 draft text. During the subsequent council session, some council delegates queried whether that was a comprehensive list (see text footnote 21). We therefore undertook our own review of the june 2026 draft regulations to identify every explicit reference to a standard or guideline that the regulations assume will be developed. Where multiple provisions refer to the same subsidiary instrument, we have treated them as a single s&g. Conversely, where a single provision contemplates s&gs being developed for different issue areas, these have been recorded separately. Inevitably, some references require subjective interpretation of whether they are envisaged as a standalone instrument or can be assumed to be part of a broader s&g. The figures presented should therefore be understood as the minimum number of subsidiary instruments currently referenced.
to assist analysis, each identified s&g was assigned a category based on its functional regulatory purpose. During the categorization, five broad categories emerged—environmental protection, financial matters, procedural clarity, operational issues and institutional arrangements. Some s&g inevitably overlap various categories but have been assigned a category closest to its primary purpose.
table 1 lists the 58 standards and guidelines referenced in the 2026 draft text. These comprise 14 s&g on environmental matters, nine on financial terms of the contract, nine on institutional matters, 16 on operational aspects and 10 on procedural issues. Environmental matters are coded in green, financial matters in blue, institutional matters in pink, operational issues in orange and procedural issues in gray. The distribution demonstrates that s&g will be required across the spectrum of the regulatory regime. Asterisks denote that there is a draft s&g document developed by the ltc on this topic in 2020–2022, which could form a useful basis for developing the required s&gs though would need updating.32
table 1
| no. | Name of standard/guideline | type | category | draft regulations (dr) on exploitation of mineral resources in the area (isba/30/c/crp.1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Development and application of environmental management systems | standard | environmental | drs 49bis, 50, annex viiter |
| 2. | Establishment of baseline environmental data | guidelines (and/or standard) | environmental | drs 13 and 46 |
| 3. | Environmental impact assessments | standard | environmental | drs 46, 47, 47bis, 48, 48 bis; annex iiibis and annex iv |
| 4. | Preparation of an environmental impact statement | guideline (and/or standard) | environmental | dr 48 and annex iv; annex x in the revised suspense document |
| 5. | Preparation of an environmental management and monitoring plan | standard | environmental | dr50 |
| 6. | Development and implementation of environmental threshold values and indicators | standard | environmental | drs 44ter, 48bis, 49, 50, annex vii |
| 7. | Serious harm | standard (and/or guideline) | environmental | cross cutting issue on the interpretation of serious harm, e.G., Drs 2, 44, 45, 46, 48bis, 50, schedule |
| 8. | Preparation and implementation of emergency response and contingency plans | standard | environmental | drs 32, 33, annex v |
| 9. | Mining discharges | standard | environmental | drs53, 53bis |
| 10. | Closure plans and post closure monitoring | standard | environmental | drs 50, 51bis, 52bis, 52ter,annex viii |
| 11. | Assessment of uncertainty | standard | environmental | annex iv |
| 12. | Design criteria for impact reference zones (irzs) and preservation reference zones (przs) | standard | environmental | annex x bis |
| 13. | Preparation of a scoping report | standard | environmental | dr 47bis, annex iii biss |
| 14. | Environmental monitoring, reporting and performance assessment | standard and guideline | environmental | drs 50, 52bis, 52ter |
| 15. | Form and calculation of an environmental performance guarantee | standard | financial | dr 26 |
| 16. | Transfer of rights and transfer profit share | standard | financial | drs 23, 65 |
| 17. | Insurance | standard (and/or guideline) | financial | dr 36 |
| 18. | Incentives | standard and/or guideline | financial | dr 63 |
| 19. | Determination of royalty payments | standard | financial | drs 64, 64bis, 64ter, 64quat |
| 20. | Equalization measure | standard | financial | dr 64bis |
| 21. | Royalty returns, payment of royalties and interests on unpaid royalties | standard (and/or guideline) | financial | drs 66, 70, 71, 73bis, 79 |
| 22. | Review of system of payments and rates of payment | standard | financial | dr 81 and 82 |
| 23. | Financial terms of a contract | standard and/or guideline | financial | annex iii, annex ix |
| 24. | Environmental compensation fund | standard | institutional | drs 54, 55, 56 |
| 25. | Audit by the authority | standard (and/or guideline) | institutional | drs 75, 76 |
| 26. | Beneficial ownership registry | standard (and/or guideline) | institutional | dr 83bis |
| 27. | Handling of data and confidential information | standard and/or guideline | institutional | dr 89–92bis |
| 28. | Inspectors—appointments and powers | standard (and/or guideline) | institutional | drs 96, 96bis, 96ter, 97, 99 |
| 29. | Inspection reports | standard (and/or guideline) | institutional | dr 100 |
| 30. | Compliance committee/institutional mechanism for inspections, compliance and enforcement | standard | institutional | drs 95bis, 103, 103quat, 105bis |
| 31. | Independent experts | standard and/or guideline | institutional | cross cutting issue |
| 32. | Seabed mining register | standard and/or guideline | institutional | drs 83, 92 |
| 33. | Tools and techniques for hazard identification and risk assessment | guideline (and/or standard) | operational | dr 29quin |
| 34. | Safe management and operation of mining vessels and installations | standard | operational | drs 29 quat, 29quin, 30, 30bis, 32, 37, 48ter and 53ter, annex ii, annex vi |
| 35. | Preparation and implementation of emergency response and contingency plans | standard | operational | dr 32, 33, annex v |
| 36. | Safety, labor and health | standard | operational | dr 30 |
| 37. | Handling of discovery of underwater cultural heritage | standard (and/or guideline) | operational | dr 35 |
| 38. | Test mining and pilot mining | standard | operational | dr 48ter |
| 39. | Electronic monitoring | standard | operational | dr 29 quat |
| 40. | Maritime security plan | standard and/or guideline | operational | annex vi |
| 41. | Undertaking of joint arrangements with the enterprise | standard | operational | dr 19 |
| 42. | Feasibility study | standard (and/or guideline) | operational | dr 25 |
| 43. | Commercial production | standard | operational | drs 25, 27, 29 |
| 44. | Reduction or suspension in production | standard (and/or guideline) | operational | drs 29, 29bis |
| 45. | Training plans and obligations | standard (and/or guideline) | operational | dr 37 |
| 46. | Transfer of technology | standard (and/or guideline) | operational | dr 37bis |
| 47. | Mining work plan | standard | operational | annex ii |
| 48. | Submarine cable and pipeline protection | standards and/or guideline | operational | dr 31bis |
| 49. | Monopolization/anti monopoly assessment | standard | procedural | dr 13 |
| 50. | Material change | standard | procedural | dr 57 |
| 51. | Suspension and termination of a contract | standard | procedural | dr 103 |
| 52. | Preparation and assessment of an application for the approval of a plan of work for exploitation | guideline (and/or standard) | procedural | dr 5, 7, 11, 13, 15, 20, 25, 31, 31bis, 37bis, 41, 57, 58, 59, annex i (section iv), annex x bis |
| 53. | Qualified applicants | standard | procedural | drs 5, 13 |
| 54. | Application and assessment for use of an exploitation contract as security | standard | procedural | dr 22 |
| 55. | Certificate of origin | standard | procedural | dr 29ter |
| 56. | Annual reporting | standard | procedural | dr 38 |
| 57. | Requirements for keeping books, records and samples | standard | procedural | dr 39 |
| 58. | Consultations | standard | procedural | dr 93bis, 93ter |
lists the s&gs referenced in the frct.
5 what will standards include?
as noted above, the isa s&g are envisioned to provide regulatory clarity and detail to assist implementation of unclos and the regulations. As such, s&g play an increasingly crucial role within the composite regulatory regime for governance of deep seabed mining in the area, alongside the exploitation regulations themselves. The latest draft regulations text envisages that standards in particular will answer fundamental questions relating to, e.G., Assessment of exploitation applications, delineation of environmental obligations, clarification of the financial regime for exploitation, and institutional workings of the isa. The following are five examples of standards—one from each category—that illustrate the significance of these subsidiary instruments.
5.1 development and implementation of environmental threshold values and indicators [environmental]
the draft exploitation regulations refer to different gradations of decisions for varied thresholds of environmental harm. These terms include “serious harm,” “harmful effects,” and “effective protection.” The regulation-by-regulation negotiations over preceding years have indicated some confusion or disagreement between member states as to use of these respective terms and how thresholds will be set. The council has also yet to discuss in any length or detail the definition or criteria for each of these terms, or to tie them in with specific and measurable thresholds—which are to be contained in standards [as referenced in, e.G., Draft regulations 13(9), 38(2), 45(2), 48bis (2), etc.].
since 2022, the council tasked the ltc via expert working groups to establish such thresholds.33 the working groups are composed of scientific specialists, with each working group examining different impacts of mining impacts, including toxicity, noise and light pollution, turbidity and sediment resettlement. Preliminary outputs from these groups underscore two critical impediments to progress. First, there is a persistent lack of empirical data, e.G., Regarding baseline conditions and resilience, which precludes informed quantification of thresholds. Second, the absence of clear policy guidance from the isa has left technical experts without a normative framework to determine how thresholds should be defined, applied, or interpreted within the broader regulatory regime (). The council have also clarified that in addition to the initial working groups, there will need to be additional topics and groups, e.G., On habitat removal (). As such, progress on these thresholds at the crux of the isas regime could be described as nascent but impeded.
clarity on these issues is key, because one of the foremost policy decisions to be made through the exploitation regulations is the levels of environmental harm that can or cannot be permitted during exploitation of the area. Agreement on this fundamental question by the council has been deferred through its relegation to s&g development.
5.2 insurance [financial]
the president of the council noted in the regulations negotiating text that “several delegations have suggested that the details of insurance coverage should be set out in a standard. Many delegations have also emphasized the need for a detailed analysis and discussion of the liability regime, including insurance… it has been suggested that the specific requirements for coverage be addressed in a standard.”34 the negotiations thus far suggest that insurance will be relied upon by the isa as a crucial part of the liability and compensation scheme for harm arising from exploitation in the area (). Open questions remains as to, for example: what type of insurance (would self-insurance be permitted?), What it would cover (general liability, environmental impairment liability, protection and indemnity for vessels and/or machinery, employers liability, business interruption and emergency response?), And what liability caps may be permitted (). In the past, council members requested the ltc and the secretariat to provide more technical inputs on the issue of availability and types of insurance, and the role it can or should play in the isa regulatory regime. The isa secretariat advertised for a consultant to draft a standard on insurance obligations in 202235; but, there has been no update on this since. The insurance requirements the isa chooses may not be currently available on the market, and where offered may require high up-front expenditure. So the standard on insurance has implications as to whether or not exploitation in the area is viable, as well as whether third parties at risk of harm from the activities can access appropriate protection. It is therefore another decisive element of the finalized regime deferred to the standards [see, e.G., Draft regulations 13(3) and 36 in the further revised consolidated text. Rev 3 of june 2026].
5.3 test mining and pilot mining [operational]
the isas exploration regulations contemplate that contractors may test mining equipment and collection systems before proceeding to commercial recovery or full-scale mining. While test mining has already been conducted by a few isa exploration contractors, the exploration regime in relation to test mining is recommendatory in nature and not legally binding (both as to whether or not test mining takes place at all, and as to specific procedures to follow in planning and carrying out such tests). The negotiations on the exploitation regulations have identified a need for member states collectively to clarify and harmonize within the regulatory framework various aspects of test mining under an exploration contract. A new regulatory step has also been proposed, called “pilot mining,” that would take place subsequent to test-mining, under an exploitation contract prior to commencement of commercial production. This premise has given rise to questions regarding: the precise definition of a test mine or a pilot mine, when and at what scale such tests or pilots would be required and whether there may be exemptions, the procedure around the carrying out of such tests or pilots including isa authorization to proceed with a test or pilot mine, and how the outcomes of these test or pilot should inform isa decision-making. An isa council working group is working toward solutions to these questions.36 many of the details will likely be covered by standards. Test mining and pilot mining will provide crucial empirical information to verify operational capabilities and environmental predictions. As such, detailed requirements for test mining and pilot mining is a pivotal element of the isas regulatory regime, whose substance awaits articulation through the standards.
5.4 stakeholder participation [procedural]
as an institution seeking to represent humankind as a whole, the importance of the isas approach to consultation and participation in its decision-making cannot be overstated (). At different points in the isas recent history, the topic of stakeholder participation in isa decision-making has been the subject of (i) a draft but never completed isa institutional policy,37 (ii) intersessional work to streamline stakeholder consultation provisions within the draft exploitation regulations,38 and (iii) disparate discussions during council sessions in negotiating the text of specific regulations that refer to stakeholders. None of these has led to a formal or final set of rules to govern the isas interaction with its stakeholders. Currently, the isas approach relies on evolving practice rather than established rule, which some stakeholders have noted lacks sufficient transparency.39
the 2026 draft regulations text has a provision standardizing the stakeholder consultation requirements of a contractor, but no provisions setting out the isas own consultation obligations. Isa stakeholders are left with little guidance or rights at the isa relating to public participation, including aspects such as access to information, timelines or modalities for engagement, identification of stakeholders, selection of experts, criteria or procedure for incorporating feedback into decision-making processes. Nor are there avenues for access to justice where stakeholders views are not sought or taken into account in the isas decision-making (). For a regulator acting as a custodian of the common heritage of humankind and taking globally significant decisions about environmental impact, the absence of rules or policies about how it engages its constituency in decisions that affect them is a critical gap in its governance regime, which is envisioned to be elaborated in the form of a standard.
5.5 compliance committee [institutional]
the council has been discussing for some time the establishment of a compliance committee as part of its regulatory architecture under the draft exploitation regulations.40 the intention is to create or designate a mechanism that is subsidiary to, and more agile and specialized than the council, to monitor and assess contractor compliance with their environmental, operational, and reporting obligations in the contract and regulations. Discussions have focused on the committees mandate, composition, and relationship to other organs of the isa, particularly the ltc, and the secretariats inspectorate. While many delegations support the creation of an independent and technically competent body to enhance oversight, others have raised concerns, e.G., About duplication, cost, legal authority. There have been various state-led proposals as to compliance committee constitution, each conflicting with the others. At negotiations during the isas 2025 sessions, there seemed to be convergence toward a compromise with states parties engaged in the discussion generally agreeing to the establishment of a compliance committee as a subsidiary organ of the council (see text footnote 21). But the functions, powers and relationships with other isa bodies make the compliance committee a contested but pivotal element in the isas evolving governance framework. The development of standards to operationalize the compliance committee therefore also faces significant pressure to meet divergent expectations. No work has commenced on such standards and neither has the scope of its content been discussed.
we can surmise that standards governing the compliance committee could specify its operational procedures (including meeting modalities and decision-making protocols). Standards might also establish the isas approach to compliance and enforcement, and define the scope of compliance reviews, criteria for triggering investigations, modalities for contractor engagement, evidential requirements and procedure and triggers for use of legal powers. Standards may also outline inspection protocols, reporting formats, internal and external information-sharing arrangements, confidentiality provisions, and escalation pathways to the council. The isa currently lacks a compliance procedure (). Standards on compliance therefore seem likely to involve substantive detail and regulatory complexity.
6 conclusion and recommendation
the threat of mining in the area outside of the framework of the isa may apply new pressure on the isa to adopt the rrps for exploitation. However, any new timelines for the adoption of the regulations cannot overlook the volume and complexity of work that remains to develop the requisite s&g alongside them. This paper shows:
the s&g framework has developed through technical workshops and ltc reports since 2019, but key elements—including scope, legal status, and development procedures—have not been formalized through council decisions, creating procedural uncertainty;
the number of s&g required (including at least 57 specifically requiring legally binding standards);
slow pace of progress to date, with only 10 draft s&g documents prepared between 2020 and 2022, which are now out-of-step with subsequent iterations of the regulations; and
the critical importance of the content of s&g to the required regulatory regime for the area.
taken together, these findings demonstrate the volume of s&gs yet to be developed, coupled with the absence of a council-agreed institutional framework to develop, prioritize and adopt them. They also illustrate the extent to which the operationalization of the exploitation regulations depends on the parallel development of their subsidiary instruments.
against this backdrop, the time is ripe for the isas council to take leadership over s&g. The mantra “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”41 is much cited, but the council has not crystallized the extent to which it applies to technical, operational, or procedural elaboration subsidiary to the regulations. In any event, learning from early drafting attempts, it seems clear that: the interrelationship between the regulations and the s&g makes it impossible to address them in silos or adopt them independently. And if core regulatory precepts are to be included in standards, then the same level of attention and resources that the draft regulations have received at the isa need to be applied to the standards. The isa is a more effective institution if it sets realistic timelines for its members and for its stakeholders. It is therefore recommended that the council develop with some urgency a plan for the s&g—or at least the standards given their legally binding role—that is “smart,” i.E., Specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound, with clear allocation of responsibilities and budget.42 in order to address the gaps in s&g development identified in this paper, we suggest the following content for such a plan or roadmap.
(1) an accurate, complete, council-agreed list of standards (or s&g).
(2) a decision of the council on the phasing of s&g, which applies objective criteria and justification for the phase-allocation, such that:
a. Almost all standards are addressed as “phase 1,” i.E., To be adopted alongside the regulations,
b. Any other standards are identified that can be addressed at a later stage (i.E., Post-adoption of regulations, but before exploitation commences).
(3) formalization of a process for s&g development, including public consultation periods and procedures, and delineation of the role and accountabilities of the secretariat, the ltc, the council and any external personnel in drafting, reviewing and adopting the s&g.
(4) agreement to prioritize standards, with guidelines being drafted, reviewed and adopted on a rolling basis.
(5) agreement to review and update the list of standards every isa session, based on the ongoing work of the council, including the informal intersessional working groups.
(6) clear timescales, deadlines, and allocation of resources and responsibilities for each s&g.
(7) agreement that s&g will be included as an agenda item for each council meeting, with a direction for a representative of the responsible organ (e.G., The chair of the ltc or the secretary-general) to provide a report back on progress, against the plan and its smart indicators.
by embracing a structured and transparent approach to subsidiary instrument development, the isa, in particular, its council in exercising its rule-making and supervisory function, can show its credibility as a global regulator and steward of the common
heritage of humankind. A well-articulated plan for s&g, anchored in scientific evidence, inclusive consultation, and institutional coordination, would not only support the effective implementation of the exploitation regulations but also demonstrate the isas commitment to due process, precaution, and accountability. In doing so, the isa has the opportunity to set a precedent much-needed in the current climate, for how complex, high-stakes resource governance can be undertaken responsibly and with legitimacy via multilateral process.
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footnotes
1.^Unclos art. 136. Although unclos refers to the “common heritage of mankind,” we use the term “humankind” in this article, as the gender-neutral formulation now prevalent in international legal writing and practice. The substitution is not intended to imply any departure from the treaty text.
2.^Unclos arts. 140 and 157(1), 145, 140(2), and 150–151.
3.^Unclos arts. 162(2)(o), 153 and annex iii. The isas council has repeatedly stated that that the exploitation in the area cannot be carried out in the absence of the relevant rrps (e.G., In decisions isba/28/c/24 and isba/28/c/25, from july 2023, accessible here: http://isa.Org.Jm/sessions/28th-session-2023/).
4.^“S&g” in this paper refers to standards and guidelines when they are addressed collectively, but “standard(s)” and “guideline(s)” will be used where individually there is a reference to a specific instrument, or where there is discussion of differences between these two types of subsidiary instruments.
5.^For example, isa contractors who have written repeatedly to the isa urging clarity on the legal framework for mining, see letters of january 2025 here: https://isa.Org.Jm/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/letter-of-contractors-14-january-2025.Pdf and march 2026 here: https://isa.Org.Jm/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/20260303_gsr-response-to-isa-delay-regs.Pdf. The ceo of the parent company of two isa exploration contractors also published a statement bemoaning the perceived delays in the adoption of the exploitation regulations, here: https://metals.Co/ceo-statement-on-isa-and-usa/. The lack of regulatory clarity has also been the subject of academic commentary, see: ; . A number of isa member states have also expressed concern about the lack of clear legal rules for mining, evincing policy positions in favor of a moratorium or precautionary pause until such time as the relevant regulations are robust and in place, see —in particular table 2.
6.^Deep seabed mining: revisions to regulations for exploration license and commercial recovery permit applications, national oceanic and atmospheric administration, 01/21/2026, https://www.Federalregister.Gov/documents/2026/01/21/2026-01044/deep-seabed-mining-revisions-to-regulations-for-exploration-license-and-commercial-recovery-permit.
8.^For example, interventions by states at the isa councils march 2026 meeting, from the authors own contemporaneous observations (summarized here: https://enb.Iisd.Org/international-seabed-authority-isa-council-31-1-summary). See also the contractor letters and statements, cited at text footnote 5.
9.^Draft regulations (drs) 45, 94 and 95 1bis, further revised consolidated text: draft regulations on exploitation of mineral resources in the area, isba/31/c/crp.1/rev.2, 15 february 2026. Please also see the isas website for more information and links to historical documents https://isa.Org.Jm/the-mining-code/standards-and-guidelines/.
10.^Dr 94 1bis, further revised consolidated text: draft regulations on exploitation of mineral resources in the area, isba/31/c/crp.1/rev.2, 15 february 2026.
11.^Draft regulation 95, issuance of guidelines, paragraphs 3 and 4, isba/30/c/crp.1, 10 january 2025.
12.^Development of standards and guidelines for activities in the area—note by the secretariat, 12 june 2026 advance unedited version [isba/31/ltc/8] https://isa.Org.Jm/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/isba_31_ltc_8_auv.Pdf.
13.^The authors provide an updated note, from their own observations from in-person attendance and from their own contemporaneous note-taking (copies available upon request), that contrary to the position we evince here, and to the councils own repeated mantra of “nothings agreed until everything is agreed,” in march 2026 two delegations proposed that the regulations should be agreed first and separately, before the council moves to work on standards. Such a proposal was also foreshadowed in . From authors own observations and notes, several other delegations expressed unwillingness to take that approach at the march 2026 council meeting.
14.^Supra text footnote 13.
16.^Decision of the council of the international seabed authority relating to the reports of the chair of the legal and technical commission, isba/25/c/37, https://isa.Org.Jm/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/c37-e.Pdf.
17.^Workshop on the development of standards and guidelines for the mining code. Https://isa.Org.Jm/events/workshop-on-the-development-of-standards-and-guidelines-for-the-mining-code/.
18.^This seems to be the original conceptualization of the role that “standards” could play in the isa regulations, in the 2015 secretariat report that was a precursor to the zero draft of the regulations: “developing a regulatory framework for mineral exploitation in the area” (https://www.Isa.Org.Jm/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/report-2015.Pdf)—see page 43.
19.^The workshop report is available online here: /https://www.Isa.Org.Jm/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/pretoria_workshop_report-final.Pdf [accessed 22 june 2025].
20.^A “zero draft” is a term used in international negotiations for the initial un-negotiated text of a draft instrument, prepared by the secretariat or facilitator, to provide a starting point for discussion. A call for proposals for the preparation of s&gs in december 2021 suggests that a legal consultant was sought to prepare first drafts of 23 s&gs https://www.Isa.Org.Jm/news/deadline-call-proposals-preparation-phase-two-standards-and-guidelines-activities-area/.
21.^Authors own contemporaneous notes taken during the session—copy available upon request.
22.^Page 17, workshop report, development of standards and guidelines for activities in the area, pretoria, 13–15 may 2019 https://www.Isa.Org.Jm/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/pretoria_workshop_report-final.Pdf.
23.^Isa, submissions received with respect to the stakeholder consultations on standards and guidelines, accessed june 15, 2023, submissions received with respect to the stakeholder consultations on standards and guidelines—international seabed authority (isa.Org.Jm).
24.^Statement by the president of the council on the work of the council during the first part of the twenty-seventh session, 12 april 2022 [isba/27/c/21], available here: https://isa.Org.Jm/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/isba_27_c_21-2205582e.Pdf; also authors own in-person observations and contemporaneous notes of the isas 27th session (copies available upon request). See also the secretariats note of june 2026, supra. Text footnote 13.
25.^Paragraph 3, decision of the council of the international seabed authority relating to the reports of the chair of the legal and technical commission, isba/27/c/44.
26.^Further revised consolidated text (revision 3), isba/31/c/crp.1/rev.3 https://isa.Org.Jm/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/further-revised-consolidated-text-rev.3-isba-31-c-crp.1-rev.3.Pdf.
27.^Revised suspense document, elements to be relocated from the draft regulations on exploitation of mineral resources in the area to the standard and guidelines and other rules, regulations and procedures of the authority, isba/30/c/crp.2.
28.^See paragraph 17, statement of the president on the work of the council of the international seabed authority during the first part of the thirtieth session, isba/30/c/5.
see workshop report and isa secretariat note .
30.^See discussion on the 2-year rule examining the divergent readings of section 1(15), notably that while one interpretation suggests the council must “consider” an application after the 2-year period, another stresses that this does not impose any obligation to approve or allow exploitation without a completed regulatory framework ().
31.^See the reports on each thematic topic, here: https://isa.Org.Jm/session-31-council-part-2-july-2026/. It is possible that this approach follows a similar pattern in other multilateral processes, where difficult issues are deferred to another, subsequent negotiation in order to secure initial basic agreement on high-level text (see, e.G., , In relation to the bbnj agreement).
32.^See https://isa.Org.Jm/the-mining-code/standards-and-guidelines/. Also , table 3.
33.^Decision of the council of the international seabed authority relating to the development of binding environmental threshold values, isba/27/c/42, https://isa.Org.Jm/documents/isba-27-c-42/.
34.^Comment box from the president, section 6, dr 36—insurance, revised consolidated text.
36.^See the “test mining” tab on the isa webpage for the first part of the 30th session of the isa council, here: https://isa.Org.Jm/session-30-council-part-1-march-2025/. Also the proposal on test mining by germany, belgium and china https://www.Isa.Org.Jm/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/joint-proposal-by-germany-belgium-and-china_final.Pdf and https://www.Isa.Org.Jm/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/20250718-openissues-tm-pm_rev_clean.Pdf.
37.^Communications and stakeholder engagement strategy, international seabed authority, https://www.Isa.Org.Jm/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/draft_comms_and_stakeholder_engagement_strategy.Pdf.
38.^Outcomes of the informal group discussing standardisation of stakeholder consultation, https://www.Isa.Org.Jm/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/outcomes-discussion-standardisation-stakeholder-consultations.Pdf.
39.^See statements by international experts (https://unece.Org/sites/default/files/2024-03/wgp27_ppif_session_statement_on_isa_by__experts_0.Pdf and https://unece.Org/sites/default/files/2024-07/item5_ppif_iv_general_discussion_isa_hannah-lily_statement.Pdf); and un ohchr (https://unece.Org/sites/default/files/2024-07/ac_wgp-28_item5_ppif_iv_isa_ohchr-statement.Pdf) accessible from the landing page here: https://unece.Org/environmental-policy/events/twenty-eighth-meeting-working-group-parties-aarhus-convention; and , and .
40.^See for example the “ice mechanism” tab on the isa webpage for the first part of the 30th session of the isa council, here: https://isa.Org.Jm/session-30-council-part-1-march-2025/, and for the second part of the 29th session of the isa council here: https://isa.Org.Jm/session-29-council-part-2-july-2024/.
41.^Paragraph 4, decision of the council of the international seabed authority on a timeline following the expiration of the two-year period pursuant to section 1, paragraph 15, of the annex to the agreement relating to the implementation of part xi of the united nations convention on the law of the sea, isba/28/c/24, https://isa.Org.Jm/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/2314552e.Pdf.
42.^Smart indicators are a commonly used project management tool [doran, management review 70 (1981)].
references
1
ardronj. A.Lilyh.Jaeckela. (2023). “Public participation in the governance of deep-seabed mining in the area,” in research handbook on international marine environmental law, 2nd edn., Eds r. Rayfuse, a. Jaeckel, and n. Klein (cheltenham: edward elgar publishing), 361–384. Doi: 10.4337/9781789909081.00026
2
caod.Maoz.Zhangz.Liuh. (2026). Beyond diplomatic victory: foreseeable challenges in the implementation of the bbnj agreement. Ocean coast. Manag.276:108167. Doi: 10.1016/j.Ocecoaman.2026.108167
3
international seabed authority (2025). Presentation on environmental threshold values by the ltc co-chairs.Kingston: international seabed authority. Available online at:
https://www.Isa.Org.Jm/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/presentation-on-environmental-threshold-values-by-the-ltc-co-chairs-8-july-2025.Pdf(accessed july 8, 2025).4
isa workshop (2017). Towards an isa environmental management strategy for the area. Berlin. Available online at:
https://isa.Org.Jm/events/workshop-towards-an-isa-environmental-management-strategy-for-the-area/(accessed july 31, 2026).5
krögerk.Collinsr.Wheelera.Diash.Collinsp. (2025). The legal landscape for deep-sea mining in the area: a primer for practitioners. Elem. Sci. Anth.13:00072. Doi: 10.1525/elementa.2024.00072
6
lilyh.Chakrabortya. (2025). “Navigating challenges in inspection, compliance and enforcement (‘ice) for deep-seabed mining beyond national jurisdiction,” in deep-sea mining management, policy and regulation, ed. R. Sharma (cham: springer), 447–484. Doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-92737-9_15
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morgerae.Lilyh. (2022). Public participation at the international seabed authority: an international human rights law analysis. Reciel31, 374–388. Doi: 10.1111/reel.12472
8
pecoraroa.Lilyh.Singhp. (2024). The international seabed authority and the push for exploitation of deep seabed minerals: does the doctrine of legitimate expectations apply?. J. World invest. Trade25, 698–741. Doi: 10.1163/22119000-12340344
9
pickensc.Lilyh.Harrould-koliebe.Blanchardc.Chakrabortya. (2024). From what-if to what-now: status of the deep-sea mining regulations and underlying drivers for outstanding issues. Mar. Policy169:105967. Doi: 10.1016/j.Marpol.2023.105967
10
singhp. A. (2022). The invocation of the ‘two-year rule at the international seabed authority: legal consequences and implications. Int. J. Mar. Coast. Law37, 375–412. Doi: 10.1163/15718085-bja10098
11
singhp. A.Jaeckela.Ardronj. A. (2025). A pause or moratorium for deep seabed mining in the area? The legal basis, potential pathways, and possible policy implications. Ocean dev. Int. Law56, 18–44. Doi: 10.1080/00908320.2024.2439877
12
xux.Chenl.Xueg. (2025). Will the isa exploitation regulations ever be adopted?”Int. J. Mar. Coast. Law40:756. Doi: 10.1163/15718085-bja10270
summary
keywords
deep sea mining, exploitation regulations, international seabed authority (isa), mining code, standards and guidelines
citation
chakraborty a and lily h (2026) subsidiary but central: the role of standards and guidelines in regulating deep seabed mining. Front. Ocean sustain. 4:1838030. Doi: 10.3389/focsu.2026.1838030
received
24 march 2026
revised
08 july 2026
accepted
21 july 2026
published
13 august 2026
volume
4 - 2026
edited by
sarah lothian, university of wollongong, australia
reviewed by
kerstin kröger, joint nature conservation committee, united kingdom
kristine elfrida dalaker, university of wollongong—innovation campus, australia
updates
copyright
© 2026 chakraborty and lily.
this is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the creative commons attribution license (cc by). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
*correspondence: anindita chakraborty, achakraborty@pewtrusts.Org
disclaimer
all claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher. |
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